PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 
830 AM EST THU FEB 21 2019 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2019 
 
THE MARCH 2019 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED BY 
REVIEWING SELECT RECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SUCH ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER, 
COHERENT SUBSEASONAL TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL VARIABILITY INCLUDING THE MJO 
AND EXTENDED-RANGE, SUBSEASONAL AND MONTHLY INTEGRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE. ALSO, IN SOME AREAS LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE UTILIZED. EL 
NINO CONDITIONS WERE NOT HEAVILY CONSIDERED FOR MARCH OUTLOOKS. 
 
THERE ARE HIGH ODDS FOR AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH 
AMERICA AT THE START OF MARCH WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK STRETCHING ACROSS 
ALASKA TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 
HUDSON BAY EXTENDING TO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 10 
DAYS OF THE MONTH. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE SYSTEMS 
AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK 2-4 PERIOD (FIRST 3 WEEKS OF MARCH), ALTHOUGH THERE 
REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS 
ACROSS THE CONUS ESPECIALLY ENTERING WEEK 3. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE SIMILAR TO 
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE EXTENDED-RANGE AND 
SUBSEASONAL FORECASTS FROM NCEP (GEFS AND CFS) ARE MORE EASTWARD SHIFTED THEN 
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD, AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. 
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE PLACEMENT AND WEST-EAST SLOPE OF 
THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND RESULTS IN SOME 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MEAN STORM TRACK IN THIS 
REGION. 
 
THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FROM MONTANA TO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS CORRESPONDING 
TO THE GENERAL CONVERGENCE OF FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS TIME SCALES FOR THE 
LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE MONTH AS A WHOLE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR 
THIS COMES FROM THE MJO WHERE SUBSEQUENT PHASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS 
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN 
TIME. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR A REGION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST 
WHERE LONG TERM POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OFFSET FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MONTH. 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND 
EASTWARD SEABOARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE MORE WESTWARD SHIFTED AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF 
SOLUTION DURING WEEKS 2-4, THE TENDENCY FOR THIS OUTCOME IN RECENT WEEKS AND 
POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE MONTH ASSOCIATED WITH MJO 
FAVORED RIDGE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 
 
FOR PRECIPITATION, THE MARCH OUTLOOK DEPICTS LOW FORECAST COVERAGE AT THIS 
TIME. IT IS EXPECTED WHEN THE OUTLOOK IS UPDATED AND RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 28, 
2019, THERE WILL BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS 
MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A FAVORED WET PATTERN 
FOR THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH 
AND SUPPORTED BY SUBSEASONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS AND ECMWF MODELING 
SYSTEMS. THE MJO ALSO SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH. 
 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF 
NORTHWEST ALASKA, BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMAIN THE FORECAST AT THE 
CURRENT TIME IS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER ABOVE-, NEAR- OR 
BELOW-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION OR "EQUAL CHANCES" (EC). THIS IS DUE 
TO CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY ACROSS THE VARIOUS TIME SCALES, CONFLICTING SIGNALS 
FROM MODELING SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST TOOLS. DESPITE THE EC FORECAST IN 
MANY OF THESE AREAS, THERE WAS SOME SUPPORT FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 
A REGION FROM THE UPPER-MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF THE MEAN 
WEEKS 2-4 EAST-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO 
DESIGNATE A HIGHLIGHTED AREA. MOREOVER, EARLY IN THE MONTH THERE ARE SOME 
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IMPACTING 
CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT SIMILARLY THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS 
QUITE LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO WEAK SIGNALS AND CONFLICTING FORECAST 
TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK 
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING 
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES 
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT 
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. 
 
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON THU FEBRUARY 28 2019 
 
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD. 
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