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NCEP Markov Model Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region
MARCH 2009
FIGURE F6.
Time evolution of observed and predicted SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (up to 12 lead months) by the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871). Anomalies are calculated relative to the 1971-2000 climatology. Shown in each panel are the forecasts grouped by three consecutive starting months: (a) is for December, January, and February, (b) is for March, April, and May, (c) is for June, July, and August, and (d) is for September, October, and November. The observed Nino 3.4 SST anomalies are indicated by the black dashed lines. The Nino 3.4 region spans the east-central equatorial Pacific between 5N-5S, 170W-120W.
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