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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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More Outlooks
    0.5mn MAM 2020
    1.5mn AMJ 2020
    2.5mn MJJ 2020
    3.5mn JJA 2020
    4.5mn JAS 2020
    5.5mn ASO 2020
    6.5mn SON 2020
    7.5mn OND 2020
    8.5mn NDJ 2020
    9.5mn DJF 2020
   10.5mn JFM 2021
   11.5mn FMA 2021
   12.5mn MAM 2021
    0.5mn Mar 2020


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
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   SMT
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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2020

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are about positive one half to one degree Celsius surrounding the Hawaiian Islands during the previous week.

For January 2020, rainfall total accumulations were:

- Lihue Airport 1.60 inches (43 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 1.13 inches (49 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 2.86 Inches (100 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 15.89 Inches (172 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above normal SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands for March 2020. Model guidance from the NMME indicates anomalies of one-half to one degree Celsius above normal are expected to continue. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in March 2020. Most dynamical models from the NMME predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during March 2020.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A65 72.0 0.6 A45 5.7 10.8 15.2
Kahului A65 72.9 0.5 A45 1.4 1.9 2.9
Honolulu A65 74.7 0.5 A45 0.6 0.8 1.9
Lihue A65 72.7 0.6 A45 1.9 2.6 3.6

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2020 - MAM 2021

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a discussion of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to above average across the Pacific Ocean and positive SST anomalies are largest near the Date Line, exceeding +1.0 degree Celsius. Subsurface temperature anomalies remain positive across most of the Pacific Ocean near the surface, reaching depths greater than 150 meters near the Date Line, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies have emerged below 100 meters depth in the western Pacific. Tropical convection is suppressed over the Maritime Continent and is enhanced near the Date Line. ENSO-neutral is likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 with probabilities about 60 percent and through summer 2020 with probabilities about 50 percent.

Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from MAM 2020 to JAS 2020, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through ASO 2020. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in SON 2020 and thereafter.

Most dynamical models and probability forecasts from the NMME predict above normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands in MAM 2020. Dynamical models from the NMME have mixed signals in AMJ 2020 through JJA 2020, while predicting above normal precipitation over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands in JAS 2020. The Constructed Analog (CA) predicts persistent above normal precipitation over parts of the Hawaiian Islands for MAM 2020 through JAS 2020, with stronger signals over the southeastern islands. Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are indicated in the outlook from MAM 2020 to JAS 2020 for the southeastern islands and from MAM 2020 to MJJ 2020 for the northwestern islands. There is considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecast among available dynamical and statistical tools over Hilo and Kahului in ASO 2020 and longer leads and over Honolulu and Lihue in JJA 2020 and longer leads, so equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2020 A65 72.0 0.5 A45 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2020 A60 72.9 0.5 A45 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2020 A55 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2020 A50 75.2 0.4 A40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2020 A45 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2020 A40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2020 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2020 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2020 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2021 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2021 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2021 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2021 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2020 A65 73.0 0.4 A45 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2020 A60 74.3 0.5 A45 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2020 A55 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2020 A50 77.7 0.4 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2020 A45 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2020 A40 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2020 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2020 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2020 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2021 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2021 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2021 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2021 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2020 A65 74.8 0.4 A45 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2020 A60 76.3 0.4 A40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2020 A55 78.2 0.4 A40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2020 A50 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2020 A45 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2020 A40 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2020 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2020 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2020 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2021 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2021 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2021 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2021 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2020 A65 72.8 0.5 A45 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2020 A60 74.2 0.5 A40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2020 A55 76.0 0.5 A40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2020 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2020 A45 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2020 A40 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2020 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2020 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2020 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2021 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2021 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2021 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2021 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0

FORECASTER: Dan Collins

Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set next month, on Thu Mar 19, 2020.


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