Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for January, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on December 23, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



As of the US Drought Monitor valid on 30 December, just over 41 percent of the Western Region remained in drought conditions (D1 to D4), which is a reduction of just over 10 percent coverage from the end of November. Most of the improvements occurred across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and north-central Montana, as a parade of atmospheric river (AR) events brought copious moisture to the region. Soil moisture and streamflow values remain above average for most of the Northwest, and nearly the only indicator continuing to show a concern for water levels is snowpack coverage: snow water equivalent (SWE) values remain below normal for much of the Cascades. This below-normal snow cover is due to above-normal temperatures, which kept snow elevations higher than typical. Snowpack conditions have improved markedly across the northern Rockies, and a southward shift in the AR activity resulted in flooding rains across coastal California, and a boost to snowpack conditions along the Sierra Nevadas. Small areas of degradation occurred across far southern Oregon and northeastern California, and across portions of Utah, where precipitation was more scant overall. During the first week of January, widespread heavy precipitation is favored to continue across California in association with another AR event. By Week-2, ridging over the northeastern Pacific and a mean trough centered onshore is favored to bring an end to AR activity, but above-normal precipitation remains favored across the Southwest and northern Rockies. During Weeks 3-4, dynamical model forecasts indicate a persistent wet signal across the northern Rockies, and this area is highlighted with elevated chances for above-normal precipitation in the revised January precipitation outlook issued by CPC. Based on these outlooks, continued drought reductions are favored for the Northwest. Persistence is maintained for the southern half of the Western Region, where lower climatological precipitation values limit the potential for widespread reductions, and above-normal temperatures may continue to aggravate ongoing impacts.



Forecast confidence is moderate across the Western Region.



December is typically a cold, dry time of year across the High Plains, which limits the potential for substantive changes in drought depiction. December 2025 was an exception to this rule, due mostly to persistently much above-normal temperatures and a lack of snow cover, which caused drought degradations across eastern Wyoming, portions of Colorado, much of Nebraska, and southeastern Kansas. Modest improvements occurred across eastern South Dakota, where some snowpack has been established. Drought conditions (D1 or worse) cover nearly 24 percent of the High Plains region as of 30 December, a slight increase from the end of November. During the first week of January, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures may spark some additional drought degradation across the region, while a clipper system brings light snow to the eastern Dakotas. A wetter pattern is favored during Week-2, with a potential for expansion of snow coverage across the Plains; however, low climatological precipitation reduces the potential for substantive recharge this time of year. The revised monthly outlook maintains equal chances for below- above-, and near normal precipitation across the High Plains region. Therefore, persistence of existing drought areas and no additional development balancing a drier Week-1 and wetter Week-2 is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate across the High Plains Region.



Following some drought reduction across the Southern Region in early December, bringing coverage of D1 or worse to just under 35 percent by 9 December, dry, abnormally warm conditions caused a resurgence of drought conditions, particularly across Arkansas and Tennessee, with coverage increasing to nearly 52 percent of the region by 30 December. Farmers and ranchers, already impacted by an inability to plant a second hay crop near the end of the growing season, have reported low lake and pond levels, and an aggravation of impacts to soils and streams. January is typically a wet time of year for the eastern half of the Southern Region, with climatological precipitation decreasing towards the west. Climate anomalies associated with La Niña typically favor a drier pattern along the southern tier, with a favored storm track across the Mississippi Valley providing a potential for above-normal moisture to northern Arkansas and parts of Tennessee. The forecast for January, however, is highly variable and somewhat inconsistent with a typical La Niña response. During the first week of the month, mostly dry conditions are favored for the Southern Region, except across eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi, where light to moderate moisture may help prevent additional degradations. A wetter pattern is favored during Week-2, with model forecasts diverging during Week-3. The revised CPC January precipitation outlook maintains equal chances for below-, above-, and near-normal precipitation across most of the Southern Region, with below-normal precipitation favored for southern Texas. Given the dry start to the month, further degradations are possible, especially across New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. The potential switch to a wetter pattern adds uncertainty, however, and therefore drought development is indicated for eastern New Mexico and parts of Texas, where the impacts of dryness and abnormal warmth seem to be most pronounced in the guidance. Drought persistence is maintained for the remainder of the Southern Region.



Forecast confidence is low across the Southern Region.



