Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn FMA 2023
    1.5mn MAM 2023
    2.5mn AMJ 2023
    3.5mn MJJ 2023
    4.5mn JJA 2023
    5.5mn JAS 2023
    6.5mn ASO 2023
    7.5mn SON 2023
    8.5mn OND 2023
    9.5mn NDJ 2023
   10.5mn DJF 2023
   11.5mn JFM 2024
   12.5mn FMA 2024
    0.5mn Feb 2023


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2023

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

The February-March-April (FMA) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal
temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, northern California, portions of the
Great Basin, the northern Rockies, and the northern Great Plains. Below-normal
temperatures are also favored for southeastern Alaska. Above-normal
temperatures are more likely for the southern and eastern contiguous United
States (CONUS) along with parts of northwestern Alaska, southwest mainland
Alaska, and the Aleutians.

The FMA 2023 precipitation outlook depicts elevated probabilities for
above-normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, parts
of the northern Great Plains, and from the Great Lakes southward to the
Tennessee Valley. Below-normal precipitation is favored for southern
California, the Southwest, the central to southern Great Plains, the Gulf
Coast, and parts of the Southeast.

Areas depicted in white and labeled “Equal-Chances” or “EC” are regions where
climate signals are weak and so there are equal chances for either above-,
near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures and total precipitation
amounts.


BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

Below-average SSTs persisted across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
Recent observed SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are at -0.7 degrees
Celsius (up from -1.0 degrees Celsius one month ago). Subsurface temperature
anomalies (averaged from 180-100W and 0-300 meters) remained at near -0.2
degrees Celsius during the last month, continuing to reflect warmer subsurface
temperatures than those observed in August to October of 2022. During the last
two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened, but weak
anomalies continue to reside near the surface of the central and east-central
Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies mostly remain at depth
in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Some positive anomalies are evident
near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) continue over
the equatorial west-central Pacific with weak negative OLR anomalies (enhanced
convection and precipitation) throughout Indonesia and Southeast Asia. The
tradewinds have weakened across the central Pacific, with sustained westerly
anomalies as far east as 160E during January. Intraseasonal variability may
cause a westward shift in the dividing line between westerly and easterly
anomalies, but the weakening of La Nina should be accompanied by a slow
eastward drift during the outlook period.

SST anomalies are positive over the North Pacific and near the Aleutians.
Positive SST anomalies, present earlier in the fall along the West Coast, have
moderated to near average. Positive SST anomalies persist over the Gulf of
Mexico and along the East Coast with the largest anomalies offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic and New England.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

The CPC SST consolidation forecast for Niño 3.4 depicts decreasing negative
anomalies through the spring 2023 as a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is
predicted to occur. The inputs by the consolidation are tightly clustered
through AMJ, after which some inputs suggest El Nino conditions and others
remain in the ENSO-neutral phase, though on the positive side.  The North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) ensemble mean forecast is similar to the
CPC consolidation. Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, the
CPC official ENSO outlook indicates a 73 percent chance for ENSO-neutral during
FMA and a 82 percent chance during MAM. ENSO-neutral conditions are the most
likely outcome through JJA, after which El Niño becomes the most likely
category.


PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

The temperature and precipitation outlooks for FMA 2023 were based on dynamical
model guidance such as the NMME and statistical tools, including the global SST
based Constructed Analog (CA), Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA),
experimental Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM), relationships to ENSO,
and trends . The objective, historical skill weighted consolidation was a major
tool used in the outlooks, and that includes the ENSO/OCN tool and a complete
suite of statistical and dynamical tool combinations. Although a transition to
ENSO-neutral is favored during the early forecast lead times, La Niña
composites were used during FMA as the atmospheric response to La Niña is
expected to linger through the late winter or early spring. Land surface
conditions, including an expectation of dry soil moisture heading into the
spring for the central to southern Great Plains and anomalous snowpack across
the western CONUS and northern Plains, played a role in the temperature
outlooks during the 2023 spring and summer seasons. Long-term climate trends
were considered for all leads, but were relied upon more heavily from the
summer 2023 through FMA 2024.


