Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for July, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on June 25, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



During the past 30 days, the Western region has experienced a combination of both degradation and improvement of abnormal dryness (D0) and drought (D1-D2), as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), with 2 class changes observed in parts of Washington, Montana and New Mexico. Looking forward to July, warmer than normal conditions are broadly favored throughout July and precipitation outlooks are favoring drier than normal conditions, particularly across portions of the Great Basin and much of the northern Intermountain West. Persistence is forecast for the existing drought throughout the Western Region with drought development likely across much of antecedent dryness areas in northern portions of the West region. It is important to note that the onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM) typically occurs in late-June and early-July in the Southwest, which increases uncertainty in the July drought outlook for the Four Corners region due to the sporadic nature of thunderstorm activity during the monsoon season. Persistence is favored for the existing drought across the Four Corners region due to lack of wet signals in precipitation outlook and warmer than normal conditions favored across the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Western Region.



During the past month, the High Plains region also has experienced a combination of both degradation and improvement of abnormal dryness (D0) and drought (D1-D3). Looking forward to July, persistence is favored for the existing drought across the region, with the potential for additional development in western Dakotas, much of Wyoming and the southeastern portions of the High Plains region, given warmer and drier conditions favored across much of the High Plains during much of July. Additionally, in the climatological context, much of the High Plains region is still in their wettest time of year. However, as July progresses, the drier climatology starts for these western-most areas.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the High Plains region.



During the past 30 days, widespread beneficial heavy rainfall was observed across parts of the southern region and resulted in 1-3 class drought improvement or removal across parts of southern Texas, western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. However, some areas missed meaningful rainfall and have seen 1-2 class degradations as well, such as parts of western Texas and north-central Oklahoma, and portions of the Tennessee Valley. Looking ahead to the July, persistence is forecast across the existing drought in the region by the end of July with potential drought development in parts of southern Texas and central-eastern Oklahoma, and portions of the Tennessee Valley, due to lack of wet signals in precipitation outlooks and antecedent dryness and warmer than normal hot temperatures are likely to exacerbate conditions by the end of July.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Southern Region.



During the late spring, the Midwest became drought-free for the first time since June 2020. However, drought redeveloped over several isolated areas with increasing anomalous dryness across parts of the region again, due to missing meaningful rainfall since the middle of June coupled with above normal temperatures. Looking ahead to July, drought persistence is favored across the Lower Midwest with increased risk l for a rapid onset of drought across the antecedent anomalous dry areas over parts of the Ohio Valley, given lack of wet signals in precipitation outlook, predicted warmer than normal temperatures and July being a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge over the Midwest region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Midwest Region.



In the Southeastern region, the existing drought was located in the central and southern Florida Peninsula in early June. However, larger rainfall deficits and warmer than normal temperatures during the latter portions of June were observed across much of the region, causing rapid drought redeveloped over Virginia, Carolinas and parts of Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida Peninsula in late June. Meanwhile, extremely heavy rainfall wiped out moderate to severe (D1-D2) drought in the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Looking forward to July, drought removal is likely for Florida and adjacent Georgia, due to favorable precipitation outlooks and also a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. However, for the remainder of the Southeastern Region, drought is favored to persist through the end of July, due to lack of wet signals in precipitation outlooks coupled with predicted above normal temperatures and a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge.



Forecast confidence is moderate in Florida and moderate to high elsewhere in the Southeast Region.



The southern portions of the Northeast region has experienced rapidly developing moderate drought recently due to a rainfall deficit coupled with above normal daily maximum temperatures resulting in deteriorating soil moisture and stream flows. Looking forward to the July, persistence is predicted for the existing drought across the region with the potential for rapid onset drought over antecedent anomalous dry in parts of the Delmarva and West Virginia, due to lack of wet signals in precipitation outlook coupled with forecast above normal hot temperatures and a favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Northeast Region.



Parts of eastern mainland Alaska and the southeastern Alaska Panhandle have experienced abnormal dryness (D0 as depicted in the USDM) for a while, as below normal snowpack and rainfall deficits accumulating over the past several months resulted in the antecedent dryness. A small drought has developed recently in eastern mainland Alaska. July forecasts favor above normal precipitation across much of Alaska coupled with July being a climatologically wet time of year for much of mainland Alaska. Additionally, cooler than normal conditions are likely through most of July, which should also help to curb any further exacerbation of ongoing abnormal dryness. Drought removal is favored by the end of July.



Forecast confidence is high in Alaska.



The Islands have experienced improvement of drought conditions over the past several weeks. However, there is still antecedent dryness in place and with below normal precipitation being favored for the month as a whole. In addition, July is a drier time of year, climatologically. Drought persistence is favored for parts of Maui and the Big Island in Hawaii, with the potential for drought to develop (redevelop in some cases) on the leeward sides of the Islands by the end of July.



Forecast confidence is moderate in Hawaii.



Puerto Rico is likely to remain drought-free by the end of July, given outlooks favoring above normal precipitation, and the antecedent wetness over the past month. Additionally, the potential for tropical activity at any point in the warm season coupled with July being a climatologically wet time of year favors no drought development.



Forecast confidence is high in Puerto Rico.



Similar reasons as its neighbor to the west, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free through the end of July.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT