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Climate Prediction Center

Drought Indices
   • Standardized
     Precipitation
     Index (SPI)

       • Monitoring
          • U.S.
          • Global
       • Prediction
          • Seasonal
          • Subseasonal

   • Palmer Drought
     Severity
     Indices (PDSI)


   • Crop Moisture
     Indices


   • Soil Moisture
     Percentiles
     (based on NLDAS)


   • Standardized
     Runoff Index
     (based on NLDAS)


   • Integrated
     Drought Index
     (based on NLDAS)


Precipitation

Accumulated Precipitation

Surface Temperature
   • Maximum/Minimum
   • Mean

Surface Hydrology
(based on NLDAS)

   • Total Soil Moisture
   • Total SM Change
   • MOSAIC Soil
     Moisture Profile

   • NOAH Soil
     Moisture Profile

   • NOAH Soil T Profile
   • Evaporation
   • E-P
   • Runoff
   • Snow Cover
   • Snow Water Equiv.

Flash Drought
   • Monitoring
   • Development
   • Tendency Forecast

Probabilistic Drought Forecasts
   • Current Month
   • One-Month Lead
   • Two-Month Lead
   • Three-Month Lead

Soil Moisture
     (based on leaky
       bucket model)


Topsoil Moisture
     (based on USDA)


Alaska Region drought information
   • Accumulated Precipitation
   • SPI monitor
   • SPI prediction

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   Our Mission
   Who We Are

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   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

 
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Probabilistic Drought Forecast


The Probabilistic drought forecast is based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. The hindcast and real-time prediction NMME data is readily available and in graphical format from CPC . The NMME forecast are currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. The probabilistic SPIx forecasts is performed in real time operationally and results presented at the drought briefing.


Objective Monthly Outlook




Objective Seasonal Outlook







NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
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College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: Aug 19, 2021
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