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Heat Wave Forecasts - Africa

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 PROBABILITY FORECASTS

POE > 90th and 95th Percentiles for Persisting TMAX AND BIAS CORRECTED TMAX
WEEK1
POE > 90th% 2 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 90th% 3 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 2 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 3 or more days TMAX TMAX BC

WEEK2
POE > 90th% 2 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 90th% 3 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 2 or more days TMAX TMAX BC
POE > 95th% 3 or more days TMAX TMAX BC

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 PROBABILITY FORECASTS

Probability of Exceedance (POE) for Persisting Heat Index
WEEK1
>41degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC
>47degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC
>49degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC

WEEK2
>41degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC
>47degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC
>49degC 3 or more days Raw 3 or more days BC


Probability of Exceedance (POE) for Persisting Maximum Heat Index
WEEK1 (BC)
>41degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days
>43degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days
>45degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days

WEEK2 (BC)
>41degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days
>43degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days
>45degC >1 days >2 days >3 days >4 days >5 days >6 days

NOAA/NCEP GEFS WEEK1 AND WEEK2 DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS

Simple and Overlaid Atmospheric Parameters
WEEK1
TMIN 2m TMAX 2m TAVE 2m RH 2m
div200mb divt200mb div200mb divt200mb
div700mb divt700mb div850mb divt850mb
mslp anom mslp total hgt500mb anom hgt500mb tot

WEEK2
TMIN 2m TMAX 2m TAVE 2m RH 2m
div200mb divt200mb div200mb divt200mb
div700mb divt700mb div850mb divt850mb
mslp anom mslp total hgt500mb anom hgt500mb tot



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Page last modified: February 12, 2012
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