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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn Mar 2019


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 21 2019


30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2019

THE MARCH 2019 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED BY
REVIEWING SELECT RECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS SUCH ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER,
COHERENT SUBSEASONAL TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL VARIABILITY INCLUDING THE MJO
AND EXTENDED-RANGE, SUBSEASONAL AND MONTHLY INTEGRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. ALSO, IN SOME AREAS LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE UTILIZED. EL
NINO CONDITIONS WERE NOT HEAVILY CONSIDERED FOR MARCH OUTLOOKS.

THERE ARE HIGH ODDS FOR AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA AT THE START OF MARCH WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK STRETCHING ACROSS
ALASKA TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY EXTENDING TO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 10
DAYS OF THE MONTH. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK 2-4 PERIOD (FIRST 3 WEEKS OF MARCH), ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE CONUS ESPECIALLY ENTERING WEEK 3. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE EXTENDED-RANGE AND
SUBSEASONAL FORECASTS FROM NCEP (GEFS AND CFS) ARE MORE EASTWARD SHIFTED THEN
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD, AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE PLACEMENT AND WEST-EAST SLOPE OF
THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MEAN STORM TRACK IN THIS
REGION.

THE MARCH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM MONTANA TO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS CORRESPONDING
TO THE GENERAL CONVERGENCE OF FORECAST TOOLS ACROSS TIME SCALES FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER THE MONTH AS A WHOLE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
THIS COMES FROM THE MJO WHERE SUBSEQUENT PHASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN
TIME.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLIGHTED FOR A REGION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE LONG TERM POSITIVE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SOME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE ANTICIPATED TO OFFSET FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MONTH.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTWARD SEABOARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE MORE WESTWARD SHIFTED AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF
SOLUTION DURING WEEKS 2-4, THE TENDENCY FOR THIS OUTCOME IN RECENT WEEKS AND
POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE MONTH ASSOCIATED WITH MJO
FAVORED RIDGE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR PRECIPITATION, THE MARCH OUTLOOK DEPICTS LOW FORECAST COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME. IT IS EXPECTED WHEN THE OUTLOOK IS UPDATED AND RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 28,
2019, THERE WILL BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN OF ANOMALOUS
MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A FAVORED WET PATTERN
FOR THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH
AND SUPPORTED BY SUBSEASONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS AND ECMWF MODELING
SYSTEMS. THE MJO ALSO SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE MONTH.

DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ALASKA, BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMAIN THE FORECAST AT THE
CURRENT TIME IS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER ABOVE-, NEAR- OR
BELOW-NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION OR "EQUAL CHANCES" (EC). THIS IS DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY ACROSS THE VARIOUS TIME SCALES, CONFLICTING SIGNALS
FROM MODELING SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST TOOLS. DESPITE THE EC FORECAST IN
MANY OF THESE AREAS, THERE WAS SOME SUPPORT FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
A REGION FROM THE UPPER-MIDWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF THE MEAN
WEEKS 2-4 EAST-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
DESIGNATE A HIGHLIGHTED AREA. MOREOVER, EARLY IN THE MONTH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT SIMILARLY THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME DUE TO WEAK SIGNALS AND CONFLICTING FORECAST
TOOLS.

FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR MAR WILL BE ISSUED ON THU FEBRUARY 28 2019

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
$$

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