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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn JFM 2021
    1.5mn FMA 2021
    2.5mn MAM 2021
    3.5mn AMJ 2021
    4.5mn MJJ 2021
    5.5mn JJA 2021
    6.5mn JAS 2021
    7.5mn ASO 2021
    8.5mn SON 2021
    9.5mn OND 2021
   10.5mn NDJ 2021
   11.5mn DJF 2021
   12.5mn JFM 2022
    0.5mn Jan 2021


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2021

Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from greater than positive one-half degree to greater than one degree Celsius were observed in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands during the last several weeks.

For January through November 2020, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 40.88 inches (128 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 13.31 inches (96 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 11.22 Inches (77 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 107.04 Inches (93 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through January 2021. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in January 2021. Most dynamical models indicate an increased chance of above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during January 2021, as is typical of La Nina.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A70 71.6 0.5 A60 3.1 8.9 11.8
Kahului A70 72.1 0.6 A60 1.2 2.3 2.8
Honolulu A70 73.3 0.5 A60 0.7 1.1 2.1
Lihue A75 71.8 0.7 A60 1.3 2.2 4.8

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2021 - JFM 2022

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. The observed tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean conditions are consistent with the ongoing La Nina, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above average SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean from the Maritime Continent to 160 E latitude. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies persist in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist in the western Pacific Ocean and at depth near the Date Line. Tropical convection is suppressed from the western to the central Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed from the western to the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina conditions are likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a probability of about 95 percent, into spring 2021 (about 65 percent chance during March-April-May), and transition to neutral conditions in AMJ 2021 (with a probability exceeding 50 percent).

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from JFM to JJA 2021, consistent with predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts through MJJ 2021, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through JJA 2021. Above normal temperature forecasts for Hawaii through MAM 2021 are also consistent with the impacts of a continued La Nina. Climate forcing signals , including ENSO, weaken at longer leads, such that Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in JAS 2021 and thereafter.

Most dynamical models , and a statistical model combining the impacts of the predicted ENSO state and decadal climate trends , predict likely above normal precipitation from JFM through AMJ 2021, consistent with negative SST anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and continuing La Nina conditions through the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in MJJ 2021 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2021 A65 71.8 0.4 A65 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2021 A60 71.7 0.4 A60 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2021 A55 72.0 0.5 A50 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2021 A50 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2021 A45 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2021 A40 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2021 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2021 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2021 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2021 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2021 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2022 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2022 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2021 A65 72.5 0.4 A65 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2021 A60 72.3 0.4 A60 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2021 A55 73.0 0.4 A50 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2021 A50 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2021 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2021 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2021 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2021 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2021 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2022 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2022 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2021 A65 73.9 0.4 A65 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2021 A60 73.8 0.4 A60 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2021 A55 74.8 0.4 A50 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2021 A50 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2021 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2021 A40 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2021 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2021 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2021 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2021 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2021 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2022 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2022 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2021 A70 72.2 0.4 A65 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2021 A65 72.1 0.5 A60 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2021 A55 72.8 0.5 A50 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2021 A50 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2021 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2021 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2021 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2021 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2021 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2022 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2022 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jan 21, 2021.


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