Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 

830AM EST THU JAN 17 2019 
 


MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2019 
 


SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREE C TO POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 WEEKS. 
 
FOR JANUARY 2018 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2018, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: 
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 51.96 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 16.93 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 21.67 INCHES (122 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HILO AIRPORT 174.97 INCHES (138 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
 
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR FEBRUARY 2019. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2019. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING FEBRUARY 2019, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW-FREQUENCY STATE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. 
 
 

 
  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO  A45  71.4  0.5  B55  5.0  8.4  11.1
KAHULUI  A45  71.9  0.6  B55  0.9  1.1  1.8
HONOLULU  A45  73.3  0.5  B55  0.7  1.0  1.4
LIHUE  A45  71.7  0.6  B55  1.3  1.8  4.0
 
 

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2019 - FMA 2020 
 


REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED WHILE DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN，WHILE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE EXPANDED BETWEEN 90-110W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND SUPPRESSED EAST OF THE DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST MODELS INDICATE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO WITH PROBABILITIES NEAR 65% FOR CONTINUATION INTO NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2019. 
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM FMA TO JAS 2019 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR ASO 2019 AND BEYOND, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CONDITIONS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES. 
 
WITH THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR HAWAII FOLLOWS HISTORICAL EL NINO IMPACTS THAT INDICATE STRONG CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EL NINO AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WINTER AND SPRING. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS, AND AN ENSO-OCN TOOL (THAT COMBINES THE IMPACTS OF EL NINO AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY), FOR FMA THROUGH MJJ 2019. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOLS IN JJA 2019 AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.
 
 


 HILO
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2019  A65  71.7  0.4  B65  24.6  34.1  45.5
MAM 2019  A60  72.0  0.5  B60  22.5  28.4  34.0
AMJ 2019  A60  72.9  0.5  B50  21.4  23.7  29.0
MJJ 2019  A55  74.0  0.4  B45  20.2  27.5  29.1
JJA 2019  A45  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
JAS 2019  A40  76.1  0.4   EC  25.2  28.6  33.4
ASO 2019   EC  76.4  0.4   EC  26.1  28.8  33.3
SON 2019   EC  76.2  0.4   EC  24.3  30.2  40.8
OND 2019   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
NDJ 2019   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
DJF 2020   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
JFM 2020   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
FMA 2020   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 



 KAHULUI
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2019  A65  72.3  0.4  B65  3.2  4.1  6.4 
MAM 2019  A60  73.0  0.4  B60  2.5  3.5  4.6 
AMJ 2019  A60  74.3  0.5  B50  1.2  1.6  2.2 
MJJ 2019  A55  76.0  0.5  B45  0.7  1.1  1.8 
JJA 2019  A45  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
SON 2019   EC  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
OND 2019   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
NDJ 2019   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
DJF 2020   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
JFM 2020   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
FMA 2020   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 



 HONOLULU
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2019  A60  73.8  0.4  B65  1.9  3.2  4.7 
MAM 2019  A55  74.8  0.4  B60  1.8  2.6  3.0 
AMJ 2019  A55  76.3  0.4  B50  1.2  1.6  1.8 
MJJ 2019  A50  78.2  0.4  B45  0.8  1.4  1.6 
JJA 2019  A45  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
JAS 2019  A40  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
ASO 2019   EC  81.7  0.4   EC  1.6  2.4  3.1 
SON 2019   EC  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
OND 2019   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
NDJ 2019   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
DJF 2020   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
JFM 2020   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
FMA 2020   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 



 LIHUE
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
FMA 2019  A55  72.1  0.5  B65  5.8  8.4  9.9 
MAM 2019  A50  72.8  0.5  B60  5.3  6.6  8.0 
AMJ 2019  A50  74.2  0.5  B50  4.7  5.5  6.0 
MJJ 2019  A45  76.0  0.5  B45  4.9  5.4  5.9 
JJA 2019  A40  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4  0.3   EC  6.2  7.9  8.4 
SON 2019   EC  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
OND 2019   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
NDJ 2019   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
DJF 2020   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
JFM 2020   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
FMA 2020   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 


FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 


ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1981-2010 MEANS. 
 


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY. 
 


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU FEB 21, 2019.
 
 
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