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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn JFM 2022
    1.5mn FMA 2022
    2.5mn MAM 2022
    3.5mn AMJ 2022
    4.5mn MJJ 2022
    5.5mn JJA 2022
    6.5mn JAS 2022
    7.5mn ASO 2022
    8.5mn SON 2022
    9.5mn OND 2022
   10.5mn NDJ 2022
   11.5mn DJF 2022
   12.5mn JFM 2023
    0.5mn Jan 2022


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JANUARY 2022

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from negative one half degree Celsius to positive one degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu Maui and Big island) during the previous week.

For January through November 2021, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 28.36 inches (90 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 10.14 inches (71 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 16.31 inches (122 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 112.98 inches (104 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the
Hawaiian Islands through January 2022. This elevates the chances of above
normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in January 2022. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Hawaiian Islands in January 2022, consistent with La Nina conditions and most dynamical and statistical models.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A45 71.6 0.5 A60 3.1 8.9 11.8
Kahului A50 72.1 0.6 A60 1.2 2.3 2.8
Honolulu A60 73.3 0.5 A60 0.7 1.1 2.1
Lihue A60 71.8 0.7 A60 1.3 2.2 4.8

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JFM 2022 - JFM 2023

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are now present across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies remain at depth in the western Pacific Ocean, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies have persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Nina conditions. La Nina is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 with about 95 percent chance and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 with about 60 percent chance.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands from JFM 2022 to MJJ 2022, consistent with dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. This seasonal temperature outlook for the Hawaiian Islands is also consistent with continuing La Nina conditions and decadal trends . The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in Summer (JJA) 2022 and thereafter.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from JFM 2022 to MJJ 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. The onset of wetter conditions in winter and persistence of wetter conditions into spring across the Hawaiian Islands is consistent with the impacts of La Nina conditions. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in Summer (JJA) 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2022 A40 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2022 A50 71.7 0.4 A55 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2022 A60 72.0 0.5 A60 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2022 A45 72.9 0.5 A50 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2022 A40 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2022 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2022 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2022 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2022 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2022 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2022 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2023 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2023 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2022 A40 72.5 0.4 A50 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2022 A50 72.3 0.4 A55 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2022 A60 73.0 0.4 A60 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2022 A45 74.3 0.5 A50 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2022 A40 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2022 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2022 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2023 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2023 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2022 A45 73.9 0.4 A50 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2022 A50 73.8 0.4 A55 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2022 A65 74.8 0.4 A60 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2022 A50 76.3 0.4 A50 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2022 A40 78.2 0.4 A40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2022 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2022 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2022 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2022 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2022 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2022 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2023 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2023 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2022 A45 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2022 A50 72.1 0.5 A55 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2022 A65 72.8 0.5 A60 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2022 A50 74.2 0.5 A50 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2022 A40 76.0 0.5 A40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2022 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2022 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2022 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2022 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2022 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2023 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2023 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8

FORECASTER: Luke He

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jan 20, 2022.


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