Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn JAS 2022
    1.5mn ASO 2022
    2.5mn SON 2022
    3.5mn OND 2022
    4.5mn NDJ 2022
    5.5mn DJF 2022
    6.5mn JFM 2023
    7.5mn FMA 2023
    8.5mn MAM 2023
    9.5mn AMJ 2023
   10.5mn MJJ 2023
   11.5mn JJA 2023
   12.5mn JAS 2023
    0.5mn Jul 2022


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2022

The updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for July 2022 reflect recent
dynamical model guidance from the GEFS, ECMWF and CFSv2, as well as current WPC
week 1 outlooks and the CPC week 2 and week 3-4 outlooks. Tropical convective
activity in recent months has been related to a series of fast moving Kelvin
waves. Current tropical circulation and convection project onto an active
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent based on the
Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The GEFS and ECMWF predict continued
eastward propagation of the MJO into the Western Pacific, potentially impacting
the climate over North America during July. La Niña conditions continue across
the equatorial Pacific, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
over much of the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. However, sea surface
temperatures have warmed across most of this region in recent weeks, and the
Niño 3.4 SST anomaly has decreased in magnitude to -0.6 degrees C. Positive
subsurface ocean temperature anomalies continue to expand eastward across most
of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature
anomalies persist near the surface over the central Pacific Ocean and at depth
over the Eastern Pacific. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through
July and may impact the climate of North America. An active MJO over the
Maritime Continent could reinforce La Niña impacts. Land surface soil moisture
conditions were also consulted for the updated July outlook.

The temperature outlook for July indicates enhanced probabilities for above
normal temperatures for southeastern Alaska including the northern Alaska
Panhandle, consistent with the CPC temperatures outlooks for the 6-10 day, week
2, and week 3-4 periods, as well as forecast guidance from the CFSv2 for July
and the consolidation of GEFS and CFSv2 temperature forecasts for weeks 1
through 4. Uncertainty has increased among the forecast tools for other areas
of Alaska, such that equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures
are predicted for all other areas of the state. The temperature outlook for
July indicates enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures for coastal
areas of the Pacific Northwest, reflecting WPC temperature outlooks for the
first week of the month, CPC temperature outlooks for the 6-10 day period from
earlier in the week, as well as a consolidation of GEFS and CFSv2 temperature
forecasts for weeks 1 through 4. Troughing and below normal temperatures over
the west coast of the CONUS are consistent with La Niña impacts at this time of
year. Above normal temperatures are favored for much of the central and eastern
CONUS for July, excluding most of the Great Lakes region, under predicted
positive 500-hPa height anomalies in dynamical model guidance and consistent
with the CPC 6-10 day, week 2, and week 3-4 outlooks. Above normal temperatures
are slightly favored for the Southwest Monsoon region, consistent with the week
2 outlook, where enhanced monsoon precipitation may moderate temperatures.
Significant heat and probabilities for above normal temperatures exceeding 60
percent are forecast over the central CONUS, including parts of the Central and
Southern Plains.

The precipitation outlook for July indicates a slightly enhanced probability of
above normal precipitation over western Mainland Alaska, east of a predicted
trough during much of July, and consistent with CPC precipitation outlooks for
the 6-10 day, week 2, and week 3-4 periods. Below normal precipitation is
favored from the California Sierras across the Great Basin to the Rockies,
consistent with the precipitation outlooks for the 6-10 day, week 2, and week
3-4 periods and CFSv2 precipitation forecasts for July. An enhanced monsoon is
predicted early in the month as well as in recent 6-10 day, week 2, and week
3-4 outlooks, leading to predicted above normal precipitation across much of
the region in the July outlook. Below normal precipitation continues to be
favored for parts of the Central Plains, Southern Plains, and Central
Mississippi Valley and has been extended southward into much of Texas in the
updated July outlook, consistent with current model guidance, particularly for
early in the month. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for much
of the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to southern New England, including a
greater area of the Florida Peninsula and Southeast, consistent with current
dynamical model forecasts for July.

