Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2022 
 
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to negative one half degree Celsius were observed over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu), while zero to positive one half degree Celsius SST anomalies were evident over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January through June 2022, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
- Lihue Airport 14.84 inches (82 percent of normal) 
- Honolulu Airport 8.23 inches (100 percent of normal) 
- Kahului Airport 0.66 inches (7 percent of normal) 
- Hilo Airport 47.88 inches (88 percent of normal) 
 
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict near average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through August 2022. This supports Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures over the Hawaiian Islands in August 2022. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in August 2022, supported by most dynamical and statistical models. 
 
 
 





 
TEMPERATURE
 
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
Hilo 
 
 EC
 
76.6
 
0.4
 
B50
 
7.6
 
8.4
 
10.3
 
Kahului 
 
 EC
 
79.8
 
0.4
 
B50
 
0.3
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
Honolulu
 
 EC
 
82.1
 
0.4
 
B50
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
0.4
 
Lihue 
 
 EC
 
79.7
 
0.4
 
B50
 
1.4
 
1.8
 
2.5
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2022 - ASO 2023 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are continuing across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies expanded eastward before weakening and becoming negative in the central Pacific at depth. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central and east-central tropical Pacific. The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are consistent with La Niña conditions. La Niña is favored to continue through 2022, with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance). 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for Hilo, Kahului and Honolulu from OND 2022 through DJF 2022-23, and for Lihue from SON 2022 through DJF 2022-23, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JFM 2023. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from ASO 2022 to autumn (SON) 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Most tools favor increased chances of below normal precipitation over Hawaii from NDJ 2022-23 to JFM 2023. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in OND 2022-23, FMA 2023 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.
 
 
















 
Hilo
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
ASO 2022
 
 EC
 
76.4
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
26.1
 
28.8
 
33.3
 
SON 2022
 
 EC
 
76.2
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
24.3
 
30.2
 
40.8
 
OND 2022
 
A40
 
75.5
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
28.3
 
34.5
 
42.0
 
NDJ 2022
 
A40
 
74.2
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
26.4
 
36.6
 
43.0
 
DJF 2023
 
A40
 
72.8
 
0.4 
 
A50
 
19.6
 
30.2
 
33.3
 
JFM 2023
 
 EC
 
71.8
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
22.0
 
32.0
 
44.5
 
FMA 2023
 
 EC
 
71.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
24.6
 
34.1
 
45.5
 
MAM 2023
 
 EC
 
72.0
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
22.5
 
28.4
 
34.0
 
AMJ 2023
 
 EC
 
72.9
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
21.4
 
23.7
 
29.0
 
MJJ 2023
 
 EC
 
74.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
20.2
 
27.5
 
29.1
 
JJA 2023
 
 EC
 
75.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
19.4
 
27.2
 
31.4
 
JAS 2023
 
 EC
 
76.1
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
25.2
 
28.6
 
33.4
 
ASO 2023
 
 EC
 
76.4
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
26.1
 
28.8
 
33.3
 

















 
Kahului
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
ASO 2022
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
0.8 
 
1.6 
 
2.5 
 
SON 2022
 
 EC
 
79.1
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
2.1 
 
3.3 
 
4.8 
 
OND 2022
 
A40
 
77.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.2 
 
5.3 
 
8.1 
 
NDJ 2022
 
A40
 
75.9
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
5.2 
 
7.6 
 
9.5 
 
DJF 2023
 
A40
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
A50
 
4.6 
 
6.9 
 
8.7 
 
JFM 2023
 
 EC
 
72.5
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
4.2 
 
6.2 
 
8.2 
 
FMA 2023
 
 EC
 
72.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
3.2 
 
4.1 
 
6.4 
 
MAM 2023
 
 EC
 
73.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.5 
 
3.5 
 
4.6 
 
AMJ 2023
 
 EC
 
74.3
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
2.2 
 
MJJ 2023
 
 EC
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.8 
 
JJA 2023
 
 EC
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.5 
 
JAS 2023
 
 EC
 
79.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.8 
 
1.1 
 
1.6 
 
ASO 2023
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.8 
 
1.6 
 
2.5 
 

















 
Honolulu
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
ASO 2022
 
 EC
 
81.7
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
1.6 
 
2.4 
 
3.1 
 
SON 2022
 
 EC
 
81.4
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
2.5 
 
4.0 
 
5.6 
 
OND 2022
 
A40
 
80.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.4 
 
6.4 
 
8.5 
 
NDJ 2022
 
A40
 
77.7
 
0.5 
 
A40
 
3.9 
 
5.6 
 
8.8 
 
DJF 2023
 
A40
 
75.3
 
0.5 
 
A50
 
3.7 
 
5.6 
 
8.6 
 
JFM 2023
 
 EC
 
73.9
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
2.1 
 
4.6 
 
7.8 
 
FMA 2023
 
 EC
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.9 
 
3.2 
 
4.7 
 
MAM 2023
 
 EC
 
74.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.8 
 
2.6 
 
3.0 
 
AMJ 2023
 
 EC
 
76.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
1.8 
 
MJJ 2023
 
 EC
 
78.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.8 
 
1.4 
 
1.6 
 
JJA 2023
 
 EC
 
79.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
0.7 
 
0.8 
 
1.3 
 
JAS 2023
 
 EC
 
81.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.0 
 
1.4 
 
1.7 
 
ASO 2023
 
 EC
 
81.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.6 
 
2.4 
 
3.1 
 

















 
Lihue
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
ASO 2022
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.3 
 
B50
 
6.2 
 
7.9 
 
8.4 
 
SON 2022
 
A40
 
79.1
 
0.3 
 
B40
 
9.2 
 
10.0
 
11.2
 
OND 2022
 
A45
 
77.8
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
9.2 
 
11.7
 
15.6
 
NDJ 2022
 
A40
 
75.7
 
0.3 
 
A40
 
8.6 
 
12.1
 
16.9
 
DJF 2023
 
A40
 
73.6
 
0.4 
 
A50
 
7.5 
 
8.4 
 
14.0
 
JFM 2023
 
 EC
 
72.2
 
0.4 
 
A40
 
6.5 
 
8.8 
 
13.8
 
FMA 2023
 
 EC
 
72.1
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.8 
 
8.4 
 
9.9 
 
MAM 2023
 
 EC
 
72.8
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.3 
 
6.6 
 
8.0 
 
AMJ 2023
 
 EC
 
74.2
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
4.7 
 
5.5 
 
6.0 
 
MJJ 2023
 
 EC
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
4.9 
 
5.4 
 
5.9 
 
JJA 2023
 
 EC
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.4 
 
5.3 
 
6.9 
 
JAS 2023
 
 EC
 
79.0
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
5.3 
 
6.1 
 
7.8 
 
ASO 2023
 
 EC
 
79.4
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
6.2 
 
7.9 
 
8.4 
 

FORECASTER: Luke He 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 18, 2022.
 
 
$$