Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn AMJ 2023
    1.5mn MJJ 2023
    2.5mn JJA 2023
    3.5mn JAS 2023
    4.5mn ASO 2023
    5.5mn SON 2023
    6.5mn OND 2023
    7.5mn NDJ 2023
    8.5mn DJF 2023
    9.5mn JFM 2024
   10.5mn FMA 2024
   11.5mn MAM 2024
   12.5mn AMJ 2024
    0.5mn Apr 2023


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Mar 16 2023

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2023

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week.

For January through February 2023, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 13.72 inches (214 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 3.59 inches (95 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 5.82 inches (132 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 40.01 inches (221 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through April 2023. This supports likely above normal
temperatures over the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation are also favored for the Hawaiian Islands in April 2023, supported by most dynamical and statistical models.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A50 72.6 0.7 A50 7.4 8.9 11.2
Kahului A60 74.1 0.6 A50 0.5 0.9 1.3
Honolulu A70 76.3 0.5 A50 0.3 0.5 0.7
Lihue A70 74.0 0.6 A50 1.6 1.9 2.8

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2023 - AMJ 2024

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La NiƱa has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are observed across the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the central Pacific Ocean and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the last four weeks. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward, remaining mostly at depth, except near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but weak anomalies continue to reside near the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident in a small area over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023 following dynamical and statistical model forecasts and the official ENSO outlook.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from April-May-June 2023 through Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and statistical forecasts. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures is indicated for Hawaii beginning in October-November-December 2023 and extending through longer leads.

Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from May-June-July to Fall (September-October-November) 2023, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in October-November-December through longer leads.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2023 A40 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2023 A40 74.0 0.4 B40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2023 A40 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2023 A40 76.1 0.4 B50 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2023 A40 76.4 0.4 B50 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2023 A40 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2023 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2023 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2024 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2024 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2024 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2024 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2024 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2023 A40 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2023 A40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2023 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2023 A40 79.0 0.4 B50 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2023 A40 79.4 0.4 B50 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2023 A40 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2023 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2023 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2024 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2024 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2024 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2024 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2024 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2023 A50 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2023 A40 78.2 0.4 B40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2023 A40 79.9 0.4 B40 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2023 A40 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2023 A40 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2023 A40 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2023 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2023 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2024 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2024 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2024 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2024 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2024 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2023 A50 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2023 A40 76.0 0.5 B40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2023 A40 77.7 0.4 B40 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2023 A40 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2023 A40 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2023 A40 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2023 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2023 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2024 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2024 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2024 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2024 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0

FORECASTER: Luke He

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Apr 20, 2023.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities