Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn OND 2023
    1.5mn NDJ 2023
    2.5mn DJF 2023
    3.5mn JFM 2024
    4.5mn FMA 2024
    5.5mn MAM 2024
    6.5mn AMJ 2024
    7.5mn MJJ 2024
    8.5mn JJA 2024
    9.5mn JAS 2024
   10.5mn ASO 2024
   11.5mn SON 2024
   12.5mn OND 2024
    0.5mn Oct 2023


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2023

During the previous weeks, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies ranged from zero, around the Big Island, to about one-half degree Celsius near Maui, Oahu and Kauai.

For January through August 2023, rainfall total accumulations were:

-Lihue Airport 31.75 inches (144 percent of normal)
-Honolulu Airport 9.78 inches (102 percent of normal)
-Kahului Airport 9.51 inches (92 percent of normal)
-Hilo Airport 76.67 inches (102 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict near-average SSTs around most of the Hawaiian Islands through October 2023, and above-average SSTs near Kauai. Therefore, Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above-normal temperatures are predicted for most islands in October 2023, except above-normal temperatures are predicted for Lihue. Enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation are predicted for all the Hawaiian Islands in October 2023, as indicated by dynamical model forecasts, consistent with the El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo EC 75.7 0.5 B60 7.8 8.6 12.1
Kahului EC 78.2 0.4 B55 0.3 0.6 1.1
Honolulu EC 80.2 0.5 B55 0.5 1.3 1.9
Lihue A40 78.1 0.3 B50 2.5 3.3 4.2

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2023 - OND 2024

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. El Niño conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with anomalies greater than +1.0 degrees Celsius from the Date Line to the coast of South America, with anomalies for much of the East Pacific exceeding +2.0 degrees Celsius. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean amplified in recent weeks in the central and eastern Pacific, down to a depth of approximately 150 meters. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over only a small area of the eastern central equatorial Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over small areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial convection and rainfall were mainly enhanced west of the International Date Line and north of the equator over the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with El Niño conditions. There is a greater than 95% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for northwestern islands of Hawaii for October-November-December (OND) 2023, including Kauai and Oahu. Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through February-March-April (FMA) 2024 for Oahu and Kauai. Equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below-normal temperatures are forecast over the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui for all seasons, as dynamical models predict near-normal temperatures in early leads and statistical models show weaker signals . Equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below-normal temperatures are forecast for all of Hawaii for March-April-May (MAM) and longer leads as climate signals weaken and uncertainty increases.

Below normal precipitation is forecast throughout the Hawaiian Islands in October-November-December (OND) 2023 through March-April-May (MAM) 2024. This is supported by most dynamical models of the NMME, and to some extent the constructed analog (CA) statistical model. The forecast is consistent with prediction of a likely strong El Niño event over the tropical Pacific through next winter and typical impacts to precipitation over Hawaii. Equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below-normal precipitation are forecast for all of Hawaii for April-May-June (AMJ) 2024 and longer leads as climate signals weaken with decreasing chances of a continuation of El Niño.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2023 EC 75.5 0.4 B60 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2023 EC 74.2 0.4 B60 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2024 EC 72.8 0.4 B70 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2024 EC 71.8 0.4 B70 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2024 EC 71.7 0.4 B60 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2024 EC 72.0 0.5 B50 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2024 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2024 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2024 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2024 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2023 EC 77.8 0.4 B60 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2023 EC 75.9 0.4 B60 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2024 EC 73.8 0.4 B70 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2024 EC 72.5 0.4 B70 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2024 EC 72.3 0.4 B60 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2024 EC 73.0 0.4 B50 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2024 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2023 A40 80.0 0.4 B50 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2023 A50 77.7 0.5 B50 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2024 A45 75.3 0.5 B60 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2024 A40 73.9 0.4 B60 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2024 A40 73.8 0.4 B50 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2024 EC 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2024 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2024 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2024 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2024 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2023 A50 77.8 0.3 B50 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2023 A50 75.7 0.3 B50 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2024 A45 73.6 0.4 B60 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2024 A40 72.2 0.4 B60 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2024 A40 72.1 0.5 B50 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2024 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Oct 19, 2023.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities