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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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More Outlooks
    0.5mn NDJ 2020
    1.5mn DJF 2020
    2.5mn JFM 2021
    3.5mn FMA 2021
    4.5mn MAM 2021
    5.5mn AMJ 2021
    6.5mn MJJ 2021
    7.5mn JJA 2021
    8.5mn JAS 2021
    9.5mn ASO 2021
   10.5mn SON 2021
   11.5mn OND 2021
   12.5mn NDJ 2021
    0.5mn Nov 2020


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2020

Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from less than positive one-half degree to near one degree Celsius were observed in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands during the last several weeks.

For January through September 2020, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 31.64 inches (134 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 9.95 inches (104 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 10.71 Inches (97 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 83.43 Inches (93 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through November 2020. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in November 2020. Most dynamical models indicate an increased chance of above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during November 2020.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A60 74.4 0.4 A50 8.7 11.4 17.1
Kahului A65 76.0 0.6 A50 1.2 1.8 2.6
Honolulu A70 77.8 0.6 A50 0.9 1.4 2.1
Lihue A70 75.8 0.5 A50 2.6 3.5 5.5

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2020 - NDJ 2021

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. The observed tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean conditions currently are consistent with La Nina, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above average SSTs in the far western equatorial Pacific. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted in the eastern Pacific Ocean and positive subsurface temperature anomalies have continued in the western Pacific Ocean and at depth near the Date Line. Tropical convection is suppressed from the west-central Pacific to the Date Line, and a slight enhancement of convection emerged over Indonesia. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were evident from the western to the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were apparent over the east-central Pacific. The tropical atmosphere and ocean state is consistent overall with La Nina. La Nina conditions are likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21, with a probability of about 85 percent. and into spring 2021 (about 60 percent chance during February-April)

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from NDJ 2020 to AMJ 2021, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts through MAM 2021, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through AMJ 2021. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in MJJ 2021 and thereafter.

Most dynamical models and a statistical forecast combining the impacts of the ENSO state and decadal trends predict likely above normal precipitation from NDJ 2020 through MAM 2021, consistent with negative SST anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and continuing La Nina conditions through the winter. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts among available dynamical and statistical tools over the Hawaiian Islands in AMJ 2021 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated in these seasons.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2020 A60 74.2 0.4 A45 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2021 A55 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2021 A55 71.8 0.4 A60 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2021 A50 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2021 A45 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2021 A40 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2021 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2021 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2021 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2021 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2021 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2021 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2021 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2020 A65 75.9 0.4 A45 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2021 A60 73.8 0.4 A50 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2021 A55 72.5 0.4 A60 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2021 A50 72.3 0.4 A50 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2021 A45 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2021 A40 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2021 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2021 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2021 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2021 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2021 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2020 A65 77.7 0.5 A45 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2021 A60 75.3 0.5 A50 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2021 A55 73.9 0.4 A60 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2021 A50 73.8 0.4 A50 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2021 A45 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2021 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2021 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2021 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2021 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2021 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2021 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2021 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2021 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2020 A70 75.7 0.3 A45 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2021 A65 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2021 A55 72.2 0.4 A60 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2021 A50 72.1 0.5 A50 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2021 A45 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2021 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2021 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2021 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2021 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2021 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2021 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9

FORECASTER: Luke He

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Nov 19, 2020.


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