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Canonical Correlation Forecast for Nino 3.4 Region: Historical
MAY 2024
FIGURE F1.
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly prediction for the central Pacific (5N to 5S, 120W to 170W (Barnston and Ropelewski, 1992,i J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345)). The three plots on the left are, from top to bottom, the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month lead seasonal forecasts from the past 12 months plus the current month. The triangles in each plot are the observed SST anomaly through the latest available season. The lines at the mid-points of the forecast error bars represent the real-time CCA predictions based on the anomalies of quasi-global sea level pressure, the anomalies of tropical Pacific SST, and heat content of the upper 300 meters of the near-equator tropical Pacific (10S to 10N). The vertical lines represent the two standard deviation error bars for the predictions based on past performance. The three plots on the right are skill values for the corresponding seasons, from the correlations of the predicted and observed SST in the prior 10 years of simulated real-time forecasts. Skill values show a clear annual cycle and are inversely proportional to the length of the error bars depicted in the forecast time series.
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