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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn OND 2022
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    0.5mn Oct 2022


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

La Niña conditions are present, as represented in current oceanic and
atmospheric observations. A continuation of La Niña is likely through the
Northern Hemisphere Winter 2022-23, with an 89 percent chance during
October-November-December (OND) decreasing to a 54 percent chance for
January-February-March (JFM). Conversely, the chances of El Niño are
exceedingly small, with probabilities less than 3 percent through the upcoming
winter.

The OND 2022 temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for the
southern two-thirds of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), the eastern third
of the CONUS, and northwestern Alaska. The largest probabilities (greater than
50 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast across the Four Corners
Region, much of the Southwest, the Rio Grande Valley, much of the Southern
Plains, the Florida Peninsula, and eastern New England. Conversely, a weak tilt
toward below normal temperatures is indicated for southeastern Alaska. The OND
2022 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of below normal
precipitation amounts across the Southern Tier of the CONUS extending northward
to include much of the Central Plains and Central Rockies. Above normal
precipitation is more likely for the northwestern CONUS and parts of
southwestern Mainland Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where
probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal
accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological
probabilities.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

The coupled oceanic and atmospheric observations reflect La Niña conditions.
During August 2022, La Niña continued with below average sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the central and east-central equatorial
Pacific Ocean. In the last week, all of the Niño index values ranged from
-1.1°C to -0.7°C. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from
180-100°W) were mostly unchanged during the month, reflecting the dominance of
below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly
wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across most of
the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the
western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia. Overall, the
coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The Real-time Multivariate Madden Julian Oscillation (RMM) index and
upper-level velocity potential anomaly analyses indicate a weakened and
incoherent Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the past week. Although weak,
continued eastward propagation of the intraseasonal signal is evident in both
the observation and forecast fields, where dynamical models depict a potential
strengthening of the MJO over the western Hemisphere, Africa and Indian Ocean.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

The most recent International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into
the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. There is an interesting split in the
dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La
Niña will persist longer, through JFM 2023. At this time, the forecaster
consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large
uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to
ENSO-neutral (56 percent chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during
February-April 2023). In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through
Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 89 percent chance in OND, decreasing
to a 54 percent chance in JFM 2023.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

Dynamical model forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME),
the Coupled Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2) , the Copernicus (C3S)
multi-model ensemble system were used extensively for the first six leads when
they are available, as was the objective, historical skill weighted
consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that
combines both dynamical and statistical forecast information.

Additionally, the official ENSO forecast depicts probabilities of La Niña that
are significantly higher than climatological probabilities through the upcoming
winter. This anticipated La Niña signal played a role in the construction of
these outlooks. At later leads, decadal trends in temperature and precipitation
were increasingly relied upon in creating the seasonal outlooks.


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - OND 2022 TO OND 2023

TEMPERATURE

Above normal temperatures are favored throughout a majority of the southern and
eastern CONUS and northwestern Alaska during OND. Conversely, below normal
temperatures are more likely for southeastern Alaska. EC of below, near, or
above normal temperatures are forecast for the northwestern and north-central
CONUS. This EC area is due to weak or conflicting signals among temperature
tools. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are reduced relative to last
month across the northern CONUS due to a trend toward a colder solution in the
temperature consolidation coupled with a cold La Niña signal across parts of
the Northern Plains and Northwest. Above normal temperatures remain likely
(greater than 50 percent) from the Four Corners Region to the Southern Plains
as well as for the Florida Peninsula and eastern New England, due to good
agreement among both dynamical and statistical guidance. Guidance has trended
colder across much of Alaska relative to last month. Thus, increased
probabilities of below normal temperatures were introduced to southeastern
parts of the state, which is also consistent with natural analogs from the
current ENSO state.

From November-December-January (NDJ) through March-April-May (MAM), impacts
from the ongoing La Niña continue as above normal temperatures are favored
across the Southern CONUS and the Eastern Seaboard while enhanced below normal
temperature probabilities persist across southeastern Alaska and expand
southward to the northwestern and north-central CONUS by
December-January-February (DJF). After MAM, the forecast pattern increasingly
begins to reflect trends with above normal temperatures generally favored
across most of the southern, western, and eastern CONUS next spring and
expanding to most of the remainder of the CONUS next summer and into the fall.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures peak across the interior Northwest
next summer and across the Northeast next summer into early fall consistent
with trends . Across Alaska, above normal temperatures are most likely for
western parts of the state during the Spring, shifting to the South Coast
during the summer months, and eventually expanding northward to northern parts
of the state by next fall.

PRECIPITATION

Model guidance remains consistent from previous months depicting elevated
probabilities of below normal precipitation for much of the southern CONUS, and
increased chances of above normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest
during OND. Models have trended toward an expansion of the dry signal eastward
across the Southeast relative to last month, with influences from potential
tropical disturbances decreasing and La Niña influences increasing as we
progress deeper into the fall and early winter. Conversely, precipitation
guidance has trended wetter across the northwestern CONUS, resulting in an
increase in above normal precipitation probabilities relative to last month. A
slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for parts of
southwestern Alaska, based primarily on dynamical model guidance from the CFSv2
and a wet signal derived from natural analogs to the current ENSO state. EC is
indicated for most of the rest of the forecast domain as signals for the
various dynamical and statistical tools are too weak or conflicting to issue a
forecast with a sufficient degree of confidence.

As we progress further into late fall and through the winter, dynamical and
statistical guidance persist with a dry signal across the southern CONUS,
consistent with a La Niña signature. An eastward progression of enhanced above
normal precipitation probabilities is noted across the northwestern CONUS,
peaking in coverage during the late fall and through the winter months. A wet
signal is also favored to expand southward from the Great Lakes across much of
the east-central CONUS during the winter and early spring, consistent with La
Niña composites. During next spring through next fall, trends become the
dominant factor with increased chances of above normal precipitation generally
indicated across parts of the east-central CONUS and Gulf Coast Region for much
of the period. Conversely, trends favor a dry pattern for much of the Southwest
during early spring shifting northward to the Northern Rockies by late Spring,
with increased chances of dryness for parts of the Northern Plains next summer
as well. As dryness potentially expands into the northern Plains next summer, a
corresponding weak tilt toward above normal precipitation makes a brief
appearance for parts of the Southwest Monsoon Region during May-June-July (MJJ)
and June-July-August (JJA), consistent with recent trends . Thereafter, an area
of slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation is indicated
across the Pacific Northwest in August-September-October (ASO) and
September-October-November (SON), based primarily on statistical guidance from
trends and ENSO. There exists high uncertainty across much of Alaska with large
areas of EC indicated. However, dynamical guidance supports increased odds of
above normal precipitation across parts of the western Mainland through the
February-March-April (FMA) season. Conversely, statistical guidance from trends
and ENSO support a slight tilt toward below normal precipitation for parts of
the southwestern and central Mainland Alaska late in the spring into the early
summer. Thereafter, trends support slightly increased chances for above normal
precipitation for parts of the northwestern Mainland next summer and slightly
increased chances of below normal precipitation for parts of the Panhandle next
fall.

FORECASTER: Scott Handel

The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the
forecast format please see our web page at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html
(Use Lower Cas e Letters)
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm
l
(use lowercase letters)
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium
range forecasts should be consulted.

This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next
month on Oct 20 2022


1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021
forecast release.
$$

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Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
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