Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System Status is currently “Not 
Active” as ENSO-neutral conditions are present. ENSO-neutral is favored to 
persist through summer 2025 with chances reaching 74% during June-August, and 
remaining above 50% through August-October 2025. ENSO-neutral conditions are 
thus forecast to be present for much of the Seasonal Outlook leads, and are 
highly likely for the first lead, June-July-August (JJA) 2025. 
 
The JJA 2025 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are quite similar to last 
month's lead 2 forecasts of JJA in terms of overall pattern. The JJA 2025 
Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for the entire Contiguous 
U.S. (CONUS), and probabilities are enhanced over the West, Florida, and the 
Northeast. The highest probabilities, reaching 70 to 80%, are found over the 
interior West and southwestern Texas. Over Alaska, slight changes to the 
forecast from last month include the introduction of Equal Chances (EC) of 
above, near, and below normal temperatures over parts of the Northern Mainland, 
and probabilities of above normal temperatures increased to 40 to 50% over the 
southern coast and 50 to 60% over southeastern Alaska. 
 
The JJA 2025 Precipitation Outlook favors a broad region of below normal 
precipitation stretching from the Northwest coast to the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, as well as parts of the Central and Southern Plains. Within this area 
of below normal precipitation, probabilities reach 40 to 50% over much of the 
northern tier, and 50 to 60% over parts of Montana. Above normal precipitation 
is favored over the Southeast and along the East Coast to parts of New England, 
parts of the Southwest (mainly Arizona), and much of Alaska. 
 
EC of above, near, and below normal temperatures or precipitation are indicated 
where there is model and/or tool disagreement, forecast probabilities for each 
category are similar, and temperatures or precipitation are expected to be 
close to the climatological distribution. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
Following the recent period of below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in 
the central Pacific, SSTs have been near average across the central and eastern 
Pacific Ocean since mid-April. The most recent weekly SST departures in the 
Nino3.4 region are around 0.1 degrees Celsius (C), with SST departures in the 
other Nino regions around -0.1 or 0 C. In addition, upper ocean heat anomalies 
significantly weakened through February and March 2025, making way for the 
return of near average temperatures in April 2025. The negative subsurface 
temperature anomalies that had been present in the central and east-central 
Pacific Ocean have weakened as well, and above average temperatures remain in 
the western and central Pacific. Overall, these SST departures and state of the 
equatorial Pacific reflect ENSO neutral conditions. The Madden Julian 
Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to remain weak over the next few weeks as well, 
and as such neither the ENSO or MJO teleconnection are strongly considered for 
early leads. Local SSTs, including above normal SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska, and 
along the Southeast and East coasts of the CONUS, are considered for early 
leads where applicable and relevant. 
 
Local impacts from soil moisture become more of a player as we shift into the 
spring. Negative soil moisture anomalies are present over the Southwest, with 
strong negative anomalies found over much of southwestern and Central Texas. 
There is a sharp gradient to above normal soil moisture anomalies over northern 
Texas, parts of the Lower and southern Middle Mississippi Valley, Tennessee 
Valley, Southeast, and southern Ohio Valley where there has been recent heavy 
rainfall. Below normal soil moisture is also present over parts of the Central 
and Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and the northern parts of the 
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. Given the weakness of ENSO and MJO, 
the state of anomalous soil moisture is weighted more highly than 
teleconnections for this Outlook, particularly for the first lead where soil 
moisture is expected to have more of an impact. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
Though there is some spread amongst models, SST forecasts from the North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) mainly favor ENSO-neutral through JJA. In 
general, ENSO-neutral is favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere 
summer 2025, and chances of ENSO-neutral remain above 50% through 
August-October (ASO) 2025. Following ASO and into December-February (DJF) 2025, 
chances of ENSO-neutral are slightly favored over La Niña, and chances of El 
Niño are least probable comparatively. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, the Coupled Forecast System Model 
Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system were 
used extensively for the first six leads when they are available, as was the 
objective, historical skill weighted consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, 
and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that combines both dynamical and statistical 
forecast information. A consolidation of statistical tools including the 
ENSO-OCN tool, which represents the combined influence of ENSO (when active) 
and decadal timescale trends  in temperature and precipitation (utilizing the 
Optimum Climate Normal, OCN) and dynamical models  is used for the first six 
leads. Following this, the ENSO-OCN forecast tool is used more extensively. The 
presence and forecast of ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions means that longer 
timescale decadal variability in temperature and precipitation are generally 
the largest predictable signal for the seasonal forecasts. Decadal variability 
and trends  are determined from the OCN, representing the difference between the 
most recent 15-year period average seasonal temperature or precipitation and 
the average for the climatology period, from 1991-2020. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JJA 2025 TO JJA 2026 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
The JJA 2025 Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for the 
CONUS. Overall the Temperature Outlook for JJA 2025 is similar to last month, 
though models and tools favored slight warming over e.g. the Northern Plains 
and Southwestern Texas compared to last month. Any differences over CONUS are 
minor, and are mainly due to the shorter lead of models and influence from 
recent rainfall or lack of rainfall on soil moisture which can impact the first 
season. Given the weak teleconnections from ENSO and MJO, this forecast mainly 
relies on dynamical and statistical models, a consolidation of these tools, and 
potential influence from soil moisture. 
 
Probabilities for above normal temperatures are enhanced over the West, 
Southwest, Florida, and New England where there was agreement among dynamical 
models, including NMME and C3S, and statistical tools that include decadal 
variability. Probabilities reach 60 to 70% over parts of the interior West 
where dynamical models  showed stronger probabilities, and over southwestern 
Texas where soil moisture is anomalously low. Probabilities reach 50 to 60% 
over New England and Florida where coastal SSTs and decadal trends  are above 
normal as well as having good agreement among tools. Probabilities are still 
above normal but weaker (33-40%) over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes 
stretching to the northern Gulf states, where model skill is weak (over the 
northern parts of the region) and where soil moisture is anomalously high (over 
southern parts of the region). This may lead to a moderation of the above 
normal temperatures, though likely not enough to tilt probabilities toward 
below normal. Most of Alaska is at least weakly forecast to be above normal, 
with much of the state covered with 33 to 40% probabilities of above normal 
temperatures, though cooler SSTs and a cold signal in NMME, C3S, and CBaM led 
to favored EC over northern Alaska. In contrast, above normal SSTs, better 
model agreement, and decadal trends  enhance the probability of above normal 
temperatures over the southern coast and southeastern parts of the state. 
 
Above normal temperatures are favored for the CONUS and Alaska through ASO 
2025, with higher probabilities over the West and Northeast supported mainly by 
NMME and C3S forecasts and the presence of decadal trends  which tilt odds more 
strongly toward above normal. While much of the CONUS remains above normal in 
September-November (SON) 2025 through November-January (NDJ) 2025, EC is 
indicated over the Northern Plains beginning in SON 2025, which then expands to 
the West Coast and over the western Great Lakes through NDJ 2026. This area of 
EC highlights where signals  are weaker in forecast tools, mainly the ENSO-OCN 
tool, and where dynamical models  have lower skill and disagreement (through 
lead 6). During DJF through February-April (FMA) 2026 slightly enhanced 
probabilities for below-normal temperatures appear in parts of the Northwest 
owing to the ENSO-OCN tool. The longest lead seasonal outlooks through JJA 2026 
are based primarily on signals  due to decadal variability as shown by the OCN 
tool. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The JJA 2025 Precipitation Outlook is also similar to last month's lead 2 JJA 
Precipitation Outlook, with some modifications given more recent information 
and initialization of models and tools. Below normal precipitation is favored 
from the West Coast to the Great Lakes, with weak below normal probabilities 
stretching to southwestern Texas. Probabilities are enhanced over parts of 
Montana mainly due to agreement among models which increased confidence. Above 
normal precipitation is forecast over Arizona, as models and tools depict a 
weakening and westward shift of the above normal precipitation compared to last 
month, and this area of above normal precipitation is maintained through ASO 
2025, though with the more westward orientation favored by our tools. The 
likelihood of an enhanced Southwest Monsoon is weakly increased due to current 
negative soil moisture anomalies and predicted above-normal temperatures, which 
tend to be anti-correlated with monsoon precipitation. Above normal 
precipitation is also favored for the East Coast and much of Alaska for JJA 
through SON 2025, as well as October-December (OND) 2025 for Alaska, supported 
by NMME and C3S. 
 
In general the pattern of below normal precipitation over parts of the northern 
CONUS, and above normal precipitation along the East Coast/parts of the East 
Coast is favored over the through SON 2025. A shift in this spatial pattern is 
seen beginning in OND 2025 where below normal precipitation becomes more 
probable over the Southwest, Southeast, and southern parts of the East Coast, 
and above normal precipitation more probable over the Northern Plains or 
Northwest and Great Lakes through spring 2026. The shift from above normal 
precipitation to below normal precipitation over the Southeast from SON 2025 to 
NDJ 2025 is rapid given climatologies of these seasons as well as weaker 
chances of an El Niño compared to neutral or La Niña conditions in fall and 
winter 2025, which leads to more likely below normal precipitation than above 
normal. Following this, the pattern shifts back to a northern CONUS below 
normal pattern, which is primarily based on the ENSO-OCN tool, though EC is 
dominant across the CONUS given uncertainty in longer lead forecasts. Mild 
probabilities for above normal precipitation are also present over northern 
and/or western Alaska throughout much of the leads given results from the 
ENSO-OCN tool, shifting to EC in April-June (AMJ) 2026 when signals  become too 
weak for confidence in precipitation over Alaska. 
 
FORECASTER: Johnna Infanti 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Jun 19 2025 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$