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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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More Outlooks
    0.5mn FMA 2020
    1.5mn MAM 2020
    2.5mn AMJ 2020
    3.5mn MJJ 2020
    4.5mn JJA 2020
    5.5mn JAS 2020
    6.5mn ASO 2020
    7.5mn SON 2020
    8.5mn OND 2020
    9.5mn NDJ 2020
   10.5mn DJF 2020
   11.5mn JFM 2021
   12.5mn FMA 2021
    0.5mn Feb 2020


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2020

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are about positive one half to one degrees Celsius surrounding the Hawaiian Islands during the previous week.

For January 2019 through December 2019, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 38.46 inches (104 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 16.61 inches (97 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 12.79 Inches (72 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 100.82 Inches (80 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands for February 2020. Model guidance from the NMME indicates anomalies of one-half to 1 degree C above normal are expected to continue. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in February 2020. Most dynamical models predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during February 2020.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A65 71.4 0.5 A45 5.0 8.4 11.1
Kahului A65 71.9 0.6 A45 0.9 1.1 1.8
Honolulu A65 73.3 0.5 A45 0.7 1.0 1.4
Lihue A65 71.7 0.6 A45 1.3 1.8 4.0

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2020 - FMA 2021

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a discussion of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to above average across the Pacific Ocean and positive SST anomalies are largest near the Date Line. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have shifted eastward to the eastern Pacific in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave. Tropical convection is suppressed over Indonesia and east of the Date Line, and is enhanced to the west of the Date Line. ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 with probabilities about 60% and continuing through summer 2020 with probabilities about 50%.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from FMA 2020 to JJA 2020, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through JAS 2020. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in ASO 2020 and thereafter.

Most dynamical models from the NMME predict above normal precipitation over Hilo and Kahului from FMA 2020 through MJJ 2020, and over Honolulu and Lihue from FMA 2020 through AMJ 2020. There is considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecast among available dynamical and statistical tools over Hilo and Kahului in JJA 2020, and over Honolulu and Lihue in MJJ 2020, and in longer leads, so equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2020 A65 71.7 0.4 A45 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2020 A60 72.0 0.5 A45 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2020 A55 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2020 A50 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2020 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2020 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2020 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2020 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2020 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2020 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2021 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2021 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2021 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2020 A65 72.3 0.4 A45 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2020 A55 73.0 0.4 A45 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2020 A50 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2020 A45 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2020 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2020 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2020 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2020 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2020 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2020 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2021 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2021 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2021 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2020 A65 73.8 0.4 A45 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2020 A55 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2020 A50 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2020 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2020 A40 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2020 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2020 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2020 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2020 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2020 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2021 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2021 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2021 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2020 A65 72.1 0.5 A45 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2020 A60 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2020 A55 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2020 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2020 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2020 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2020 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2020 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2020 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2020 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2021 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2021 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2021 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9

FORECASTER: Luke He

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Feb 20, 2020.


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