Extratropical Highlights
DECEMBER 2008
Forecast Forum
1. Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height
pattern during December 2008 featured positive anomalies across the high
latitudes of the
North Pacific Ocean
, across the
North Atlantic Ocean
, and
Scandinavia
/ western
Russia
, and negative anomalies over
Canada
, southern
Europe
, and eastern
Siberia
(Fig. E9).
In the Pacific/
North America
region, these anomalies partly reflect La Niņa. The subtropical
circulation at 200-hPa was also consistent with La Niņa, with enhanced
mid-Pacific troughs in both hemispheres flanking the suppressed convection over
the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced ridges over the western Pacific
flanking the region of enhanced equatorial convection (Fig. T22).
Associated with this pattern, the East Asian jet stream was notably weaker than
average east of the date line, and the jet core was retracted westward toward
the western Pacific (Fig. T21).
The pattern of land
surface temperature anomalies during December closely resembled the mid-level
circulation, with well above-average temperatures in western
Russia
and below-average temperatures across
Canada
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation
signals during December included above average totals in the central and eastern
U.S.
and southern
Europe
, and below-average totals along the Canadian west coast and the
U.S.Gulf
Coast
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
The 500-hPa
circulation during December reflected La Niņa, with below average heights over
the central subtropical
Pacific Ocean
and western
North America
, and above average heights over the high latitudes of the central North Pacific
(Fig. E9).
These anomalies reflected westward shifts in several main circulation features,
including the exit region of the East Asian jet stream, the mean ridge normally
over western
North America
, and the mean trough axis normally over the eastern
United States
. These conditions were consistent with the La Niņa-related westward retraction
of deep tropical convection toward
Indonesia
.
In
North America
, strong northerly flow resulted in below average temperatures across
Canada
and the northern tier of the western
United States
, with departures in many areas in the lowest 30th percentile of
occurrences (Fig. E1). The precipitation pattern (Fig. E3) also reflected the upper-air
circulation, with above average totals across the central and eastern
U.S.
coinciding with the area downstream of the mean upper-level trough and also
with the right entrance region of the anomalous
North Atlantic
jet stream (Fig. T21).
In contrast, the
Gulf
Coast
region of the
U.S.
recorded below average totals during December. The largest departures were
recorded in
Texas
where totals were in the lowest 10th percentile of occurrences. The
Gulf
Coast
region typically receives below average wintertime precipitation during La Niņa,
as was also observed in 2008 (Fig. E5).
b.
Eurasia
The 500-hPa
circulation featured positive height anomalies across the central
North Atlantic
and western
Russia
, and negative height anomalies over southern
Europe
(Fig. E9). This overall pattern was associated
with a significant poleward transport of heat into northern
Europe
, and with a pronounced northward shift of the mean jet stream across
Scandinavia
and
Russia
. These conditions contributed to a continuation (3 months) of well
above-average temperatures across western
Russia
, and to a slower-than-normal development of the regional snow pack. This
reduced snow cover likely contributed further to the anomalous warmth during the
last three months.
Farther south,
southern
Europe
recorded above average precipitation during December in association with a
large-scale trough across the region. The largest surpluses were observed in the
southern Lee of the
Alps
, where several major winter storms developed downstream of the mean trough
axis.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field during December
featured an anomalous zonal wave-3 pattern, with positive anomalies across the
central ocean basins and negative anomalies across the high latitudes of the
North Pacific and southeastern
Australia
(Fig. E15). This anomaly pattern was also
evident in November, and is generally consistent with La Niņa.
In southern
Africa
, the rainy season extends from October through April. During December, rainfall
was above average for the region as a whole, with area average totals reaching
the 90th percentile of occurrences (Fig.
E4). The most significant surpluses were recorded
in the East, which helped to reduce early-season deficits in central
Mozambique
. For the entire monsoon region, above average totals during both November and
December were consistent with La Niņa.
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