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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JUNE 2010

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch      

Outlook:  

            La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July – August 2010.

Discussion:    

During June 2010, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies expanding across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T18).  While the rate of decrease slowed during June, all of the Niño indices were cooler compared to the previous month (Table T2).  The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained below-average during the month.  Subsurface temperature anomalies became increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific and extended to the surface across the eastern half of the basin (Fig. T17).  Also during June, enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia, while the area of suppressed convection strengthened and expanded westward over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).  Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20, T21).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Niña conditions.       

The majority of models now predict La Niña conditions (SST anomalies less than or equal to -0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region) to develop during June-August and to continue through early 2011 (Figs. F1-F13).  Confidence in this outcome is reinforced by the recent performance of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), the large reservoir of colder-than-average subsurface water, and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation.  Therefore, La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July-August 2010. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).