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Extratropical Highlights
AUGUST 2007
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The
500-hPa height pattern during August featured positive anomalies over the
eastern
United States
, the central North Atlantic, western
Russia
, Greenland, and
Alaska
, and negative anomalies over western
Canada
and central
Siberia
(Figs. E9, E11). At
200-hPa, the streamfunction field indicated an extensive area of positive
anomalies (reflecting anticyclonic circulation anomalies) spanning the
U.S.
, the North Atlantic, and most of Europe and northwestern
Africa
(Fig. T22). A strong
inter-hemispheric symmetry of this pattern is also evident, suggesting links to
the distribution of anomalous tropical convection. In particular, this
circulation pattern likely is consistent with 1) the continuation of conditions
that have been in place since the current active Atlantic hurricane era began in
1995 (
Bell
and Chelliah, 2006, J. Climate. 19, 590-612), and 2) the ongoing
La Niņa-related pattern of anomalous tropical convection. The eastern portion
of this streamfunction anomaly pattern has been a mainstay of the August-October
circulation since 1995. These anomalies are partly related to the combination of
an enhanced West African monsoon system and suppressed convection over the
Amazon
Basin
. This combination was again pronounced during August 2007 (Fig.
T24).
The
main surface temperature departures during August reflected warmer than average
conditions across the
United States
,
Alaska
, western
Russia
, and central
China
, and cooler than average conditions in western
Canada
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation anomalies
included above average totals in the mid-western U.S., and below average totals
in the southeastern and
Ohio Valley regions of the U.S., and in the area north of the Caspian
Sea (Figs. E3, E6).
a.
North America
The
500-hPa circulation pattern during August featured above-average heights over
the eastern
U.S.
and much of
Alaska
, and below-average heights across the western half of
Canada
(Fig. E9). The surface temperature anomalies
were very consistent with this pattern. The most significant anomalous warmth
(+1°-3°C above average) was recorded in the southwestern and southeastern
states, and in western Alaska, were temperatures were generally in the upper 90th
percentile of occurrences.
In
the continental
U.S.
, the main precipitation departures reflected above-average totals in the
Midwest, and below-average totals in the southeastern and
Ohio
Valley
regions (Fig. E3, E6).
Long-term precipitation deficits have resulted in severe drought in both
regions.
b. Europe/ western
Russia
The
500-hPa circulation pattern during August featured an anomalous wave pattern
extending from the central North Atlantic Ocean to central
Russia
(Fig. E9). This pattern featured strong ridges
over the central North Atlantic and central
Russia
, and a deep trough over
Europe
. The persistent ridge in western
Russia
contributed to exceptionally warm and dry conditions throughout the region.
2.
Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height anomalies
during August exhibited a pronounced zonal wave-1 pattern, with above-average
heights from
Australia
to South America, and below-average heights across the southeastern South
Atlantic and southern
Indian
Oceans
(Fig. E15). Below-average heights were also
observed over the high latitudes of the central South Pacific Ocean, and over
southern
South America
. In the subtropics, negative (anticyclonic) streamfunction anomalies at 200-hPa
extended from southeastern
Brazil
to southern Africa, and from
Australia
to the eastern South Pacific (Fig. T22). Over
the
South Pacific Ocean
, the anticyclonic anomalies were centered along the axis of the wintertime
South Pacific jet stream, and reflected a pronounced weakening and westward
retraction of the jet core (Fig. T21). This
jet structure is consistent with La Niņa conditions.
In southern
Australia
, the anomalous anticyclonic circulation was associated with exceptionally warm
and dry conditions. In portions of the southeast, temperatures were in the
highest 90th percentile of occurrences and rainfall totals were in
the lowest 10th percentile of occurrences.
Extratropical
South America
was influenced by a strong upper-level trough during August, with a substantial
southeastward transport of cold air evident upstream of the trough axis. These
conditions contributed to well below-average temperatures across the southern
half of the continent, with many areas recording values in the lowest 10th
percentile of occurrences. This pattern reflects a continuation of the
exceptionally cold temperatures observed during July.
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