Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status:  Not Active

 

Outlook:

 

ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14.

 

Discussion:  

 

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August 2013, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across much of the equatorial Pacific, with below-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Fig. T18).   Consistent with this pattern, the monthly Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were between 0.0 and -0.3°C, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were cooler than -0.5°C (Table T2).  The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near to slightly above average during August due to the persistence of above-average sub-surface temperatures across much of the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. T17).  The low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21). Convection continued to be enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T25).  Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.  

Most model forecasts continue to predict ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). For the next several seasons, the average of the statistical model forecasts is near -0.5°C, while the average of the dynamical model forecasts is near or just above 0.0°C.  Similar to last month, the forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through December – February 2013-14.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).