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Topical Collection on CFSv2

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), the fully coupled ocean–land–atmosphere dynamical seasonal prediction system became operational at NCEP in August 2004.  The second version CFSv2 with significant upgrades in data assimilation and forecast model components was operationally implemented at NCEP in March 2011.  To obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP, a coupled reanalysis over a 32-year period (1979–2010) and a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982–2010) were also made.  See the following references for further information.

References

Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System.  J. Climate, 19, 3483–3517.

Saha, S., and Coauthors,  2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2.  J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208.

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NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

To accelerate evaluation of and improvements to the operational Climate Forecast System (CFS) and to enhance its use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate predictions and applications

About CFS

CTB–MAPP Climate Model Development Task Force

●  Teleconferences

Archives:

●  CFSv2 Evaluation Workshop (2012)

●  Strategy white paper (2012)

●  CFSv3 Planning Meeting (2011)

●  Summary report of the CFSv3 Planning Meeting (2011)

Evolving Projects

1 . Enhance the representation of soil-hydrology-vegetation interactions

2. Advances in lake-effect process prediction

3. Improving cloud microphysics and their interactions with aerosols

4. CPT to improve cloud and boundary layer processes

5. A CPT for improving turbulence and cloud processes

CFS Improvement

The NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC), NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB), Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), and NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) organized a CFSv2 Evaluation Workshop in 2012. The purpose of the workshop is to bring the broader climate research and applications community together with NCEP scientists to evaluate the utility of CFSv2 for climate modeling research and as a climate forecast tool.  This topical collection includes a selection of peer-reviewed papers consisting of material presented at the workshop.

The twenty-four papers in this collection have documented significant progress in the performance of CFSv2 in simulating ISI climate variability and predicting key climate variables, in comparison to the previous NCEP operational climate forecast system. The papers have also identified key model biases and deficiencies in predicting climate variables (such as precipitation and temperature), simulating the modes of climate variability and phenomena (such as El Niņo and the Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the Madden–Julian Oscillation or MJO, the Arctic Oscillation or AO, global and regional

drought, and monsoons) and physical processes and their interactions (such as cloud distributions, land–atmosphere interactions, and ocean–atmosphere interactions). This collection of papers is expected to provide insight into and guidance for the development of the next generation operational CFS.

(Click to view the Topical Collection)

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