Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center


Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics


About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum



Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b. Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


ENSO Alert System Status:  El Nino Advisory




There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Nino conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.




            During February 2015, El Nino conditions were observed as the above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18) became weakly coupled to the tropical atmosphere.  The monthly Niño indices were +0.6C in the Nino-3.4 region, +1.0C in the Nino-4 region, +0.2C in the Nino-3 region, and -0.6C in the Nino-1+2 region (Table T2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in positive subsurface anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). Consistent with weak coupling, the frequency and strength of low-level westerly wind anomalies increased over the equatorial Pacific during the last month and a half (Fig. T13). At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds persisted across the east-central Pacific (Fig. T21).  Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative for two consecutive months (Fig. T2).  Convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and near average around the Date Line (Fig. T25).  Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Nino conditions. 

            Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Nino (3-month values of the Nino-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5C) will continue throughout 2015 (Figs. F1-F13).  This result is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific.  However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Nino through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Nino conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

            Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).          


NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: March 2015
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities