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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2019
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are around positive one half to about two degrees Celsius surrounding the Hawaiian Islands during the previous week.
For January 2019 through July 2019, rainfall total accumulations were:
- Lihue Airport 16.04 inches (83 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 8.88 inches (106 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 9.68 Inches (95 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 47.99 Inches (68 percent of normal)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands for September 2019. Model guidance from the NMME and IMME indicate anomalies of 1-2 degrees C above normal.This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in September 2019. Most dynamical models predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during September 2019, consistent with the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) forecast tool. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A65 | 76.4 | 0.5 | | A45 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| Kahului | A65 | 79.3 | 0.4 | | A45 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Honolulu | A65 | 81.8 | 0.4 | | A45 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Lihue | A65 | 79.4 | 0.3 | | A45 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2019 - SON 2020 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a discussion of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the western and central Pacific Ocean and are below average in the eastern Pacific. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have weakened across the Pacific, but still remain in the central Pacific, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded in the eastern Pacific. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific. ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-2020 (with a 50-55% chance).
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from SON 2019 to JFM 2020, due to persistent above normal sea surface temperatures predicted by the NMME dynamical models , and also supported by statistical models including the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) and Constructed Analog (CA). The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near, or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in FMA 2020 and beyond.
Most dynamical models predict larger signals for above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during SON 2019 to NDJ 2019-2020, though some statistical tools are on the drier side. Increasing uncertainty in the tropical climate state in DJF 2019-2020 and longer leads, leads to an indication of equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below normal precipitation for Hawaii. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| SON 2019 | A65 | 76.2 | 0.4 | A50 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2019 | A60 | 75.5 | 0.4 | A45 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2019 | A55 | 74.2 | 0.4 | A40 | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2020 | A50 | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2020 | A45 | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2020 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2020 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2020 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2020 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2020 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| SON 2019 | A65 | 79.1 | 0.4 | A50 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2019 | A60 | 77.8 | 0.4 | A45 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2019 | A55 | 75.9 | 0.4 | A40 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2020 | A50 | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2020 | A45 | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2020 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2020 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2020 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2020 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2020 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2020 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| SON 2019 | A65 | 81.4 | 0.4 | A50 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2019 | A60 | 80.0 | 0.4 | A45 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2019 | A50 | 77.7 | 0.5 | A40 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2020 | A45 | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2020 | A40 | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2020 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2020 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2020 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2020 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2020 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| SON 2019 | A65 | 79.1 | 0.3 | A50 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2019 | A60 | 77.8 | 0.3 | A45 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2019 | A50 | 75.7 | 0.3 | A40 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2020 | A45 | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2020 | A40 | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2020 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2020 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2020 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2020 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2020 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2020 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2020 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2020 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Sep 19, 2019. |
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