Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2025 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies about +1.0 to +2.0 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January through March 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 3.78 inches (31 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 7.34 inches (120 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 5.01 inches (71 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 16.88 inches (55 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) favor positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in May 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for May, 2025. 
 
For the May 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and C3S predict above normal precipitation across Kauai and Oahu, while Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated for Maui and the Big Island. Weak probabilities favoring above or below normal precipitation are indicated in the May precipitation outlook, supported by most dynamical model forecasts.
 
 
 





  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 Hilo  A70  74.0  0.5   EC  4.1  7.4  8.7
 Kahului  A70  75.8  0.6   EC  0.2  0.5  0.8
 Honolulu  A70  78.0  0.6  A40  0.2  0.4  0.8
 Lihue  A70  75.8  0.6  A40  1.3  1.5  2.3
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2025 - MJJ 2026 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions are observed over the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean and are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Near-to-below-average subsurface temperatures continue to prevail in the central Pacific Ocean, while above-average temperatures remain in the western Pacific and in a shallow layer near the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and precipitation was observed around the Date Line and western Pacific. Enhanced convection and precipitation was enhanced near Indonesia. ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-September-October 2025. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island for MJJ (May-June-July) through September-October-November (SON) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends . Due to weakening signals  in forecast guidance at longer leads, EC for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in OND (October-November-December) 2025 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast across Kauai and Oahu from MJJ to ASO (August-September-October) 2025, and over Maui from MJJ to JJA, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts. Below normal precipitation is predicted over the Big Island from JJA to ASO. Due to weaker signals  in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated for equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for Kauai and Oahu beginning in SON 2025, for Maui in JAS, and the Big Island beyond ASO and extending through longer leads.
 
 
















 Hilo
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 MJJ 2025  A70  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
 JJA 2025  A70  75.2  0.4  B40  19.4  27.2  31.4
 JAS 2025  A70  76.1  0.4  B40  25.2  28.6  33.4
 ASO 2025  A60  76.4  0.4  B40  26.1  28.8  33.3
 SON 2025  A50  76.2  0.4   EC  24.3  30.2  40.8
 OND 2025   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
 NDJ 2025   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
 DJF 2026   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
 JFM 2026   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
 FMA 2026   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 MAM 2026   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 AMJ 2026   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
 MJJ 2026   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
 

















 Kahului
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 MJJ 2025  A70  76.0  0.5  A40  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 JJA 2025  A70  77.7  0.4  A40  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 JAS 2025  A70  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 ASO 2025  A70  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
 SON 2025  A60  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
 OND 2025   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
 DJF 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
 JFM 2026   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
 FMA 2026   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 MAM 2026   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 

















 Honolulu
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 MJJ 2025  A70  78.2  0.4  A50  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 JJA 2025  A70  79.9  0.4  A50  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 JAS 2025  A70  81.3  0.4  A40  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 ASO 2025  A70  81.7  0.4  A40  1.6  2.4  3.1 
 SON 2025  A60  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
 OND 2025   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
 NDJ 2025   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
 DJF 2026   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
 JFM 2026   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
 FMA 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 MAM 2026   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 MJJ 2026   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 

















 Lihue
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 MJJ 2025  A70  76.0  0.5  A50  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 JJA 2025  A70  77.7  0.4  A50  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 JAS 2025  A70  79.0  0.3  A40  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 ASO 2025  A70  79.4  0.3  A40  6.2  7.9  8.4 
 SON 2025  A60  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
 OND 2025   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
 DJF 2026   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
 JFM 2026   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
 FMA 2026   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 MAM 2026   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 

FORECASTER: Luke He 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu May 15, 2025.
 
 
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