Latest Monthly Assessment - During the month of December, a relentless series of atmospheric river events brought widespread copious precipitation to the Northwest, with heavy precipitation shifting southward across California and the Great Basin towards the end of the month. While above-normal temperatures limited the ability of this precipitation to significantly boost snowpack conditions across the Cascades, snowpack conditions did improve across the Sierra Nevadas and northern Rockies. This precipitation yielded widespread drought reductions across much of the Western Region. Further east, abnormal winter warmth and drier than normal conditions led to widespread degradation of drought and abnormal dryness across much of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians, while a wet frontal boundary early in the month led to some improvements across the immediate Gulf Coast. The persistent above-normal temperatures also sparked some unusual drought expansion across the central Plains. Across the Northeast, tenacious drought slowly returned across the mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Late month moisture helped arrest more significant degradation, but did not substantively reduce drought coverage, where impacts have been observed in slower to respond groundwater systems.



During January, an amplified and highly variable pattern is favored, with substantive differences in model solutions, even across different runs of the same model systems. Wet conditions are favored to continue across California through the first week of the month, with rains and mountain snows spreading eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies, while dry, abnormally warm conditions may spark additional degradations across the Plains. Drought development is favored for portions of Texas and eastern New Mexico. Further east, a dry start to the month may result in drought development for portions of Florida and the Carolinas. Elsewhere, variable forecasts and the potential for a wet second week of the month preclude a depiction of additional development across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valleys and the central Plains, though conditions may initially degrade in these regions prior to the onset of a wetter pattern. Persistence is maintained across the Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and much of the Northeast due to forecast uncertainty, the lack of a clear wet signal, and frozen soils and streams across the northern tier. One exception is upstate New York, where lake effect and upslope snows have built generous snow cover, and active precipitation is favored to continue into January.



No drought development is favored for Alaska or Puerto Rico during January. Across Hawaii, above-normal precipitation is favored, with the best chance for improvement occurring across the northwestern islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion