Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The January-February-March (JFM) 2022 temperature outlook favors above-normal 
seasonal mean temperatures for the south-central and eastern U.S. The largest 
probabilities (above 50 percent) for above-normal temperatures are forecast 
across much of the Gulf Coast States and parts of New England. Probabilities of 
below-normal temperatures are elevated for parts of the northern High Plains, 
northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, northern California, and most of Alaska. 
The JFM 2022 precipitation outlook favors below-normal seasonal precipitation 
amounts from southern California and the Southwest east to the southern Great 
Plains along with parts of the Southeast. Below-normal precipitation is 
slightly favored for coastal southern Alaska. Above-normal seasonal 
precipitation amounts are most likely across the Great Lakes, Ohio and 
Tennessee Valleys, northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and western Mainland 
Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast among areas where seasonal mean 
temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be 
similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as 
represented in current oceanic and atmospheric observations. The official CPC 
ENSO forecast indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to persist through 
the winter and early spring. The influence of La Niña continued to play a major 
role in the temperature and precipitation outlooks during 
January-February-March and February-March-April 2022. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
Oceanic and atmospheric observations reflect La Niña conditions During the 
past four weeks (Nov 14 – Dec 11), sea surface temperatures were below (above)- 
average across the equatorial eastern and central (western) Pacific. The latest 
Nino-3.4 index is -1.1 degrees C. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies 
continue to persist at a depth of 150 meters near and to the east of the Date 
Line. Integrated upper-ocean heat anomalies from 180 to 100W declined rapidly 
during September and early October and then weakened in magnitude from late 
October to early November. Suppressed convection remains anchored across the 
central equatorial Pacific where enhanced trade winds continue along with 
anomalous upper-level westerlies. The coupled ocean-atmospheric system is 
consistent with La Nina conditions. 
 
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strengthened during late November and its 
enhanced phase propagated eastward to the West Pacific by early December. As 
the MJO destructively interfered with the ongoing La Niña, the MJO became less 
coherent during mid-December. Although the MJO could influence the mid-latitude 
circulation pattern over North America heading into January, large uncertainty 
exists as the well-established La Niña may disrupt the typical forcing 
associated with an eastward propagating MJO over the Pacific. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The CPC SST consolidation for the Niño-3.4 region depicts negative SST 
anomalies remaining at or below -0.5 degrees C through FMA and then near 
average from the late spring through the summer. The North American Multi Model 
Ensemble (NMME) ensemble mean forecast for the Niño-3.4 SST anomaly depicts a 
slightly slower transition to near average during the next six months. Based on 
the observational and model forecast indicators as of early December 2021, the 
official CPC/IRI ENSO outlook favors La Niña conditions persisting through FMA 
2022 with a transition to ENSO-neutral becoming more likely by AMJ 2022. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
La Niña temperature and precipitation composites were a major tool relied upon 
through FMA 2022. Dynamical model guidance such as the North American 
Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) 
version of the NMME were used. The consolidation tool, which includes NMME 
input and various statistical tools, was also used especially after the 
predicted transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by late spring. Given the 
expectation of drought across the southern Great Plains heading into the 
spring, low soil moisture conditions were considered for this region, beginning 
in MAM when lower soil moisture can have a warming influence on surface 
temperatures. At later leads, decadal trends  in temperature and precipitation 
were the primary tool used in creating the seasonal outlooks. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JFM 2022 TO JFM 2023 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
Only minor adjustments were made to the previous temperature outlooks, released 
on November 18, as La Niña continues to be the major contributor to the 
predicted climate state during JFM and FMA 2022. Given the ongoing MJO and its 
potential influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern over North America 
not only heading into January but also continuing through March, probabilities 
are tempered. Decadal trends , nearby positive SST anomalies, and an expected 
mean seasonal storm track to the west enhance probabilities for above-normal 
temperatures across parts of New England. Probabilities, exceeding 50 percent, 
for above-normal temperatures are also forecast across much of the Gulf Coast 
States and parts of the Southeast, based on La Niña composites along with good 
model agreement and continuity. Compared to last month, the coverage of EC was 
expanded over the north-central CONUS during JFM and FMA due to the likelihood 
of a highly variable temperature pattern through the early spring. Also, 
decadal trends  are neutral or lean slightly cold for this region during these 
three-month periods. Below-normal temperatures are most likely across the 
northern High Plains, northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and much of Alaska 
through FMA due to good agreement among dynamical and statistical tools. Since 
La Niña may continue to favor below-normal temperatures through at least the 
early spring, probabilities of below-normal temperatures are slightly elevated 
for the Pacific Northwest along with southern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska 
Panhandle during MAM. Compared to the previous release on Nov 18, probabilities 
for above-normal temperatures were slightly increased across the southern Great 
Plains during the spring and early summer, based on increasing forecast 
confidence for drought and low soil moisture conditions. The temperature 
outlooks from JJA 2022 through JFM 2023 were based on decadal trends  and the 
CPC consolidation tool. 
 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
The precipitation outlooks for JFM and FMA 2022 are consistent with La Niña 
composites which favor below-normal precipitation across the southern tier of 
the CONUS with above-normal precipitation more likely from the Great Lakes 
south to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys along with the Pacific Northwest and 
northern Rockies. The wet signal across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, related 
to La Niña, becomes strongest during the late winter and early spring. During 
JFM and FMA, the latest dynamical model guidance backed off on favored dryness 
across much of California. The more recent model output and consideration of 
the likely wet pattern during mid to late December prompted a decrease in 
coverage and probabilities of below normal precipitation for California from 
JFM to FMA. These three month time periods are one of the wettest in the 
seasonal precipitation cycle. Another modification from the previous outlook on 
Nov 18 was a slight increase of probabilities for below normal precipitation 
across the Florida Peninsula during JFM and FMA, based on good model agreement 
along with a strong dry signal in La Niña composites. Dynamical models  are in 
good agreement for elevated probabilities of below (above)-normal precipitation 
across parts of southern coastal Alaska (western and northern Mainland Alaska) 
during JFM, FMA, and MAM. The NMME and the CPC consolidation tool were 
primarily used for the precipitation outlooks during AMJ and MJJ. Beyond this 
time period, decadal trends  in precipitation became the primary tool. 
 
FORECASTER: Brad Pugh 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Jan 20 2022 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$