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2023 TO FMA 2024

TEMPERATURE

Elevated probabilities of above-normal temperatures during FMA 2023 are
forecast across the southern and eastern CONUS. This favored area of
above-normal temperatures is supported by the calibrated NMME, CBaM, and
consolidation tool. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures exceed 50
percent across the Southeast and Rio Grande where the consolidation has the
strongest warm signal and ENSO correlations are relatively high. Coverage and
probabilities for above-normal temperatures across the southern Great Plains
are tempered by concerns of Arctic air outbreaks through February and March.
Elevated odds for below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to
Northern Great Plains are based on model output, relationships with Nino3.4,
and trends . Trends would favor below-normal temperatures across the Central
Plains, but low soil-moisture and model forecasts for above normal temperatures
increase uncertainty. Snow depths ranging from 100-228 percent of normal
slightly favor a colder start to the FMA period across California and parts of
the Great Basin. Dynamical and statistical tools support increased
probabilities of below-normal temperatures for southeastern Alaska with
above-normal temperatures favored for the Aleutians, southwest mainland Alaska,
and parts of northern Mainland Alaska. Coastal areas of Alaska, where SSTs are
above normal are most likely to experience above-normal temperatures.

The temperature outlook for FMA 2023 (compared to the previous month release)
contains a slight increase in the odds for below-normal temperatures across the
northern Great Plains, Northern California, and parts of the Great Basin.
Corresponding to the increased odds for below-normal temperatures across the
northern Great Plains, odds for above-normal temperatures are slightly reduced
across the central and southern Great Plains. That slight shift toward a colder
outlook is carried through MJJ.  From MJJ to JAS, odds for above-normal
temperatures across the central Rockies, Great Basin, and portions of the
Pacific Northwest are increased relative to the prior set of outlooks. From SON
onward, the outlooks reflect the statistical consolidation that includes
trends, SST-CA, and the anticipated impact of the predicted state of ENSO.

EC is forecast for areas of the CONUS where temperatures are expected to be
most variable during this three-month period. It should be noted that
subseasonal variability related to the MJO and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are
expected to influence the circulation pattern and temperatures this winter.

PRECIPITATION

Dynamical model guidance and statistical tools continue to depict a La Niña
related precipitation pattern through FMA 2023. Impacts on the primary storm
track and precipitation due to La Niña are forecast to linger even if negative
SST anomalies across the equatorial central Pacific begin to weaken. Updated
outputs from the guidance listed above resulted in decreased odds for
below-normal precipitation across eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast, with
increased odds for above-normal precipitation across the Tennessee Valley.
Calibrated model guidance also increased uncertainty across portions of central
California, so some of that area was changed to EC during FMA. The outlook for
Alaska during FMA has not changed.

The outlook for MAM was updated to remove the area of enhanced odds for
above-normal precipitation across the Northern Rockies as trends and
relationships with SSTs no longer favor above-normal precipitation. During AMJ,
odds for below-normal precipitation were increased across the Great Basin and
the Alaska Panhandle, reflecting the 4 statistical tools and dynamical model
guidance (NMME, CBaM). Enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation was also
removed from the Southwest during MJJ and JJA, as a shift to El Nino can
inhibit the monsoon.  From SON 2023 to FMA 2024, the outlooks were adjusted to
reflect the latest output of the skill based consolidation, which includes the
predicted state of ENSO according to the SST consolidation, trends , CCA, and
SST-CA.



FORECASTER: Matthew Rosencrans

The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the
forecast format please see our web page at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html
(Use Lower Cas e Letters)
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm
l
(use lowercase letters)
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium
range forecasts should be consulted.

This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next
month on Feb 16 2023


1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021
forecast release.
$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities