Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR 2026 
 
A major pattern shift occurred across the greater North America region just 
prior to the middle of February. High latitude blocking and penetrations of 
Arctic air in various regions of the mid-latitudes of the northern Hemisphere 
(i.e. strong -AO projection) dominated the second half of January and early 
February. The strong block impacting the far north Atlantic-Greenland region, 
etc. dissipated and allowed more progressive flow and an easing of the strong 
trough across eastern North America. In mid February, troughing replaced a 
persistent ridge near the West coast of North America and this has resulted in 
a much more stormy, active pattern across much of the CONUS. 
 
Extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance indicates the continuation of a 
progressive pattern entering early March with a northward shifted storm track 
across the CONUS to first order - consistent with a +AO and -PNA - quite 
opposite of what was observed in early-mid February. Positive 500-hPa height 
departures associated with northward shifted westerlies and more air of 
Pacific, maritime origin entering the CONUS supports primarily above-normal 
temperatures for much of the interior U.S. as forecast by ECMWF, GEFS and JMA 
subseasonal model guidance into mid-March. 
 
The forecast in the extended range and into early March is reasonably 
consistent with La Nina conditions - ridging/blocking in the north Pacific near 
the Date Line and troughing downstream along the coast of western North America 
- as anomalous enhanced convection remains observed near Indonesia. The MJO has 
not been all that coherent in recent weeks as other modes of coherent tropical 
subseasonal variability have focused the anomalous enhanced convection at the 
Maritime continent. Model RMM forecasts are mixed with any MJO strengthening 
and organized eastward propagation. The ECMWF forecast is for no clear 
organized signal, while the GEFS indicates some potential eastward propagation 
but with large forecast spread. The state of the MJO will be reviewed prior to 
the end of the month update. Other factors considered in preparation of the 
outlook are potential remaining snowpack in parts of the Northeast, extensive 
severe and extreme drought conditions for much of the Southeast U.S. and 
southern Great Plains and the snow drought along the northern tier of the U.S. 
from the northern and central Plains eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley 
and western Great Lakes. 
 
The above climate factors and extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance 
support favored above-normal temperatures for much of the CONUS for areas of 
the southern Far West, Southwest, most of the Rockies eastward to include the 
majority of the central CONUS and Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. The highest 
odds for above-normal temperatures are forecast for portions of the 
south-central Plains and Mississippi Valley where the majority of forecast 
guidance and tools are in best agreement. Odds for above-normal temperatures 
are less for parts of the western U.S. with a small area of slightly elevated 
odds for below-normal temperatures highlighted for parts of the Pacific 
Northwest. A sharp demarcation in the forecast anomalous height pattern in 
central North America may allow colder air intrusions into the northern U.S. 
and so a narrow region of slightly favored below-normal temperatures is 
highlighted for parts of the northern Plains at this time. Equal-Chances (EC) 
for above-, near-, and below-normal monthly mean temperatures is forecast for 
the Northeast where some troughing and snowpack increases uncertainty. 
 
Strong ridging forecast by model guidance west of Alaska supports an amplified 
trough over much of the state with strong anomalous northerly flow and so 
below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of Alaska. For northern and 
northwestern Alaska, trends  in below-normal sea ice coverage and above-normal 
near coast SSTs keep these areas EC for the mid-month outlook, although this 
forcing is considerably weaker this February than in previous years. 
 
For precipitation, a northward shifted storm track entering March as indicated 
by extended- and subseasonal-range model guidance favors below-normal 
precipitation from central California southward and eastward to the central and 
southern High Plains. Current above-normal precipitation across the west is 
forecast to shift north in the coming week and elevated probabilities for 
above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest eastward along 
and just south of the Canadian border. This area meets another region of 
favored above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
consistent with residual La Nina and potential MJO influenced precipitation, 
along with favored below-normal precipitation in the extreme Southeast CONUS. 
Anticipated anomalous northerly flow across Alaska favors a slight tilt toward 
below-normal precipitation for areas of central and southern Mainland Alaska. 
 
FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Mar will be issued on Sat February 28 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
$$