Latest Monthly Assessment - During July, periods of storminess continued to improve drought conditions across the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and much of the East, though dryness returned to Maine. In contrast, below-average precipitation and periods of much above normal temperatures sparked drought expansion across the upper Midwest, portions of the High Plains, and far southern Texas. Across the West, drought improvements were noted across the northern Rockies, while small areas of degradation continued across the Pacific coast states. El Niño conditions continue to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific, which will increasingly impact the long term patterns across the US. Across the West, hot, seasonably dry conditions will provide little opportunity for drought reduction across northern California, Oregon, and Washington, with slight drought expansion possible across the Pacific Northwest. Further inland, an anticipated continuation of enhanced monsoonal convection favors drought reductions across the Great Basin, western Four Corners states, and the central Rockies. Across the Plains and upper Midwest, persistent heat will maintain high evapotranspirative demand, with drought development likely in areas where short and extended range forecasts show drier than average conditions. Within this same region, however, small scale improvements are likely across northern Nebraska, northeastern North Dakota, western Minnesota, and near the Wisconsin and Illinois border due to a potent storm system in the near term that is producing locally heavy rainfall. Across the East, a wet start to August favors drought reduction, though improvements may be more limited in areas where groundwater levels remain low.



No drought is currently in place nor forecast to develop across Hawaii and Alaska during August, with guidance favoring near to above-normal precipitation. Across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, drought persistence and expansion is favored due to a persistently suppressed convective regime driven in part by El Niño conditions.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: August 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion