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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2020
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are about positive one half to one degrees Celsius surrounding the Hawaiian Islands during the previous week.
For January 2019 through December 2019, rainfall total accumulations were:
- Lihue Airport 38.46 inches (104 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 16.61 inches (97 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 12.79 Inches (72 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 100.82 Inches (80 percent of normal)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands for February 2020. Model guidance from the NMME indicates anomalies of one-half to 1 degree C above normal are expected to continue. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in February 2020. Most dynamical models predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during February 2020.
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| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A65 | 71.4 | 0.5 | | A45 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| Kahului | A65 | 71.9 | 0.6 | | A45 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Honolulu | A65 | 73.3 | 0.5 | | A45 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Lihue | A65 | 71.7 | 0.6 | | A45 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2020 - FMA 2021 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a discussion of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to above average across the Pacific Ocean and positive SST anomalies are largest near the Date Line. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward to the eastern Pacific in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave. Tropical convection is suppressed over Indonesia and east of the Date Line, and is enhanced to the west of the Date Line. ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 with probabilities about 60% and continuing through summer 2020 with probabilities about 50%.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from FMA 2020 to JJA 2020, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through JAS 2020. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in ASO 2020 and thereafter.
Most dynamical models from the NMME predict above normal precipitation over Hilo and Kahului from FMA 2020 through MJJ 2020, and over Honolulu and Lihue from FMA 2020 through AMJ 2020. There is considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecast among available dynamical and statistical tools over Hilo and Kahului in JJA 2020, and over Honolulu and Lihue in MJJ 2020, and in longer leads, so equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2020 | A65 | 71.7 | 0.4 | A45 | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2020 | A60 | 72.0 | 0.5 | A45 | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | A55 | 72.9 | 0.5 | A40 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2020 | A50 | 74.0 | 0.4 | A40 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2020 | A45 | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2020 | A40 | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2020 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2020 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2021 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2021 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2020 | A65 | 72.3 | 0.4 | A45 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2020 | A55 | 73.0 | 0.4 | A45 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2020 | A50 | 74.3 | 0.5 | A40 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2020 | A45 | 76.0 | 0.5 | A40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2020 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2020 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2020 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2020 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2021 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2021 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2020 | A65 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A45 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2020 | A55 | 74.8 | 0.4 | A40 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | A50 | 76.3 | 0.4 | A40 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2020 | A45 | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2020 | A40 | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2020 | A40 | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2020 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2020 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2021 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2021 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2020 | A65 | 72.1 | 0.5 | A45 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2020 | A60 | 72.8 | 0.5 | A40 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | A55 | 74.2 | 0.5 | A40 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2020 | A50 | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2020 | A45 | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2020 | A40 | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2020 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2020 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2021 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2021 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Feb 20, 2020. |
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