Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for September, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for September, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on August 18, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions.



During August, drought conditions are nearly unchanged across much of the Western Region. Looking ahead into September, it is a climatological dry time of year for the Northwest region and California and also a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge. The WPC forecasts 1 to 4 inches of precipitation over parts of the Pacific Northwest coast region during the next 7 days and the CPC outlooks favor above-normal precipitation across much of the West region. Drought relief is likely for the coastal region of the Pacific Northwest. Persistence is likely across much of Nevada, Idaho, Montana, and eastern portions of Oregon and Washington. Conversely, further inland, enhanced monsoon moisture driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures favors widespread drought reduction across the Great Basin, Central Rockies, much of the Four Corners region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West Region.



During August, 1 to 3 class drought degradation was noticed across the northern and southern High Plains regions due to precipitation deficit and excessive heat which maintained high evapotranspirative demand. Conversely, 1 to 3 class improvements were observed in Nebraska and nearby areas due to above normal rainfall received. Looking ahead at September, much of the High Plains region is transitioning into its climatologically dry season. The CPC monthly outlook shows an absence of significant wet signals. Therefore, drought persistence is expected to continue across the Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming, eastern Colorado, and portions of Nebraska and Kansas, with potential development over parts of Kansas. Conversely, drought relief is forecast across parts of southwestern Wyoming and western Colorado due to predicted enhancement of monsoon moisture flows driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.



Precipitation deficits over the past month coupled with excessive heat maintained high evapotranspirative demand which led to significant (D1 to D4) drought expansion across the Southern Region, increasing coverage quickly from an early-August low of roughly 24 percent to above 62 percent by August 25. Looking ahead into September, all ranges of the CPC outlooks favor above normal temperatures across the South but show an absence of wet signals across much of the region. Consequently, existing drought is expected to persist with potential new development across parts of these anomalously dry areas.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



During the early summer, drought conditions only covered a small percentage of the Midwest region: under 9 percent as of July 7. However, the region experienced drought expansion (with 1 to 3 class degradation) across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where dryness and periodic hot temperatures have driven wildfire development during the past month. As of August 25, above 26 percent of the region was under moderate to extreme drought conditions. Conversely, periodic storm systems brought widespread heavy precipitation across the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley and resulted in flash floods and much above normal soil moisture levels over the region. Looking ahead into the next month, the CPC outlooks show absence of wet signals coupled with above normal temperatures across the region. Persistence of the existing drought is the most likely outcome with potential development across parts of Missouri and Illinois.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



Drought conditions continued to ease across the Southeast over the past month due to periodic beneficial rainfall which brought 1- to 4-class improvement over the region, especially across much of North Carolina and Virginia. The WPC forecasts 1 to 5 inches of precipitation across much of Florida and parts of the coastal regions during the next 1-7 days. The CPC extended range and monthly outlooks all favor near to above normal precipitation across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Continued drought reduction is the most likely outcome across the region. However, all ranges outlooks show absence of wet signals and above normal temperatures across much of the central and northern Northeast region in September. Persistence is anticipated for the existing drought across these regions.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Over the past month, steady drought relief (a 1- to 2-class improvement) was observed across most of the Northeast. The primary exception was Maine, where drought was briefly eliminated before redeveloping with a 1- to 2-class degradation.



During the first week of September, the WPC outlook shows 1 to 5 inches of widespread rainfall overspreading much of the region, and the CPC 8-14 days outlook continues to favor near normal rainfall across the region. The CPC monthly favors above normal precipitation across much of the region. Continued drought reduction is favored across portions of the Northeast region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.



Two small areas of moderate drought in east-central mainland Alaska and southeast Alaska developed recently. September is a climatological wet time of year and the CPC Precipitation outlooks favor near to above normal precipitation across mainland Alaska region during the period. Removal of moderate drought over mainland Alaska is anticipated. Over the southeast Alaska region, the precipitation outlook shows a lack of wet signals during the period. Persistence is the most likely outcome for the small drought area.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



No drought conditions are currently present in Hawaii, though abnormal dryness continues across parts of the Hawaiian Islands. Ongoing El Niño conditions during the period favor enhancement of precipitation across the Hawaiian Islands. The CPC monthly precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation across the Islands during September. Drought development is not anticipated across Hawaii during the period.



Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.



Drought has been steadily expanding and intensifying across Puerto Rico, due to a strong suppressed convective signal across the Caribbean as El Niñ\;o conditions intensified in the Pacific basin. Given the expected strength and persistence of El Niño, combined with reduced potential for tropical cyclone activity, meaningful drought relief is unlikely. Consequently, continued drought persistence and expansion remain the most probable outcome.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, drought conditions remain in place across the US Virgin Islands due to a stationary suppressed convective envelope over the Caribbean region. Therefore, drought persistence is the most likely outcome through the end of September.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: September 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT