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Tropical Highlights
OCTOBER 2009
Forecast Forum
Sea surface
temperature (SST) anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean during October 2009(Fig. T18). Consequently,
all of the Niņo-region
SST indices were above +0.8°C throughout the month, except for the Niņo1+2
index, which dropped to +0.0°C
during October (Table T2,
Fig. T5). The oceanic
thermocline along the equator, measured by the depth of the 20°C
isotherm, remained deeper than average across the
Pacific Ocean
(Figs. T15, T16).
Consistent with these conditions, temperatures were 1o-4oC
above average at thermocline depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).
Also
during October, convection remained suppressed across Indonesia but enhanced
over the west-central Pacific (Figs. T25,
E3).
In addition, low-level
westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the
equatorial Pacific (Figs.
T20 and T21),
and westerly
wind bursts were observed across the equatorial Pacific during the
month
(Fig. T13). This coupling of the oceanic
and atmospheric anomalies indicates a strengthening El Niņo.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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