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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region

Cecile Penland & Ludmila Matrosova, NOAA/CDC

AUGUST 2010

FIGURE F10.  Predictions of SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region (blue line) for leads of three months (top) to 12 months (bottom), from the Linear Inverse Modeling technique of Penland and Magorian (1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067-1076). Observed SST anomalies are indicated by the red line. Anomalies are calculated relative to the 1951-2000 climatology and are projected onto 20 leading EOFs. The Nino 3.4 region spans the east-central equatorial Pacific between 5N-5S, 170W-120W.