Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2022 
 
The updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for July 2022 reflect recent 
dynamical model guidance from the GEFS, ECMWF and CFSv2, as well as current WPC 
week 1 outlooks and the CPC week 2 and week 3-4 outlooks. Tropical convective 
activity in recent months has been related to a series of fast moving Kelvin 
waves. Current tropical circulation and convection project onto an active 
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent based on the 
Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index. The GEFS and ECMWF predict continued 
eastward propagation of the MJO into the Western Pacific, potentially impacting 
the climate over North America during July. La Niña conditions continue across 
the equatorial Pacific, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies 
over much of the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. However, sea surface 
temperatures have warmed across most of this region in recent weeks, and the 
Niño 3.4 SST anomaly has decreased in magnitude to -0.6 degrees C. Positive 
subsurface ocean temperature anomalies continue to expand eastward across most 
of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature 
anomalies persist near the surface over the central Pacific Ocean and at depth 
over the Eastern Pacific. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through 
July and may impact the climate of North America. An active MJO over the 
Maritime Continent could reinforce La Niña impacts. Land surface soil moisture 
conditions were also consulted for the updated July outlook. 
 
The temperature outlook for July indicates enhanced probabilities for above 
normal temperatures for southeastern Alaska including the northern Alaska 
Panhandle, consistent with the CPC temperatures outlooks for the 6-10 day, week 
2, and week 3-4 periods, as well as forecast guidance from the CFSv2 for July 
and the consolidation of GEFS and CFSv2 temperature forecasts for weeks 1 
through 4. Uncertainty has increased among the forecast tools for other areas 
of Alaska, such that equal chances of above, near and below normal temperatures 
are predicted for all other areas of the state. The temperature outlook for 
July indicates enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures for coastal 
areas of the Pacific Northwest, reflecting WPC temperature outlooks for the 
first week of the month, CPC temperature outlooks for the 6-10 day period from 
earlier in the week, as well as a consolidation of GEFS and CFSv2 temperature 
forecasts for weeks 1 through 4. Troughing and below normal temperatures over 
the west coast of the CONUS are consistent with La Niña impacts at this time of 
year. Above normal temperatures are favored for much of the central and eastern 
CONUS for July, excluding most of the Great Lakes region, under predicted 
positive 500-hPa height anomalies in dynamical model guidance and consistent 
with the CPC 6-10 day, week 2, and week 3-4 outlooks. Above normal temperatures 
are slightly favored for the Southwest Monsoon region, consistent with the week 
2 outlook, where enhanced monsoon precipitation may moderate temperatures. 
Significant heat and probabilities for above normal temperatures exceeding 60 
percent are forecast over the central CONUS, including parts of the Central and 
Southern Plains. 
 
The precipitation outlook for July indicates a slightly enhanced probability of 
above normal precipitation over western Mainland Alaska, east of a predicted 
trough during much of July, and consistent with CPC precipitation outlooks for 
the 6-10 day, week 2, and week 3-4 periods. Below normal precipitation is 
favored from the California Sierras across the Great Basin to the Rockies, 
consistent with the precipitation outlooks for the 6-10 day, week 2, and week 
3-4 periods and CFSv2 precipitation forecasts for July. An enhanced monsoon is 
predicted early in the month as well as in recent 6-10 day, week 2, and week 
3-4 outlooks, leading to predicted above normal precipitation across much of 
the region in the July outlook. Below normal precipitation continues to be 
favored for parts of the Central Plains, Southern Plains, and Central 
Mississippi Valley and has been extended southward into much of Texas in the 
updated July outlook, consistent with current model guidance, particularly for 
early in the month. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for much 
of the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to southern New England, including a 
greater area of the Florida Peninsula and Southeast, consistent with current 
dynamical model forecasts for July. 
 
------------------- Previous Mid-Month Discussion Follows ------------------- 
 
La Niña conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific, with negative sea 
surface temperature (SST) anomalies over much of the east-central and eastern 
Pacific Ocean. However, negative SST anomalies weakened in magnitude and are 
generally between -0.5 and -1.0 degrees C over most of the equatorial 
east-central Pacific in recent weeks. Convection continues to be suppressed 
near the Date Line and additionally over the western Pacific. Low-level 
easterly winds are enhanced over parts of the east-central equatorial Pacific 
Ocean, while upper-level westerly winds  are enhanced across most of the central 
and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies 
persist near the surface from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 
eastern Pacific Ocean, while positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist 
at depths of about 100 to 200 m across the western and central equatorial 
Pacific Ocean. 
 
