Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 

830AM EST THU FEB 21 2019 
 


MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2019 
 


SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREE C TO NEGATIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 WEEKS. 
 
FOR JANUARY 2019, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: 
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 0.58 INCHES (15 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.33 INCHES (14 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.01 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HILO AIRPORT 1.26 INCHES (14 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
 
ALTHOUGH THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR MARCH 2019, RECENT SST ANOMALY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COOLING TREND. HENCE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR MARCH 2019. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING MARCH 2019, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW-FREQUENCY STATE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. 
 
 

 
  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO   EC  72.0  0.6  B60  5.7  10.8  15.2
KAHULUI   EC  72.9  0.5  B60  1.4  1.9  2.9
HONOLULU   EC  74.7  0.5  B60  0.6  0.8  1.9
LIHUE   EC  72.7  0.6  B60  1.9  2.6  3.6
 
 

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2019 - MAM 2020 
 


REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE EXPANDED BETWEEN 90-120W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED NEAR THE DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS WITH PROBABILITIES ABOUT 55% CHANCE FOR CONTINUATION INTO NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2019. 
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM MAM TO JAS 2019 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR ASO 2019 AND BEYOND, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CONDITIONS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES. 
 
WITH THE PREDICTED CONTINUATION OF AN EL NINO, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOLLOWS HISTORICAL EL NINO IMPACTS THAT INDICATE STRONG CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EL NINO AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WINTER AND SPRING. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS, AND AN ENSO-OCN TOOL (THAT COMBINES THE IMPACTS OF EL NINO AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY), FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM MAM TO MJJ 2019, AND FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM MAM TO JJA 2019. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOLS IN JAS 2019 AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.
 
 


 HILO
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
MAM 2019  A40  72.0  0.5  B60  22.5  28.4  34.0
AMJ 2019  A45  72.9  0.5  B50  21.4  23.7  29.0
MJJ 2019  A55  74.0  0.4  B40  20.2  27.5  29.1
JJA 2019  A45  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
JAS 2019  A40  76.1  0.4   EC  25.2  28.6  33.4
ASO 2019   EC  76.4  0.4   EC  26.1  28.8  33.3
SON 2019   EC  76.2  0.4   EC  24.3  30.2  40.8
OND 2019   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
NDJ 2019   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
DJF 2020   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
JFM 2020   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
FMA 2020   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
MAM 2020   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 



 KAHULUI
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
MAM 2019  A40  73.0  0.4  B60  2.5  3.5  4.6 
AMJ 2019  A45  74.3  0.5  B50  1.2  1.6  2.2 
MJJ 2019  A55  76.0  0.5  B40  0.7  1.1  1.8 
JJA 2019  A45  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
SON 2019   EC  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
OND 2019   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
NDJ 2019   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
DJF 2020   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
JFM 2020   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
FMA 2020   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
MAM 2020   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 



 HONOLULU
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
MAM 2019  A40  74.8  0.4  B60  1.8  2.6  3.0 
AMJ 2019  A45  76.3  0.4  B50  1.2  1.6  1.8 
MJJ 2019  A55  78.2  0.4  B45  0.8  1.4  1.6 
JJA 2019  A45  79.9  0.4  B40  0.7  0.8  1.3 
JAS 2019  A40  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
ASO 2019   EC  81.7  0.4   EC  1.6  2.4  3.1 
SON 2019   EC  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
OND 2019   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
NDJ 2019   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
DJF 2020   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
JFM 2020   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
FMA 2020   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
MAM 2020   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 



 LIHUE
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
MAM 2019  A40  72.8  0.5  B60  5.3  6.6  8.0 
AMJ 2019  A45  74.2  0.5  B50  4.7  5.5  6.0 
MJJ 2019  A55  76.0  0.5  B45  4.9  5.4  5.9 
JJA 2019  A45  77.7  0.4  B40  4.4  5.3  6.9 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4  0.3   EC  6.2  7.9  8.4 
SON 2019   EC  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
OND 2019   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
NDJ 2019   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
DJF 2020   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
JFM 2020   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
FMA 2020   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
MAM 2020   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 


FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 


ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1981-2010 MEANS. 
 


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. 
 


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU MAR 21, 2019.
 
 
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