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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10


Forecast Forum

OCTOBER 2021

EL NINO /SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May).

 

Discussion:

 

La Niña strengthened in the last month, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evident across most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).  For the past month, all of the Niño index values were between -0.5ºC and -0.8ºC, with the exception of the Niño-1+2 region (Table T2).  Below-average subsurface temperatures (averaged from 180-100ºW) were roughly the same amplitude at this time last month, and reflected the prevalence of below-average temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17).  Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were again observed over parts of the equatorial Pacific, although weaker than last month (Figs. T20 & T21).  Tropical convection was suppressed near and west of the Date Line and was slightly enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25).  The Southern Oscillation Index and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index remained positive (Figs. T1 & T2). Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index favors La Niña to continue through January-March 2022 season (Figs. F1-F12).  The forecaster consensus anticipates La Niña to persist longer, potentially returning to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2022.  The Niño-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0ºC during November 2021 – January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5ºC.  Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored.  In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).


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