Consolidated dynamical model forecasts from the North America Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME) predict an initial weakening in the magnitude of negative SST 
anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, bordering on ENSO-neutral conditions, 
slightly warmer than the -0.5 degree C threshold, with an increase in the 
magnitude of negative SST anomalies later in the boreal summer and into autumn. 
However, the CPC/IRI consensus ENSO outlook favors persistence of La Niña 
through summer with probabilities exceeding 50 percent, but indicates some 
uncertainty and the nearly as likely potential for ENSO-neutral conditions in 
the first seasonal lead, July-August-September (JAS). Although the impacts of a 
potentially ongoing La Niña influence the July temperature and precipitation 
outlooks for North America, the potential for ENSO-neutral conditions during 
the month of July limits the extent of use of ENSO-based forecast tools. 
 
The Real-time Multivariate Madden Julian Oscillation (RMM) index indicates 
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions have weakened. Forecasts of the MJO 
are highly uncertain at this time, and MJO does not play a role in the climate 
outlook for July. Dynamical model forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble 
forecast systems for the beginning of July predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa 
height anomalies over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), centered over the 
northwestern CONUS. Near-zero or negative mid-level height anomalies and a 
trough are predicted over the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific to the west of 
the CONUS. This predicted circulation pattern influences the temperature and 
precipitation forecasts for the beginning of July. The temperature and 
precipitation outlooks for July are based primarily on dynamical model 
forecasts from the NMME, the Copernicus International Multi-Model Ensemble 
(IMME or C3S), statistical tools, including the constructed analog of lagged 
temperature and precipitation based on current soil moisture conditions, and 
statistical forecasts of temperature and precipitation based on forecasts of 
the Niño 3.4 SST and on decadal trends . In addition, consolidations of 
statistical and dynamical tools for temperature and precipitation were 
consulted. 
 
The July temperature outlook slightly favors above normal temperatures across 
western Alaska, including Mainland Alaska and parts of the Aleutians, supported 
primarily by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. Below normal temperatures 
are more likely for the southern Alaska Panhandle and the Washington and Oregon 
coasts, supported by dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, as well as the 
GEFS temperature forecast for early July. Above normal temperatures are favored 
over a large area of the CONUS, consistent with NMME forecasts and the 
consolidation of statistical and dynamical forecast tools. Decadal trends  as 
well as dry soil moisture conditions increase the probabilities for above 
normal temperature over much of the West, centered around the Central High 
Plains, and for parts of the Northeast. Probabilities for above normal 
temperatures are moderated over parts of the Southwest Monsoon region due to 
enhanced monsoon precipitation. Weaker signals  and greater uncertainty among 
temperature tools lead to lower probabilities for above normal temperatures 
across the Central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. 
 
The July precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation across most of 
Alaska including the Alaska Panhandle, and excluding southwestern Mainland 
Alaska and the Aleutians, consistent with the NMME mean anomalies, as well as 
the impacts of La Niña and decadal trends . With the location of positive 
500-hPa height anomalies and a ridge predicted over the northwestern CONUS in 
the GEFS and ECMWF dynamical model forecasts for early July, as well as 
antecedent above normal temperatures and dry soil moisture conditions, an 
enhanced monsoon and above normal precipitation are favored for much of the 
Southwest, including most of Arizona, parts of southern Utah, and parts of 
western New Mexico. Below normal precipitation is favored in the July monthly 
outlook for a large area of the central CONUS to the east of the Rockies, from 
the central High Plains to the Central Mississippi Valley and western areas of 
the Ohio Valley, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the GEFS and 
ECMWF for the beginning of the month and the NMME and IMME forecasts for the 
full month. Dynamical model forecasts support slightly enhanced probabilities 
for above normal precipitation along the Atlantic Coast from northern Florida 
to southern New England, with greater probabilities due to decadal trends  over 
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. 
 
FORECASTER: Dan Collins 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Aug ... will be issued on Thu Jul 21 2022 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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