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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts for Nino 3.4 Region

Cecile Penland, NOAA/CDC

AUGUST 2013

FIGURE F10.  Predictions of Nino 3.4 SSTA (blue solid line) and verification (solid red line). The Nino 3.44 Index was calculated in the area 6N-6S, 170W-120W. The 1981-2010 climatology was sub- tracted from ERSST data between 1950 and 2010, after which they were projected onto 20 EOFs containing 90% of the variance. Significant 1950-2010 trends were subtracted from the corresponding PCs, the forecast was made on the detrended anomalies, after which the trend was added to the forecast. The dotted lines indicate the one standard deviation confidence interval for the forecasts based on a perfect adherence to assumptions.