Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn ASO 2022
    1.5mn SON 2022
    2.5mn OND 2022
    3.5mn NDJ 2022
    4.5mn DJF 2022
    5.5mn JFM 2023
    6.5mn FMA 2023
    7.5mn MAM 2023
    8.5mn AMJ 2023
    9.5mn MJJ 2023
   10.5mn JJA 2023
   11.5mn JAS 2023
   12.5mn ASO 2023
    0.5mn Aug 2022


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jul 21 2022

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2022

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to negative one half degree Celsius were observed over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu), while zero to positive one half degree Celsius SST anomalies were evident over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week.

For January through June 2022, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 14.84 inches (82 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 8.23 inches (100 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 0.66 inches (7 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 47.88 inches (88 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict near average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through August 2022. This supports Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures over the Hawaiian Islands in August 2022. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in August 2022, supported by most dynamical and statistical models.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo EC 76.6 0.4 B50 7.6 8.4 10.3
Kahului EC 79.8 0.4 B50 0.3 0.5 0.6
Honolulu EC 82.1 0.4 B50 0.1 0.2 0.4
Lihue EC 79.7 0.4 B50 1.4 1.8 2.5

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2022 - ASO 2023

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are continuing across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies expanded eastward before weakening and becoming negative in the central Pacific at depth. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central and east-central tropical Pacific. The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are consistent with La Niña conditions. La Niña is favored to continue through 2022, with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for Hilo, Kahului and Honolulu from OND 2022 through DJF 2022-23, and for Lihue from SON 2022 through DJF 2022-23, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in JFM 2023.

Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from ASO 2022 to autumn (SON) 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Most tools favor increased chances of below normal precipitation over Hawaii from NDJ 2022-23 to JFM 2023. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in OND 2022-23, FMA 2023 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2022 EC 76.4 0.4 B50 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2022 EC 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2022 A40 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2022 A40 74.2 0.4 A40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2023 A40 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2023 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2023 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2023 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2023 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2023 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2023 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2023 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2023 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.4 B50 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2022 A40 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2022 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2023 A40 73.8 0.4 A50 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2023 EC 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2023 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2023 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2023 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2023 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2023 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2023 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2023 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2022 EC 81.7 0.4 B50 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2022 EC 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2022 A40 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2022 A40 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2023 A40 75.3 0.5 A50 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2023 EC 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2023 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2023 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2023 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2023 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2023 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2023 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.3 B50 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2022 A40 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2022 A45 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2022 A40 75.7 0.3 A40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2023 A40 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2023 EC 72.2 0.4 A40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2023 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2023 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2023 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2023 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2023 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2023 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2023 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4

FORECASTER: Luke He

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 18, 2022.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities