Tropical Highlights
JULY 2011
Forecast Forum
ENSO-neutral
conditions continued during July 2011 as sea surface temperatures were
near-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,
except the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.
T18, Table T2).
The latest monthly Niņo indices were -0.2°C for the Niņo
3.4 region and +0.5°C for the Niņo
1+2 region (Table T2, Fig. T5).
Consistent with these conditions, the oceanic thermocline (measured by
the depth of the 20°C
isotherm) was shallower than average in the east-central equatorial Pacific and
remained slightly deeper than average in the far eastern Pacific (Figs. T15
and T16).
The corresponding sub-surface temperatures were below average in the
east-central equatorial Pacific and near-average in the eastern Pacific (Fig. T17).
The
atmospheric circulation patterns during July continued to show some weak La Niņa
impacts. The equatorial low-level
easterly trade winds and upper-level westerly winds remained stronger than
average over the central equatorial Pacific (Table T1, Figs.
T20 and T21),
while convection remained enhanced over Indonesia/western equatorial Pacific and
suppressed across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs.
T25 and E3).
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral
conditions but with weakening La Niņa impacts in the atmosphere.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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