Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for August, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for August, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on July 28, 2026 was used for initial drought conditions. El Niño conditions are present and intensifying over the equatorial Pacific, and are favored to play a role in the climate anomaly patterns across the US.



Improvements during July across central Idaho, portions of Montana, northern Nevada, and parts of the Four Corners states were mostly offset by slow expansion across the Pacific coast states, resulting in overall drought coverage in the West region that is almost the same as it was a month ago. August is a dry time of year for the Northwest and California, providing little opportunity for substantial drought reduction. Most major reservoirs remain in good shape for the time of year, which should stave off significant drought expansion. An August outlook favoring above-normal temperatures, however, indicates a potential for exacerbated impacts from drying soils and increased irrigation demands. Therefore, slow drought expansion remains possible, especially across the Northwest, where the revised August outlook continues to favor below-normal precipitation. Further inland, dynamical model forecasts continue to depict enhanced monsoonal convection, which is consistent with El Niño composites, especially in the western monsoon region which can benefit from tropical cyclone related Gulf moisture surges. The monsoon signal is most pronounced across Arizona and New Mexico, which receive a significant portion of their annual rainfall during the monsoon season. Therefore, continued drought reduction is favored for Arizona, far western New Mexico, and northward through the Great Basin and central Rockies.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the West Region.



Drought conditions expanded across the High Plains region during July, as periods of excessive heat maintained high evapotranspirative demand which prompted drought development in areas that received insufficient rainfall. Drought expansion was most pronounced across the northern Plains, where temperatures exceeded 100 degrees on multiple days across the Dakotas. August remains a wet time of year across the Plains, where ample moisture from the Gulf of America can still penetrate far to the north, allowing for the development of organized convective events. A near-term storm system has been producing locally heavy rainfall across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska, which may prompt some short term improvements. Elsewhere, however, forecasts favor a general pattern of persistence and expansion. During the first week of August, little to no rainfall is forecast across the High Plains Region, while hot temperatures are forecast to continue. A dry signal persists into the 8-14 day period across Kansas and Nebraska, with above-normal temperatures favored to continue into the Weeks 3-4 period. Based on these outlooks, rapid drought expansion is possible across North Dakota western South Dakota, and parts of Kansas that have been trending drier in the last 60 days. Persistence is favored elsewhere, outside of the small regions that received heavy rainfall in the past day.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.



Frequent periods of rainfall supported continued drought reduction across the South region during July, though drier conditions prompted a rapid return to drought conditions across far southern Texas, and smaller areas of degradation across North Texas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi's Gulf coast. Despite the recent drought reductions, much of the region remains vulnerable to rapid drought development during any periods of hot, dry weather. Temperatures throughout August are favored to be above-normal, maintaining high evapotranspirative demand. During the first week of the month, little rainfall is forecast west of the Mississippi River. Below-average precipitation is also favored during days 8-14. A dry signal is also maintained during the Weeks 3-4 period along the Gulf Coast and portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Based on these outlooks, rapid drought development is forecast for Red River Valley of Texas, all of Oklahoma not currently in drought, western Arkansas, and far northwestern Louisiana. These areas have had short term precipitation deficits increase over the last 30 to 60 days, with soil moisture content rapidly declining. In contrast, a wetter signal favors drought improvements across the small drought areas remaining in Tennessee.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



Following a reduction in drought conditions across the Midwest Region during June, periods of dryness and much above-normal temperatures caused drought to expand in July, especially across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Although current drought coverage is lower across the Midwest compared to the other Regional Climate Center regions, much of the area is highly vulnerable to rapid drought development, with soil moisture in particular becoming very low in the last few weeks. In the near term, a storm system is bringing widespread heavy precipitation to the central Corn Belt, with eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and Illinois receiving heavy precipitation already. This rainfall should be sufficient to stave off further degradation across the central and eastern Corn Belt; however, areas of the upper Midwest and western Corn Belt that missed out on this near term precipitation still face a high risk of drought expansion. Light precipitation across the upper Midwest and Iowa during the first week of August is unlikely to offset evapotranspirative loss. Therefore, rapid drought expansion is favored for parts of Wisconsin, western Iowa, and Minnesota that missed out on recent rainfall. These areas of development are often quite near to other areas that did receive heavier rainfall in the past day, where drought improvement or removal is indicated on the outlook.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.



Drought conditions continued to ease across the Southeast, though at a slower rate than the improvements that occurred earlier in the Summer. Seasonal convection has been near to above average across the upper South, but below-normal rainfall was observed across the Gulf Coast states and Florida. This meager convection, coupled with above-normal temperatures has made much of the region somewhat more vulnerable to drought re-development, though many areas still have large 90-day precipitation surpluses. Wet conditions are favored during the first week of August, with near normal conditions during days 8-14. The revised August monthly outlook removed the slight dry signal across the Southeast, with equal chances now maintained across the entire region. Based on the shorter term wetness and a wet climatology, continued drought reduction is the most likely outcome across the Southeast.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.



Across the Northeast, drying conditions across northern New England during July contrasted with much above-normal rainfall across southern New England and the lower Hudson Valley, with much of this enhanced rainfall coming from a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system near the end of the month. Precipitation was more hit and miss across the mid-Atlantic region, with slight improvements to the drought depiction in areas that received heavy rainfall. During the first week of August, widespread precipitation is forecast to overspread the region, bringing additional relief, even to northern New England, though northern Maine may receive more meager accumulation. Near to above-normal rainfall is forecast during Week-2, and the revised August outlook favors near to above-normal precipitation as well. Based on these outlooks and a typically generous rainfall climatology during August, gradual drought reduction is favored. Drought improvements may be slower to occur across portions of the mid-Atlantic, where groundwater concerns remain.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast Region.



No drought is currently in place across Alaska. The revised monthly outlook favors above-average precipitation in western Alaska, where the remaining areas designated abnormally dry (D0) on the latest US Drought Monitor are situated. Therefore, no new drought development is forecast during August.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



No drought conditions are in place across Hawaii, though abnormal dryness (D0) continues across parts of the Big Island and Maui. El Niño conditions during the late summer favor near to above-normal precipitation across the Hawaiian Islands, with a more pronounced dry signal setting up during the wet season beginning in December or January. Therefore, drought development is not anticipated through the end of August.



Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.



Drought has been steadily expanding and intensifying across Puerto Rico, due to a strong suppressed convective signal across the Caribbean as El Niño conditions intensified in the Pacific basin. Little change to this overall pattern is favored during August, and a strengthening MJO signal across the West Pacific may strengthen the overall suppressed signal. Therefore, drought persistence is favored, with continued drought expansion into areas already abnormally dry.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



Similar to Puerto Rico, drought conditions remain in place across the US Virgin Islands due to a stationary suppressed convective envelope over the Caribbean region. There is a reduced potential for tropical cyclone activity or other broad scale convection that could substantially reduce the drought conditions now in place. Therefore, drought persistence is the most likely outcome through the end of August.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: August 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT