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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JUNE 2011

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active   

Outlook:  

           ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.

Discussion:    

During June 2011, ENSO-neutral conditions continued as reflected by the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  Other than Niño-1+2, all of the monthly Niño index values were near average (Table T2).  The subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained elevated, but weakened slightly throughout the month, in accordance with the declining strength of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. T17).  While weak, the atmospheric circulation anomalies remained consistent with certain aspects of La Niña.  In particular, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. T25).  Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central Pacific (Figs. T20, T21).  Collectively, these tropical Pacific anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, but the atmospheric circulation continues to be characteristic of La Niña. 

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Figs. F1-F13).   However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011. Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month.  However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).