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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2024
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies near zero degrees Celsius were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. From January through June 2024, rainfall total accumulations were: Lihue Airport 21.91 inches (122 percent of average) Honolulu Airport 9.54 inches (116 percent of average) Kahului Airport 8.92 inches (96 percent of average) Hilo Airport 51.82 inches (95 percent of average) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) generally predict near-average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through August 2024. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are indicated to be Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal for all the islands through August. For the August 2024 precipitation outlook, below normal precipitation probabilities are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific in the near future. | | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
Hilo | EC | 76.6 | 0.4 | | B45 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 10.3 |
Kahului | EC | 79.8 | 0.4 | | B45 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Honolulu | EC | 82.1 | 0.4 | | B50 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Lihue | EC | 79.7 | 0.4 | | B50 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2024 - ASO 2025 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs are above average in the west-central Pacific Ocean, and near to below average in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies remain in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but have weakened in the last month. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were easterly across the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection and precipitation was observed recently over parts of the Maritime Continent. Most recent dynamical and statistical models have delayed the development of La Niña relative to last month’s forecasts. However La Niña is favored to develop with a 70% probability during August-September-October and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 with near 80% probability. Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and the Big Island from ASO (August-September-October) to OND (October-November-December) 2024, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are favored over the Hawaiian Islands including Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului, and the Big Island from NDJ (November-December-January) 2024-25 through JFM (January-February-March) 2025, supported by most of the dynamical model and statistical model temperature forecast tools. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore EC is indicated for Hawaii beginning in FMA (February-March-April) 2025 and extending through longer leads. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from ASO to SON 2024, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are predicted from NDJ 2024 to JFM 2025, consistent with impacts of a developing La Niña and dynamical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands in OND 2024 and beginning FMA 2025 and continuing through longer leads. | Hilo |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
ASO 2024 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
SON 2024 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | B45 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
OND 2024 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
NDJ 2024 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | A40 | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
DJF 2025 | A45 | 72.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
JFM 2025 | A45 | 71.8 | 0.4 | A45 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
MJJ 2025 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
JJA 2025 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
JAS 2025 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
ASO 2025 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
Kahului |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | B45 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
NDJ 2024 | A40 | 75.9 | 0.4 | A40 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
DJF 2025 | A45 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
JFM 2025 | A45 | 72.5 | 0.4 | A45 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
Honolulu |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
ASO 2024 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | B50 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
SON 2024 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | B45 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
OND 2024 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
NDJ 2024 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.5 | A40 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
DJF 2025 | A45 | 75.3 | 0.5 | A50 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
JFM 2025 | A45 | 73.9 | 0.4 | A45 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
MJJ 2025 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
JJA 2025 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
JAS 2025 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
ASO 2025 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
Lihue |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | B50 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | B45 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
NDJ 2024 | A40 | 75.7 | 0.3 | A40 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
DJF 2025 | A45 | 73.6 | 0.4 | A50 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
JFM 2025 | A45 | 72.2 | 0.4 | A45 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
MJJ 2025 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
JJA 2025 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
JAS 2025 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
ASO 2025 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
FORECASTER: Dan Collins Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 15, 2024. | $$
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