Tropical Highlights
MAY 2008
Forecast Forum
Oceanic
indices indicated a further weakening of La Niņa during May 2008 (Table
T2). Negative
SST anomalies weakened in the central and east-central equatorial
Pacific
Ocean
, while
positive SST anomalies were confined to parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.
T18). The latest weekly Niņo-3.4 index was -0.6°C, and the Niņo-4 index was -0.8°C.
Accompanying
these surface conditions, the oceanic thermocline was near normal across the
equatorial Pacific east of 150°W during May, and continued to deepen west of
the Date Line (Fig. T16).
Consistent with this structure, sub-surface temperatures at thermocline depth
were above average (+1°C to +4°C) across the eastern equatorial Pacific and in
the area west of the Date Line (Fig. T17).
Enhanced
low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds continued across the
central equatorial Pacific during May (Figs.
T20, T21, Table T1). Convection remained suppressed throughout the
central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over the far western Pacific (Figs.
T25, E3).
Collectively,
these atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to indicate an ongoing, but
gradually weakening, La Niņa.
For
the latest status of the ENSO cycle see the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
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