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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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    6.5mn JFM 2022
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    0.5mn Jul 2021


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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2021

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from negative one-half degree Celsius to positive one-half degree Celsius were observed over the Hawaiian islands during the previous week.

For January through May 2021, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 19.68 inches (124 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 9.45 inches (125 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 14.80 Inches (156 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 69.56 Inches (134 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal monthly mean air temperatures over the northwestern Hawaiian Islands (Honolulu and Lihue) and equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below normal temperatures for the southeastern Hawaiian islands (Hilo and Kahului) in July 2021. Below normal precipitation is predicted by most dynamical and statistical models for the Hawaiian Islands during July 2021.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo EC 76.2 0.4 B45 7.1 9.5 11.4
Kahului EC 79.2 0.4 B45 0.2 0.4 0.5
Honolulu A45 81.4 0.5 B40 0.2 0.4 0.5
Lihue A55 79.2 0.4 B40 1.5 1.7 1.9

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2021 - JAS 2022

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions are present across the Pacific Ocean, with near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive in the western Pacific and closer to the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but decreased slightly in magnitude, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies remain in a small region of the central Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral persisted and is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer with a 66 percent probability for July-September 2021.

Enhanced probabilities for below normal temperatures are indicated over Hilo from JAS 2021 to SON 2021, while equal chances (EC) for above, near, or below normal temperatures are forecast over Kahului and Honolulu, during this period. Above normal temperatures are forecast for Lihue beginning in ASO 2021 and continuing for several seasons. Above normal temperatures are likely for northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Lihue, Honolulu and Kahului, from OND 2021 to DJF 2022. The predicted pattern of advancing above normal temperatures across the northwestern Hawaiian Islands and near to below normal temperatures for southeastern islands is supported by most dynamical and statistical forecast tools, including dynamical models of the NMME and the constructed analog statistical model.

Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are likely over the Hawaiian Islands from summer (JAS) 2021 to OND 2021, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models over the Hawaiian Islands in NDJ 2021 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated. Drier conditions across the Hawaiian Islands in early leads are consistent with near to below normal SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, current ENSO-neutral conditions and increasing chances of La Nina conditions by winter.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2021 B40 76.1 0.4 B50 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2021 B45 76.4 0.4 B60 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2021 B40 76.2 0.4 B50 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2021 EC 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2021 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2022 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2022 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2022 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2022 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2022 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2022 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2022 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2022 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.4 B50 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2021 EC 79.4 0.4 B60 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2021 EC 79.1 0.4 B50 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2021 A40 77.8 0.4 B40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2021 A45 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2022 A40 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2022 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2022 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2022 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2022 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2022 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2022 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2021 EC 81.3 0.4 B50 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2021 EC 81.7 0.4 B60 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2021 EC 81.4 0.4 B50 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2021 A45 80.0 0.4 B40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2021 A50 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2022 A45 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2022 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2022 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2022 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2022 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2022 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2022 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2022 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2021 EC 79.0 0.3 B50 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2021 A40 79.4 0.3 B60 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2021 A45 79.1 0.3 B50 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2021 A50 77.8 0.3 B40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2021 A55 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2022 A45 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2022 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2022 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2022 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2022 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2022 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2022 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2022 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jul 15, 2021.


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