Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
The July-August-September (JAS) 2022 temperature outlook favors above-normal 
seasonal mean temperatures across a majority of the U.S. The largest 
probabilities (more than 60 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast 
for New England and parts of the West. The JJA precipitation outlook depicts 
elevated probabilities of above-normal precipitation for parts of the East, 
Southwest, and Alaska, while below-normal precipitation is more likely across 
much of the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, upper Mississippi Valley, and the 
northern to central Rockies. Equal chances (EC) are forecast in areas where the 
likelihood of seasonal mean temperatures or seasonal accumulated precipitation 
amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
A La Niña advisory remains in effect and equatorial sea surface temperatures 
(SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and the 
tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with a La Niña. La Niña is favored to 
continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (52% chance in JAS 2022), with 
slightly increased probabilities throughout the Northern Hemisphere fall and 
early winter 2022 (58-59% chance). 
 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
Oceanic and atmospheric observations across the equatorial Pacific remain 
consistent with La Niña conditions. The observed weekly SSTs, centered on June 
8, feature negative anomalies throughout the central and eastern equatorial 
Pacific with the largest negative anomalies of -0.5 to -1 degrees C generally 
from the Date Line to 120W. These negative anomalies have weakened since early 
May. Subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged between 180 to 100 degrees W 
and 0-300m depth) also weakened during the spring with values approaching zero. 
From May 13 to June 7, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind 
anomalies persisted. Suppressed convection continued over the western and 
central Pacific, while convection was near average or slightly enhanced across 
parts of Indonesia. 
 
Multiple atmosphere Kelvin waves crossed the global tropics throughout this 
past spring. More recently during late May into the beginning of June, the 
Real-time Multivariate Madden Julian Oscillation (RMM) index depicted a slower 
moving and developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. However, the 
propagation of this MJO stalled over the Western Hemisphere during early to 
mid-June and the amplitude of the RMM index decreased. As of June 15, GEFS and 
ECMWF ensemble spread is very large on the MJO evolution during the next two 
weeks. Therefore, forecast confidence is low on how much, if any, the MJO 
modulates tropical cyclone development across the East Pacific and Atlantic 
basins during the latter half of June and heading into July. 
 
Positive SST anomalies, surrounding Alaska, have increased in magnitude since 
late May with the largest anomalies (more than +2.5 degrees C) observed along 
coastal southwestern Alaska. Following a prolonged period of anomalously cold 
SSTs along the West Coast, SSTs are now near average. Positive SST anomalies 
continued across the northern Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters from the 
Mid-Atlantic northward to New England. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The CPC SST Consolidation for the Nino 3.4 region indicates a slight decrease 
in the magnitude of the negative anomalies this summer, followed by a decline 
to between -0.5 and -1 degrees C during the fall season. The spread among the 
statistical tools is large this fall, with outcomes ranging from slightly 
positive (CCA) to a moderate strength La Niña (constructed analog). The NMME 
maintains a La Niña with negative anomalies at or below -0.5 degrees C 
persisting through DJF 2022-2023. Since the observed oceanic and atmospheric 
anomalies have weakened recently, uncertainty is high on whether La Niña may 
transition to ENSO-neutral conditions this summer. As of early June, the 
CPC/IRI consensus forecast calls for a 52 percent chance of La Niña during 
July-August-September before slightly increasing to around 58 percent through 
the fall and early winter. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Tools used for the seasonal outlooks included dynamical model guidance such as 
the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Calibration, Bridging, and 
Merging (CBaM) version of the NMME, and the Copernicus International 
Multi-Model Ensemble (C3S). Current soil moisture conditions played a role in 
the JAS temperature outlook, primarily across the Great Plains and Southwest. 
The consolidation tool, which includes NMME input and various statistical 
tools, was used more extensively beyond lead 5, NDJ. La Niña composites were 
considered through next winter since La Niña is the most likely outcome. 
Decadal trends  in temperature and precipitation were a factor at all time leads 
but relied upon the most during the spring and summer 2023. 
 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2022 TO JAS 2023 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
A broad coverage of above-normal temperatures is favored throughout much of the 
U.S. during JAS, but probabilities vary regionally. Along the East Coast, 
above-normal temperatures are most likely for New England due to: excellent 
agreement among tools including the inputs to the NMME, decadal temperature 
trends, and large positive SST anomalies nearby. Due to recent heavy rainfall, 
anomalously wet soil moisture is now present across southeast Kansas, northeast 
Oklahoma, and the Ozarks region. This was a contributing factor to a weakness 
in the probabilities for above normal temperatures for parts of the central 
CONUS along with the latest calibrated NMME and neutral decadal trends  during 
mid to late summer. The NMME and C3S support large probabilities for above 
normal temperatures, centered across Utah and western Colorado, with 
probabilities decreasing to the south which is consistent with the JAS 
precipitation outlook slightly favoring an enhanced Monsoon. EC is forecast for 
parts of the northern Great Plains, based on anomalously wet soil moisture and 
the NMME forecast. EC is also forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest where 
the July outlook is slightly favoring below-normal temperatures and is 
supported by the calibrated NMME. Above-normal temperatures are slightly 
favored for Mainland Alaska, although forecast confidence is relatively low 
given weak signals  among the tools and lack of skill recently. 
 
Beginning in the fall 2022 and through winter 2022-2023, minor changes were 
made to the previous outlook, released on May 19. These modifications were 
based on the latest dynamical model solutions and La Niña composites. During 
the spring and summer 2023, the temperature outlook is generally consistent 
with decadal trends . 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
For a majority of the CONUS and Alaska during JAS, either EC or limited 
probabilities (below 40 percent) for below or above-normal precipitation are 
forecast due to very weak signals  in the calibrated NMME. Based on a consensus 
between the latest dynamical models  and La Niña precipitation composites, 
below-normal precipitation is most likely for the north-central Rockies, much 
of the Great Plains, and the western Corn Belt. The week-2 dynamical models , 
which cover the last week of June, are consistent that low to mid-level 
moisture is likely to increase across the Southwest due to southeasterly flow. 
Week 3-4 dynamical models , valid for the first half of July, depict a favorable 
position of the 500-hPa ridge axis for enhanced monsoon rainfall. Based on 
these factors for a robust start to the Monsoon, the July precipitation 
outlook, and the typical inverse relationship in Monsoon rainfall following a 
dry winter, above-normal precipitation is favored for the Desert Southwest. The 
favored area of wetness along parts of the East and Gulf Coasts is consistent 
with the outlook for a 65 percent chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane 
season. Also, decadal trends  support the largest probabilities for above-normal 
precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Many of the 
dynamical model tools support a small tilt for above-normal precipitation 
across the central interior of Mainland Alaska. Since probabilities for La Niña 
conditions are near 60 percent during the late fall and winter, a slightly 
favored area for below-normal precipitation was added to the southern tier of 
the CONUS. During the spring and summer 2023, the precipitation outlooks are 
based mostly on decadal trends . 
 
FORECASTER: Brad Pugh 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Jul 21 2022 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$