Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2020 
 
The temperature and precipitation outlooks for February largely reflect 
dynamical model guidance, statistical relationships with modes of variability 
in the tropics, and some consideration for local sea surface temperatures. The 
Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and likely to play a significant role in 
the upcoming month, which potentially means increased variability and a pattern 
flip in the middle of the month. The potential for escalated variability 
decreases the overall confidence in the outlooks. 
 
The temperature outlook for Alaska reflects model guidance in that above normal 
temperatures are favored for western Alaska in all but 2 of the NMME models, 
though the probabilities are just slightly higher than the NMME models. The 
slight increase in probabilities is supported by more recent runs of the CFS 
and lagged composites of a currently strong MJO event pointing toward a warming 
in the middle of the month. A cooler signal is evident for eastern Alaska, 
which contradicts some trends , so equal chances are specified there. A strong 
phase 5/6 of the MJO can also indicate a colder period for the eastern CONUS, 
approximately 15-30 days later. The colder period would not be expected to 
extend beyond about 15-20 days in length, as an active MJO would reverse the 
signal as it traversed the tropics. Given that potential MJO signal and 
consistent model support, below normal temperatures are favored from eastern 
Montana to the Northeast and southward to the Tennessee Valley. Probabilities 
are highest where statistical measures and model forecasts agree. Trends  are 
positive and signals  for below normal temperatures moderate for the Southeast, 
so equal chances are indicated, except over Florida, where above normal 
temperatures are favored. The area where above normal temperatures are favored 
extends westward from Florida across the immediate Gulf Coast, into Texas and 
the Central and Southern Rockies, terminating at the West Coast. Across the 
Great Basin, above normal temperatures are favored by trends  and some models, 
though signals  are weaker in the older model runs and much stronger in more 
recent runs. 
 
The MJO would support the development of a trough near Baja California, which 
could limit the southern extent of a broad dry area in many of the NMME models. 
The pattern that would support the cold air would also support multiple frontal 
passages over the eastern CONUS with northerly flow in the wake of each 
passage, resulting in overall dry conditions in the from the Midwest to the 
Central Plains and potentially leaving dissipating fronts across the Gulf 
Coast, enhancing odds for precipitation over the Southeast. The precipitation 
outlook for Alaska is highly uncertain, though predicted above normal 
sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska are likely associated with 
ridging there and a storm track pushed into mainland Alaska, so above normal 
precipitation is slightly favored for central Alaska. Storms that are pushed 
northward into Alaska, would have less of an impact on California and Oregon, 
so below normal precipitation probabilities are elevated for central 
California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon. That same storm track could 
support more activity for the Northern Rockies, and MJO composites indicate 
conditions supportive of more upslope potential, so above normal precipitation 
is indicated from eastern Montana to Northern Colorado. 
 
FORECASTER: Matthew Rosencrans 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1981 and 2010, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
An updated monthly outlook... for Feb will be issued on Fri January 31 2020 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period. 
$$