Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EST Thu Mar 16 2023 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2023 
 
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January through February 2023, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
- Lihue Airport 13.72 inches (214 percent of normal) 
- Honolulu Airport 3.59 inches (95 percent of normal) 
- Kahului Airport 5.82 inches (132 percent of normal) 
- Hilo Airport 40.01 inches (221 percent of normal) 
 
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through April 2023. This supports likely above normal 
temperatures over the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation are also favored for the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023, supported by most dynamical and statistical models.
 
 
 





 
TEMPERATURE
 
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
Hilo 
 
A50
 
72.6
 
0.7
 
A50
 
7.4
 
8.9
 
11.2
 
Kahului 
 
A60
 
74.1
 
0.6
 
A50
 
0.5
 
0.9
 
1.3
 
Honolulu
 
A70
 
76.3
 
0.5
 
A50
 
0.3
 
0.5
 
0.7
 
Lihue 
 
A70
 
74.0
 
0.6
 
A50
 
1.6
 
1.9
 
2.8
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2023 - AMJ 2024 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are observed across the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the central Pacific Ocean and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the last four weeks. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward, remaining mostly at depth, except near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but weak anomalies continue to reside near the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident in a small area over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023 following dynamical and statistical model forecasts and the official ENSO outlook. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from April-May-June 2023 through Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and statistical forecasts. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures is indicated for Hawaii beginning in October-November-December 2023 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from May-June-July to Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in October-November-December through longer leads.
 
 
















 
Hilo
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
AMJ 2023
 
A40
 
72.9
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
21.4
 
23.7
 
29.0
 
MJJ 2023
 
A40
 
74.0
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
20.2
 
27.5
 
29.1
 
JJA 2023
 
A40
 
75.2
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
19.4
 
27.2
 
31.4
 
JAS 2023
 
A40
 
76.1
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
25.2
 
28.6
 
33.4
 
ASO 2023
 
A40
 
76.4
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
26.1
 
28.8
 
33.3
 
SON 2023
 
A40
 
76.2
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
24.3
 
30.2
 
40.8
 
OND 2023
 
 EC
 
75.5
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
28.3
 
34.5
 
42.0
 
NDJ 2023
 
 EC
 
74.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
26.4
 
36.6
 
43.0
 
DJF 2024
 
 EC
 
72.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
19.6
 
30.2
 
33.3
 
JFM 2024
 
 EC
 
71.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
22.0
 
32.0
 
44.5
 
FMA 2024
 
 EC
 
71.7
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
24.6
 
34.1
 
45.5
 
MAM 2024
 
 EC
 
72.0
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
22.5
 
28.4
 
34.0
 
AMJ 2024
 
 EC
 
72.9
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
21.4
 
23.7
 
29.0
 

















 
Kahului
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
AMJ 2023
 
A40
 
74.3
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
2.2 
 
MJJ 2023
 
A40
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
B40
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.8 
 
JJA 2023
 
A40
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
0.7 
 
1.1 
 
1.5 
 
JAS 2023
 
A40
 
79.0
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
0.8 
 
1.1 
 
1.6 
 
ASO 2023
 
A40
 
79.4
 
0.4 
 
B50
 
0.8 
 
1.6 
 
2.5 
 
SON 2023
 
A40
 
79.1
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
2.1 
 
3.3 
 
4.8 
 
OND 2023
 
 EC
 
77.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.2 
 
5.3 
 
8.1 
 
NDJ 2023
 
 EC
 
75.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
5.2 
 
7.6 
 
9.5 
 
DJF 2024
 
 EC
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.6 
 
6.9 
 
8.7 
 
JFM 2024
 
 EC
 
72.5
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.2 
 
6.2 
 
8.2 
 
FMA 2024
 
 EC
 
72.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
3.2 
 
4.1 
 
6.4 
 
MAM 2024
 
 EC
 
73.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.5 
 
3.5 
 
4.6 
 
AMJ 2024
 
 EC
 
74.3
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
2.2 
 

















 
Honolulu
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
AMJ 2023
 
A50
 
76.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
1.8 
 
MJJ 2023
 
A40
 
78.2
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
0.8 
 
1.4 
 
1.6 
 
JJA 2023
 
A40
 
79.9
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
0.7 
 
0.8 
 
1.3 
 
JAS 2023
 
A40
 
81.3
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
1.0 
 
1.4 
 
1.7 
 
ASO 2023
 
A40
 
81.7
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
1.6 
 
2.4 
 
3.1 
 
SON 2023
 
A40
 
81.4
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
2.5 
 
4.0 
 
5.6 
 
OND 2023
 
 EC
 
80.0
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
4.4 
 
6.4 
 
8.5 
 
NDJ 2023
 
 EC
 
77.7
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
3.9 
 
5.6 
 
8.8 
 
DJF 2024
 
 EC
 
75.3
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
3.7 
 
5.6 
 
8.6 
 
JFM 2024
 
 EC
 
73.9
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
2.1 
 
4.6 
 
7.8 
 
FMA 2024
 
 EC
 
73.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.9 
 
3.2 
 
4.7 
 
MAM 2024
 
 EC
 
74.8
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.8 
 
2.6 
 
3.0 
 
AMJ 2024
 
 EC
 
76.3
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
1.2 
 
1.6 
 
1.8 
 

















 
Lihue
 
 
TEMPERATURE
 
PRECIPITATION
 
 
 
FCST
 
AVE
 
LIM
 
FCST
 
BLW
 
MEDIAN
 
ABV
 
AMJ 2023
 
A50
 
74.2
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
4.7 
 
5.5 
 
6.0 
 
MJJ 2023
 
A40
 
76.0
 
0.5 
 
B40
 
4.9 
 
5.4 
 
5.9 
 
JJA 2023
 
A40
 
77.7
 
0.4 
 
B40
 
4.4 
 
5.3 
 
6.9 
 
JAS 2023
 
A40
 
79.0
 
0.3 
 
B40
 
5.3 
 
6.1 
 
7.8 
 
ASO 2023
 
A40
 
79.4
 
0.3 
 
B40
 
6.2 
 
7.9 
 
8.4 
 
SON 2023
 
A40
 
79.1
 
0.3 
 
B40
 
9.2 
 
10.0
 
11.2
 
OND 2023
 
 EC
 
77.8
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
9.2 
 
11.7
 
15.6
 
NDJ 2023
 
 EC
 
75.7
 
0.3 
 
 EC
 
8.6 
 
12.1
 
16.9
 
DJF 2024
 
 EC
 
73.6
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
7.5 
 
8.4 
 
14.0
 
JFM 2024
 
 EC
 
72.2
 
0.4 
 
 EC
 
6.5 
 
8.8 
 
13.8
 
FMA 2024
 
 EC
 
72.1
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.8 
 
8.4 
 
9.9 
 
MAM 2024
 
 EC
 
72.8
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
5.3 
 
6.6 
 
8.0 
 
AMJ 2024
 
 EC
 
74.2
 
0.5 
 
 EC
 
4.7 
 
5.5 
 
6.0 
 

FORECASTER: Luke He 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Apr 20, 2023.
 
 
$$