Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2025 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the range of +0.5 to +1.0 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
From January through May 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 8.64 inches (53 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 8.82 inches (114 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 6.44 inches (71 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 24.76 inches (53 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict near to slightly above normal SSTs for the Big Island in July 2025, with somewhat higher probabilities favoring above normal SSTs for the remainder of the island chain. As is most often the cas e, the Hawaiian surface temperature pattern mirrors that of the surrounding SST anomaly pattern. 
 
For the July 2025 precipitation outlook, there is substantial variance between the models of the NMME and IMME/C3S. However, the general tendency favors a relatively dry pattern for the Big Island and Maui, with increasing chances of relative wetness northwestward from Maui (i.e. with wetness being slightly more likely for Kauai than for Oahu). A few models (CFS, CanESM5, and the NCAR CCSM4) favor below-normal precipitation across the entire archipelago.
 
 
 





  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 Hilo  A40  76.2  0.4  B50  7.1  9.5  11.4
 Kahului  A45  79.2  0.4  B40  0.2  0.4  0.5
 Honolulu  A50  81.4  0.5   EC  0.2  0.4  0.5
 Lihue  A50  79.2  0.4  A40  1.5  1.7  1.9
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2025 - JAS 2026 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions continued over the Pacific Ocean through May. Equatorial SST anomalies are near to slightly above normal across much of the Pacific Ocean. Weak negative SST anomalies are observed over parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean have dissipated in the last several weeks. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist at depths of 75 to 200 meters in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies are easterly over the east-central Pacific, and upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection and precipitation were observed over Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflects ENSO-neutral. Most dynamical and statistical models predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through boreal summer. Some models, such as the CPC SST Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) predict the development of a La Niña in summer by forecasts of negative Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies reaching the -0.5 C threshold in JJA 2025, dipping to a minimum of about -1.2 C (moderate intensity La Niña) in NDJ and DJF 2025-26, and then recovering to just above the -0.5 C threshold by next spring (AMJ 2026). ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast in the CPC ENSO Outlook with a greater probability than La Niña through the January-February-March (JFM) 2026 season, although the probability of the development of La Niña increases through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, coming to within ten percentage points during OND and NDJ. Development of La Niña would alter the probabilities of precipitation for the Hawaiian Islands, especially in boreal winter, but the state of ENSO at longer lead times is somewhat uncertain as of late spring 2025. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, and Kahului from JAS (July-August-September) through October-November-December (OND) 2025, favored by most NMME and available C3S dynamical models  and decadal temperature trends . Most model guidance supports Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below normal seasonal mean temperatures for the Big Island through OND, though a substantial number of models support a weak tilt towards above normal temperatures. By NDJ, the temperature outlook for all of the islands is favored to be above normal. The chances for above normal temperatures are greater for northwestern islands of Hawaii, and gradually diminish towards the southeastern islands. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are indicated over the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui, and Oahu from JAS through September-October-November (SON) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well as decadal trends . For Kauai, weak or conflicting signals  warrants EC for JAS, followed by a slight tilt towards below normal precipitation in both ASO and SON. For the autumn and early winter seasons of OND and NDJ, a transition towards an anomalously wet pattern is predicted by the NMME and its constituent models, initially favoring a forecast of EC for most islands in OND, and completing the transition to a wetter pattern in NDJ. The dynamical model forecasts depict Kauai as most likely to complete the transition to a wetter-than-normal pattern first, favoring above normal precipitation as early as OND. This is consistent with an expected ENSO-neutral background and generally near-average trade winds, with consideration of significant probabilities for a La Niña event as well.
 
 
















 Hilo
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2025   EC  76.1  0.4  B60  25.2  28.6  33.4
 ASO 2025   EC  76.4  0.4  B50  26.1  28.8  33.3
 SON 2025   EC  76.2  0.4  B40  24.3  30.2  40.8
 OND 2025   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
 NDJ 2025  A40  74.2  0.4  A40  26.4  36.6  43.0
 DJF 2026   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
 JFM 2026   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
 FMA 2026   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 MAM 2026   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 AMJ 2026   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
 MJJ 2026   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
 JJA 2026   EC  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
 JAS 2026   EC  76.1  0.4   EC  25.2  28.6  33.4
 

















 Kahului
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2025  A40  79.0  0.4  B55  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 ASO 2025  A45  79.4  0.4  B45  0.8  1.6  2.5 
 SON 2025  A45  79.1  0.4  B40  2.1  3.3  4.8 
 OND 2025  A45  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
 NDJ 2025  A40  75.9  0.4  A40  5.2  7.6  9.5 
 DJF 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
 JFM 2026   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
 FMA 2026   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 MAM 2026   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 JJA 2026   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 JAS 2026   EC  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 

















 Honolulu
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2025  A50  81.3  0.4  B45  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 ASO 2025  A50  81.7  0.4  B45  1.6  2.4  3.1 
 SON 2025  A55  81.4  0.4  B40  2.5  4.0  5.6 
 OND 2025  A45  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
 NDJ 2025  A40  77.7  0.5  A45  3.9  5.6  8.8 
 DJF 2026   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
 JFM 2026   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
 FMA 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 MAM 2026   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 MJJ 2026   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 JJA 2026   EC  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 JAS 2026   EC  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 

















 Lihue
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2025  A55  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 ASO 2025  A60  79.4  0.3  B40  6.2  7.9  8.4 
 SON 2025  A60  79.1  0.3  B40  9.2  10.0  11.2
 OND 2025  A50  77.8  0.3  A40  9.2  11.7  15.6
 NDJ 2025  A40  75.7  0.3  A50  8.6  12.1  16.9
 DJF 2026   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
 JFM 2026   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
 FMA 2026   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 MAM 2026   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 JJA 2026   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 JAS 2026   EC  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jul 17, 2025.
 
 
$$