------------------- Previous Mid-Month Discussion Follows -------------------

La Niña conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific, with negative sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies over much of the east-central and eastern
Pacific Ocean. However, negative SST anomalies weakened in magnitude and are
generally between -0.5 and -1.0 degrees C over most of the equatorial
east-central Pacific in recent weeks. Convection continues to be suppressed
near the Date Line and additionally over the western Pacific. Low-level
easterly winds are enhanced over parts of the east-central equatorial Pacific
Ocean, while upper-level westerly winds are enhanced across most of the central
and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies
persist near the surface from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to the
eastern Pacific Ocean, while positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist
at depths of about 100 to 200 m across the western and central equatorial
Pacific Ocean.

Consolidated dynamical model forecasts from the North America Multi-Model
Ensemble (NMME) predict an initial weakening in the magnitude of negative SST
anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, bordering on ENSO-neutral conditions,
slightly warmer than the -0.5 degree C threshold, with an increase in the
magnitude of negative SST anomalies later in the boreal summer and into autumn.
However, the CPC/IRI consensus ENSO outlook favors persistence of La Niña
through summer with probabilities exceeding 50 percent, but indicates some
uncertainty and the nearly as likely potential for ENSO-neutral conditions in
the first seasonal lead, July-August-September (JAS). Although the impacts of a
potentially ongoing La Niña influence the July temperature and precipitation
outlooks for North America, the potential for ENSO-neutral conditions during
the month of July limits the extent of use of ENSO-based forecast tools.

The Real-time Multivariate Madden Julian Oscillation (RMM) index indicates
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions have weakened. Forecasts of the MJO
are highly uncertain at this time, and MJO does not play a role in the climate
outlook for July. Dynamical model forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
forecast systems for the beginning of July predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa
height anomalies over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), centered over the
northwestern CONUS. Near-zero or negative mid-level height anomalies and a
trough are predicted over the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific to the west of
the CONUS. This predicted circulation pattern influences the temperature and
precipitation forecasts for the beginning of July. The temperature and
precipitation outlooks for July are based primarily on dynamical model
forecasts from the NMME, the Copernicus International Multi-Model Ensemble
(IMME or C3S), statistical tools, including the constructed analog of lagged
temperature and precipitation based on current soil moisture conditions, and
statistical forecasts of temperature and precipitation based on forecasts of
the Niño 3.4 SST and on decadal trends . In addition, consolidations of
statistical and dynamical tools for temperature and precipitation were
consulted.

The July temperature outlook slightly favors above normal temperatures across
western Alaska, including Mainland Alaska and parts of the Aleutians, supported
primarily by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. Below normal temperatures
are more likely for the southern Alaska Panhandle and the Washington and Oregon
coasts, supported by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, as well as the
GEFS temperature forecast for early July. Above normal temperatures are favored
over a large area of the CONUS, consistent with NMME forecasts and the
consolidation of statistical and dynamical forecast tools. Decadal trends as
well as dry soil moisture conditions increase the probabilities for above
normal temperature over much of the West, centered around the Central High
Plains, and for parts of the Northeast. Probabilities for above normal
temperatures are moderated over parts of the Southwest Monsoon region due to
enhanced monsoon precipitation. Weaker signals and greater uncertainty among
temperature tools lead to lower probabilities for above normal temperatures
across the Central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

The July precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation across most of
Alaska including the Alaska Panhandle, and excluding southwestern Mainland
Alaska and the Aleutians, consistent with the NMME mean anomalies, as well as
the impacts of La Niña and decadal trends . With the location of positive
500-hPa height anomalies and a ridge predicted over the northwestern CONUS in
the GEFS and ECMWF dynamical model forecasts for early July, as well as
antecedent above normal temperatures and dry soil moisture conditions, an
enhanced monsoon and above normal precipitation are favored for much of the
Southwest, including most of Arizona, parts of southern Utah, and parts of
western New Mexico. Below normal precipitation is favored in the July monthly
outlook for a large area of the central CONUS to the east of the Rockies, from
the central High Plains to the Central Mississippi Valley and western areas of
the Ohio Valley, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the GEFS and
ECMWF for the beginning of the month and the NMME and IMME forecasts for the
full month. Dynamical model forecasts support slightly enhanced probabilities
for above normal precipitation along the Atlantic Coast from northern Florida
to southern New England, with greater probabilities due to decadal trends over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

The next monthly outlook...for Aug ... will be issued on Thu Jul 21 2022

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period.
$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities