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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2020
Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from less than positive one-half degree to near one degree Celsius were observed in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands during the last several weeks.
For January through June 2020, rainfall total accumulations were:
- Lihue Airport 24.43 inches (140 percent of normal)
- Honolulu Airport 8.98 inches (115 percent of normal)
- Kahului Airport 10.12 Inches (104 percent of normal)
- Hilo Airport 65.12 Inches (110 percent of normal)
The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through August 2020. This elevates the chances of above normal monthly mean air temperatures for Hawaii in August 2020. Nearly all dynamical models from the NMME suite indicate an increased chance of below normal precipitation over the Hawaiian Islands during August 2020. |
| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| Hilo | A55 | 76.6 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 10.3 |
| Kahului | A60 | 79.8 | 0.4 | | B40 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Honolulu | A65 | 82.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Lihue | A70 | 79.7 | 0.4 | | B40 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2020 - ASO 2021 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook, including details on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean. The observed tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean conditions currently are consistent with ENSO-neutral, with near to below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above average SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have diminished and are now confined to the eastern Pacific Ocean, while positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist in the far western Pacific. Tropical convection is suppressed from the Date Line westward across the west-central Pacific but slightly enhanced over the Maritime Continent. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly in the western and east-central tropical Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific. The tropical atmosphere and ocean state is consistent overall with ENSO-neutral. An ENSO-neutral state is likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with a probability of about 55 percent. The probability of La Nina increases during autumn 2020 and winter 2020-21 to greater than 50%, while the probability of ENSO-neutral persistence decreases.
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated across the Hawaiian Islands in the outlook from ASO 2020 to JFM 2021, due to predicted persistence of above normal sea surface temperatures in the NMME dynamical model forecasts through DJF 2020-21, and supported by statistical models including the Constructed Analog (CA) and Optimum Climate Normals (OCN) through JFM 2021. The signal weakens at longer leads, therefore Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii in FMA 2021 and thereafter.
The consolidation of dynamical and statistical tools indicates an enhanced likelihood of below normal precipitation from ASO 2020 through OND 2020 over all Hawaiian Islands, though some statistical tools such as the CA indicate above normal is more likely for Hawaii during the beginning of this period. A statistical forecast combining the impacts of the ENSO state and decadal trends predicts likely below normal precipitation through OND 2020, as below normal precipitation in late summer and early autumn is consistent with negative SST anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the potential development of La Nina in autumn. An increased likelihood of above normal precipitation in winter is consistent with La Nina. However there remains significant uncertainty in the development and persistence of La Nina by winter. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts among available dynamical and statistical tools over the Hawaiian Islands in NDJ 2020 and longer leads, equal chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated in later seasons. |
| Hilo |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2020 | A60 | 76.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2020 | A55 | 76.2 | 0.4 | B45 | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2020 | A55 | 75.5 | 0.4 | B40 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2020 | A50 | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2021 | A45 | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2021 | A40 | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2021 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2021 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2021 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2021 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2021 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2021 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| Kahului |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2020 | A65 | 79.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2020 | A60 | 79.1 | 0.4 | B45 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2020 | A55 | 77.8 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2020 | A50 | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2021 | A45 | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2021 | A40 | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2021 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2021 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2021 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2021 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2021 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2021 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Honolulu |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2020 | A65 | 81.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2020 | A60 | 81.4 | 0.4 | B45 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2020 | A55 | 80.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2020 | A50 | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2021 | A45 | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2021 | A40 | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2021 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2021 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2021 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2021 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2021 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2021 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Lihue |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| ASO 2020 | A70 | 79.4 | 0.3 | B40 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2020 | A65 | 79.1 | 0.3 | B45 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2020 | A55 | 77.8 | 0.3 | B40 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2020 | A50 | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2021 | A45 | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2021 | A40 | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2021 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2021 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2021 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2021 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2021 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2021 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2021 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
FORECASTER: Dan Collins Anomalies are based on the 1981-2010 means.
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Aug 20, 2020. |
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