Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2022 
 
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from zero to positive one half degree Celsius were observed over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu), with even stronger anomalies further north and west. SST anomalies were zero to negative one half degree Celsius SST anomalies were evident over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
For January through May 2022, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
- Lihue Airport 14.37 inches (89 percent of normal) 
- Honolulu Airport 8.22 inches (106 percent of normal) 
- Kahului Airport 0.65 inches (7 percent of normal) 
- Hilo Airport 40.46 inches (86 percent of normal) 
 
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North 
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict near average SSTs around the larger of the Hawaiian Islands through July 2022, with above normal SSTs for the northwestern islands. This elevates the chances of below normal monthly mean air temperatures over the southeastern islands (Maui and the Big Island) and Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures over the northwestern islands (Kauai and Oahu) in July 2022. Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Hawaiian Islands in July 2022, supported by most dynamical and statistical models. 
 
 
 





  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 Hilo  B40  76.2  0.4  B40  7.1  9.5  11.4
 Kahului  B40  79.2  0.4  B40  0.2  0.4  0.5
 Honolulu   EC  81.4  0.5  B40  0.2  0.4  0.5
 Lihue   EC  79.2  0.4  B50  1.5  1.7  1.9
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2022 - JAS 2023 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. La Nina conditions are continuing across the Pacific Ocean, with below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative sea temperature anomalies extend from about 170E to the coast of South America, and extend downward to between 50 and 100 meters for much of the equatorial Pacific. East of 120W, the negative anomalies extend down to 150m or more. An area of positive anomalies extends, from 130E to 150W at depths from 100 to 300 meters. The eastward extent of the warmth at depth did not move much during the month of May. Low-level easterly wind anomalies are evident over much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, though weakened in the latest analysis covering the last 4 weeks compared to the analysis a week ago. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies and an anomalous cyclonic couplet were observed over the central and east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, little change from the prior analysis. The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are consistent with La Nina conditions. La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance). 
 
Enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures are forecast for Hilo from JAS through ASO 2022, for Kahului, Honolulu and Lihue for only JAS 2022, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME. The NMME output has enhanced for near-normal while many of the constituent models show weak signals . For later autumn and into early winter, NMME and constructed analogs  show some above normal temperatures moving into the Northwestern islands, and into the larger islands by OND. Uncertainty about the southern extent of the above normal temperatures is reflected in the outlook, as the outlook for Hilo remains EC during the winter months. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands from summer (JAS) 2022 to autumn (SON) 2022, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in OND 2022 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.
 
 
















 Hilo
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2022  B40  76.1  0.4  B50  25.2  28.6  33.4
 ASO 2022  B40  76.4  0.4  B45  26.1  28.8  33.3
 SON 2022   EC  76.2  0.4  B40  24.3  30.2  40.8
 OND 2022   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
 NDJ 2022   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
 DJF 2023   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
 JFM 2023   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
 FMA 2023   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 MAM 2023   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 AMJ 2023   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
 MJJ 2023   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
 JJA 2023   EC  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
 JAS 2023   EC  76.1  0.4  B40  25.2  28.6  33.4
 

















 Kahului
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2022  B40  79.0  0.4  B50  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 ASO 2022   EC  79.4  0.4  B45  0.8  1.6  2.5 
 SON 2022   EC  79.1  0.4  B40  2.1  3.3  4.8 
 OND 2022   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
 NDJ 2022  A40  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
 DJF 2023  A40  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
 JFM 2023   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
 FMA 2023   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 MAM 2023   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 AMJ 2023   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 MJJ 2023   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 JJA 2023   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 JAS 2023   EC  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 

















 Honolulu
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2022  B40  81.3  0.4  B50  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 ASO 2022   EC  81.7  0.4  B45  1.6  2.4  3.1 
 SON 2022   EC  81.4  0.4  B40  2.5  4.0  5.6 
 OND 2022   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
 NDJ 2022  A40  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
 DJF 2023  A40  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
 JFM 2023   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
 FMA 2023   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 MAM 2023   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 AMJ 2023   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 MJJ 2023   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 JJA 2023   EC  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 JAS 2023   EC  81.3  0.4   EC  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 

















 Lihue
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JAS 2022  B40  79.0  0.3  B50  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 ASO 2022   EC  79.4  0.3  B45  6.2  7.9  8.4 
 SON 2022   EC  79.1  0.3  B40  9.2  10.0  11.2
 OND 2022  A40  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
 NDJ 2022  A45  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
 DJF 2023  A50  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
 JFM 2023   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
 FMA 2023   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 MAM 2023   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 AMJ 2023   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 MJJ 2023   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 JJA 2023   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 JAS 2023   EC  79.0  0.3   EC  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 

FORECASTER: Matthew Rosencrans 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jul 21, 2022.
 
 
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