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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    0.5mn ASO 2019
    1.5mn SON 2019
    2.5mn OND 2019
    3.5mn NDJ 2019
    4.5mn DJF 2019
    5.5mn JFM 2020
    6.5mn FMA 2020
    7.5mn MAM 2020
    8.5mn AMJ 2020
    9.5mn MJJ 2020
   10.5mn JJA 2020
   11.5mn JAS 2020
   12.5mn ASO 2020
    0.5mn Aug 2019


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2019

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are around positive one half to about one and one half degrees Celsius surrounding the Hawaiian Islands during the previous week.

For January 2019 through June 2019, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 14.32 inches (82 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 8.76 inches (112 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 9.53 Inches (98 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 38.43 Inches (65 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands for August 2019. Model guidance from NMME and IMME indicate anomalies of 1-2 degrees C above normal.This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in August 2019. Most dynamical models predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during August 2019, with some statistical tools indicating near or below average rains, especially for Lihue. The statistical tools outlooks for ENSO are at odds with the dynamical model outlooks and the official outlook from CPC and IRI, so the statistical tools are discounted this month.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A65 76.6 0.4 A45 7.6 8.4 10.3
Kahului A65 79.8 0.4 A45 0.3 0.5 0.6
Honolulu A65 82.1 0.4 A45 0.1 0.2 0.4
Lihue A65 79.7 0.4 A40 1.4 1.8 2.5

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2019 - ASO 2020

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a discussion of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. Weak El Nino conditions are present, with a transition to ENSO neutral expected in the next month or two. A mixture of above and below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are present from 140W to the coast of South America, with warmer than average temperatures in the central Pacific. In the subsurface, a swath of colder than average water is present from 130E to 140W, from 100-200 meters below the surface. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the far eastern Pacific.

The statistical tool outlooks for ENSO are at odds with the dynamical model outlooks and the official outlook from CPC and IRI, so the statistical tools are discounted this month. That results in a relatively heavy weighting of the dynamical models from the NMME and IMME suites. Those models generally predict above normal temperatures, and the outlook here reflects those outputs, though the official outlook is slightly more conservative in the early leads. Through the winter, the consolidation depicts uncertainty between near and above normal temperatures, so equal chances is indicated from JFM to MAM 2020. From AMJ to ASO 2020, trends slightly favor above normal temperatures.

The precipitation outlook reflects the dynamical model output and a transition to ENSO neutral during early autumn. During transition to ENSO neutral, relationships from SSTs to precipitation weaken quickly, and intraseasonal variability is likely to dominate. Dynamical models (NMME) tilt toward above normal precipitation with some statistical tools on the drier side, compared to the dynamical models . The official outlook is between the two sets of tools. Trade winds are likely to return to normal levels as the calendar advances through 2019, which could lead to locally drier conditions on leeward sections of the islands, though the overall climate scale circulations still favor above normal precipitation as the most likely single category. The human With the predicted ENSO neutral state later in the year, a return to climatological conditions necessitates an equal chances forecast for later in 2019.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2019 A65 76.4 0.4 A50 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2019 A60 76.2 0.4 A45 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2019 A55 75.5 0.4 A40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2019 A50 74.2 0.4 A40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2020 A45 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2020 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2020 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2020 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2020 A40 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2020 A40 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2020 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2020 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2020 A40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2019 A65 79.4 0.4 A50 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2019 A60 79.1 0.4 A45 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2019 A55 77.8 0.4 A40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2019 A50 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2020 A45 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2020 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2020 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2020 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2020 A40 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2020 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2020 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2020 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2020 A40 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2019 A65 81.7 0.4 A45 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2019 A60 81.4 0.4 A45 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2019 A50 80.0 0.4 A40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2019 A45 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2020 A40 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2020 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2020 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2020 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2020 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2020 A40 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2020 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2020 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2020 A40 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2019 A65 79.4 0.3 A45 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2019 A60 79.1 0.3 A45 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2019 A50 77.8 0.3 A40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2019 A45 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2020 A40 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2020 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2020 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2020 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2020 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2020 A40 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2020 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2020 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2020 A40 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4

FORECASTER: Matthew Rosencrans

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 15, 2019.


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