This project will improve the NMME probabilistic forecasts through addressing systematic biases, allowing for more precise calibration of the forecast anomalies and probabilities. The final product of this project is expected to have greater reliability and accuracy, with the result of higher-quality NMME monthly and seasonal probability forecasts issued each month.   (Learn more …)

The purpose of the project is to develop new operational temperature and precipitation forecast products over North America for lead times of 3 and 4 weeks that would bridge the gap between NCEP/CPC's 8-14 day and monthly outlooks and complete a seamless prediction system that links NOAA's intraseasonal and seasonal forecast products.   (Learn more …)

Development of new forecast products for weeks 3 and 4

To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state-of-the-art science and research

Climate Tools/Products

Improved probabilistic forecast products for the NMME seasonal forecast system

The likelihood of severe convective weather is related to the local atmospheric environment. The empirical relations have recently been shown to capture aspects of the climatology and year-to-year variability of U.S. severe weather on continental and regional scales. Moreover, predicted monthly index values based on the operational NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) have been demonstrated to have statistically significant skill. Given such developments, it is anticipated that operational forecast models may be able to capture meaningful modulation of severe weather environments, and thereby provide forecasters with extended-range guidance about severe weather activity. Two primary obstacles to forecaster use of such tools are the lack of suitable skill assessments and the lack of methodologies with which to identify low-uncertainty forecasts (e.g., on the basis of forecast consistency). The purpose of this project is to provide assessments and tools for CFSv2 forecasts as well as for medium-range forecast models.     (Learn more …)

Assessment of CFS predictions of U.S. severe weather activity

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