Over the last 4 weeks, variable precipitation brought modest improvements to drought and abnormal dryness to much of the Midwest region, while some worsening of drought and abnormal dryness occurred across the central corn belt and the mid-Mississippi Valley. Overall, drought conditions now cover almost 36 percent of the Midwest. A typical La Niña response results in a favored storm track across the Ohio Valley, which would tend to boost moisture across the region; however, dynamical model forecasts for January have increasingly departed from a typical La Niña pattern, and show drier conditions across the Ohio Valley region and Great Lakes. During Week-1, dry conditions are favored for Iowa, and light snow is possible across the rest of the region. A wetter pattern is favored for Days 8-14, and the most recent dynamical model Weeks 3-4 guidance shows a drier pattern developing towards the end of the month. Overall, the precipitation outlook for the Midwest region is highly uncertain, and the revised monthly precipitation outlook for January maintains equal chances everywhere. Based on climatology and these outlooks, drought persistence is favored for the entire region. Across the upper-Midwest, frozen soils and streams make this a higher confidence forecast. Across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, uncertainty is high, as lake effect events or storm systems could reduce drought coverage, but confidence is too low to highlight any areas for improvements.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate across the Midwest Region.



Following a brief reduction in drought coverage due to a wet system crossing the Gulf Coast early in December, drought conditions have steadily worsened across the Southeast through the end of 2025. Nearly 75 percent of the Southeast region is experiencing D1 or worse drought as of 30 December, though there has been no return of exceptional (D4) drought to southern Georgia and northern Florida following the early month rains. During the first week of January, a storm system is forecast to bring moderate rainfall to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians of northern Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, with lighter precipitation across North Carolina and the immediate Gulf Coast. Drier conditions are favored for much of Virginia and the Florida Peninsula. During Week-2, above-normal precipitation is favored for almost the entire region, with near normal favored for the Florida Peninsula and the lowest probabilities for above across the coastal plain of the South Atlantic. In contrast to this wetter period during Week-2, the updated January precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation for Florida, the eastern Gulf Coast, and the South Atlantic coast. Therefore, while the wet Week-2 signal may help prevent a more widespread intensification of drought conditions, some development is favored for Florida and portions of the Carolinas. Drought persistence is maintained for the rest of the Southeast region.



Forecast confidence is moderate across the Southeast Region.



Drier conditions in December resulted in a slow return of some drought conditions to the Northeast following a very dry mid-Fall, especially in areas where groundwater and streamflows were slow to recover from drought. A more active pattern set up towards the end of December, resulting in boosted moisture, but recharge has been slow to occur, and primarily limited to areas west of the Appalachians. Drought conditions expanded across the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, and as of 30 December, just over 45 percent of the Northeast region is experiencing drought. Soils and streams have frozen across northern New England, limiting any potential for recharge. During Week-1, most of the Northeast is favored to receive light to moderate precipitation, with heavier accumulations occurring in narrow lake effect bands across western New York. This moisture may be sufficient to stave off further degradations, but is insufficient to bring widespread drought reduction. A slight tilt towards wetter conditions is favored for Week-2, with probabilities increasing west of the mountains. The updated January precipitation outlook maintains equal chances for the region. While a generous precipitation climatology usually provides opportunities for recharge, absent a clear wet signal, it is unlikely that near normal precipitation would substantially alter the current drought depiction. Therefore, drought persistence is the favored outcome for most of the region, with no areas favored for development. Removal is most likely for parts of New York and northwestern Pennsylvania, where lake effect and upslope snows may provide better opportunities for recharge.



Forecast confidence is moderate across the Northeast Region.



Areas of abnormal dryness (D0) have crept into portions of Alaska, due in part to a lack of snow cover causing transportation disruptions and soil freezing to lower than normal depths. Precipitation recently eased abnormal dryness across southwestern Alaska. During January, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern coasts of the state. Given the time of year, widespread drought introduction is unlikely to occur across Alaska, despite the current lack of snow cover.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Drought conditions have eased somewhat across Hawaii, especially the northwestern islands, while much of the Big Island remains in drought. The January outlook favors wet conditions across Hawaii, which should continue easing drought conditions across the western portion of the island chain. Drought persistence remains the most likely outcome for the Big Island, however, where the wet signal is a bit weaker and drought more intractable.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii.



Spotty precipitation across Puerto Rico eased some areas of abnormal dryness (D0), while abnormal dryness continues across just over 28 percent of the island territory. While not significantly above-normal, precipitation during January is favored to be sufficient to preclude any widespread drought introduction.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



Moderate drought (D1) was introduced to Saint Thomas and Saint John, while abnormal dryness continues across Saint Croix. During January, precipitation is favored to be sufficient to preclude further degradation, but will likely not be sufficient to fully ease drought conditions. Therefore, drought persistence is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST