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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2025
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the range of 0.0 to +1.0 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week.
From January through June 2025, rainfall total accumulations were:
Lihue Airport 10.19 inches (57 percent of average)
Honolulu Airport 8.89 inches (108 percent of average)
Kahului Airport 6.44 inches (70 percent of average)
Hilo Airport 30.14 inches (55 percent of average)
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict above average SSTs around Kauai, Oahu, and Maui through August 2025 and near average SSTs for the Big Island through August 2025. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are also favored to be relatively warm compared to normal for Kauai, Oahu and Maui, while Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are forecast for the Big Island in August 2025. For the August 2025 precipitation outlook, below normal precipitation chances are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | EC | 76.6 | 0.4 | | B55 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 10.3 |
| Kahului | A45 | 79.8 | 0.4 | | B50 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Honolulu | A50 | 82.1 | 0.4 | | B45 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Lihue | A50 | 79.7 | 0.4 | | B40 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2025 - ASO 2026 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions are observed over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean. Over the last couple of months, above-average subsurface temperatures have extended across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A small region of below-average subsurface temperatures has persisted at depth in the far eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection and precipitation was evident around Indonesia. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central and eastern Pacific, while Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern equatorial Pacific. ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast in the CPC ENSO Outlook through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 with a 56% chance in August-October. Chances of La Nina conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26. Development of La Nina would alter the probabilities of precipitation for the Hawaiian Islands, especially in boreal winter, but the state of ENSO at longer lead times is somewhat uncertain as of late spring 2025.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, and Kahului from ASO (August-September-October) 2025 through December-January-February (DJF) 2025-26, favored by most NMME and available C3S dynamical models and decadal temperature trends . Most model guidance supports Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below normal seasonal mean temperatures for the Big Island through September-October-November (SON) 2025, though a substantial number of models support a weak tilt towards above normal temperatures. By October-November-December (OND) 2025, the temperature outlook for all of the islands is favored to be above normal. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore EC is indicated for Hawaii beginning in JFM (January-February-March) 2026 and extending through longer leads.
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are indicated over the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, and Oahu from ASO through SON 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well as decadal trends . For Kauai, weak or conflicting signals warrants EC for ASO, followed by a slight tilt towards below normal precipitation in SON. From OND 2025 through DJF 2025-26, an anomalously wet pattern is predicted by the NMME and its constituent models. This is consistent with an expected ENSO-neutral background and generally near-average trade winds, with consideration of significant probabilities for a La Niña event as well. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in JFM 2026 through longer leads. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2025 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2025 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2025 | A40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | A40 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2025 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | A40 | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2026 | A40 | 72.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2026 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2026 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2026 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2026 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2026 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2026 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2025 | A40 | 79.4 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2025 | A45 | 79.1 | 0.4 | B40 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2025 | A45 | 77.8 | 0.4 | A40 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2025 | A45 | 75.9 | 0.4 | A40 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2026 | A40 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A50 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2026 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2026 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2026 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2026 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2026 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2026 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2025 | A60 | 81.7 | 0.4 | B45 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2025 | A60 | 81.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2025 | A55 | 80.0 | 0.4 | A40 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2025 | A45 | 77.7 | 0.5 | A40 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2026 | A40 | 75.3 | 0.5 | A50 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2026 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2026 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2026 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2026 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2026 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2026 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2025 | A60 | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2025 | A60 | 79.1 | 0.3 | B40 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2025 | A50 | 77.8 | 0.3 | A40 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2025 | A45 | 75.7 | 0.3 | A40 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2026 | A40 | 73.6 | 0.4 | A50 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2026 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2026 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2026 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2026 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2026 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2026 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2026 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2026 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 21, 2025. |
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