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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2022
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from negative one half degree Celsius to positive one degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu Maui and Big island) during the previous week.
For January through November 2021, rainfall total accumulations were:
- Lihue Airport 28.36 inches (90 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 10.14 inches (71 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 16.31 inches (122 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 112.98 inches (104 percent of normal)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the
Hawaiian Islands through January 2022. This elevates the chances of above
normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in January 2022. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in January 2022, consistent with La Nina conditions and most dynamical and statistical models. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A45 | 71.6 | 0.5 | | A60 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| Kahului | A50 | 72.1 | 0.6 | | A60 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Honolulu | A60 | 73.3 | 0.5 | | A60 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Lihue | A60 | 71.8 | 0.7 | | A60 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2022 - JFM 2023 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are now present across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies remain at depth in the western Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Nina conditions. La Nina is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 with about 95 percent chance and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 with about 60 percent chance.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands from JFM 2022 to MJJ 2022, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. This seasonal temperature outlook for the Hawaiian Islands is also consistent with continuing La Nina conditions and decadal trends . The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in Summer (JJA) 2022 and thereafter.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from JFM 2022 to MJJ 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. The onset of wetter conditions in winter and persistence of wetter conditions into spring across the Hawaiian Islands is consistent with the impacts of La Nina conditions. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in Summer (JJA) 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2022 | A40 | 71.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2022 | A50 | 71.7 | 0.4 | A55 | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2022 | A60 | 72.0 | 0.5 | A60 | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2022 | A45 | 72.9 | 0.5 | A50 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2022 | A40 | 74.0 | 0.4 | A40 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2022 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2022 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2022 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2022 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2022 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2022 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2023 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2023 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2022 | A40 | 72.5 | 0.4 | A50 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2022 | A50 | 72.3 | 0.4 | A55 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2022 | A60 | 73.0 | 0.4 | A60 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2022 | A45 | 74.3 | 0.5 | A50 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2022 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.5 | A40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2022 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2022 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2022 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2022 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2022 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2022 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2023 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2023 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2022 | A45 | 73.9 | 0.4 | A50 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2022 | A50 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A55 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2022 | A65 | 74.8 | 0.4 | A60 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2022 | A50 | 76.3 | 0.4 | A50 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2022 | A40 | 78.2 | 0.4 | A40 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2022 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2022 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2022 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2022 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2022 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2022 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2023 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2023 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| JFM 2022 | A45 | 72.2 | 0.4 | A50 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2022 | A50 | 72.1 | 0.5 | A55 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2022 | A65 | 72.8 | 0.5 | A60 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2022 | A50 | 74.2 | 0.5 | A50 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2022 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.5 | A40 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2022 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2022 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2022 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2022 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2022 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2022 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2023 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2023 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jan 20, 2022. |
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