Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn ASO 2020
    1.5mn SON 2020
    2.5mn OND 2020
    3.5mn NDJ 2020
    4.5mn DJF 2020
    5.5mn JFM 2021
    6.5mn FMA 2021
    7.5mn MAM 2021
    8.5mn AMJ 2021
    9.5mn MJJ 2021
   10.5mn JJA 2021
   11.5mn JAS 2021
   12.5mn ASO 2021
    0.5mn Aug 2020


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2020

Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from less than positive one-half degree to near one degree Celsius were observed in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands during the last several weeks.

For January through June 2020, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 24.43 inches (140 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 8.98 inches (115 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 10.12 Inches (104 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 65.12 Inches (110 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through August 2020. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in August 2020. Nearly all dynamical models from the NMME suite indicate an increased chance of below normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during August 2020.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A55 76.6 0.4 B40 7.6 8.4 10.3
Kahului A60 79.8 0.4 B40 0.3 0.5 0.6
Honolulu A65 82.1 0.4 B40 0.1 0.2 0.4
Lihue A70 79.7 0.4 B40 1.4 1.8 2.5

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2020 - ASO 2021

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. The observed tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean conditions currently are consistent with ENSO-neutral, with near to below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above average SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have diminished and are now confined to the eastern Pacific Ocean, while positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist in the far western Pacific. Tropical convection is suppressed from the Date Line westward across the west-central Pacific but slightly enhanced over the Maritime Continent. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly in the western and east-central tropical Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific. The tropical atmosphere and ocean state is consistent overall with ENSO-neutral. An ENSO-neutral state is likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with a probability of about 55 percent. The probability of La Nina increases during autumn 2020 and winter 2020-21 to greater than 50%, while the probability of ENSO-neutral persistence decreases.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from ASO 2020 to JFM 2021, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts through DJF 2020-21, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through JFM 2021. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in FMA 2021 and thereafter.

The consolidation of dynamical and statistical tools indicates an enhanced likelihood of below normal precipitation from ASO 2020 through OND 2020 over all Hawaiian Islands, though some statistical tools such as the CA indicate above normal is more likely for Hawaii during the beginning of this period. A statistical forecast combining the impacts of the ENSO state and decadal trends predicts likely below normal precipitation through OND 2020, as below normal precipitation in late summer and early autumn is consistent with negative SST anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the potential development of La Nina in autumn. An increased likelihood of above normal precipitation in winter is consistent with La Nina. However there remains significant uncertainty in the development and persistence of La Nina by winter. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts among available dynamical and statistical tools over the Hawaiian Islands in NDJ 2020 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated in later seasons.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2020 A60 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2020 A55 76.2 0.4 B45 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2020 A55 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2020 A50 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2021 A45 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2021 A40 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2021 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2021 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2021 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2021 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2021 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2021 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2021 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2020 A65 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2020 A60 79.1 0.4 B45 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2020 A55 77.8 0.4 B40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2020 A50 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2021 A45 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2021 A40 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2021 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2021 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2021 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2021 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2021 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2020 A65 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2020 A60 81.4 0.4 B45 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2020 A55 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2020 A50 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2021 A45 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2021 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2021 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2021 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2021 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2021 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2021 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2021 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2021 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2020 A70 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2020 A65 79.1 0.3 B45 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2020 A55 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2020 A50 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2021 A45 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2021 A40 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2021 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2021 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2021 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2021 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2021 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 20, 2020.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities