Latest Monthly Assessment - Hurricane Debby and its remnants tracked north Florida through western New England in early August, dropping heavy to excessive rains on much of the Eastern Seaboard, especially the South Altantic States. Some locations from eastern South Carolina through northeastern Florida recorded over a foot of rain from the storm, and amounts in excess of 5 inches were common northward through the western mid-Atlantic region, the Northeast, and the northern Appalachians. Lesser amounts were observed across the eastern mid-Atlantic region, eastern Maine, and some locations along the immediate Northeast Coast. The rainfall associated with Debby was responsible for significant relief in the areas of drought along the Eastern Seaboard and portions of the Appalachians. Drought Monitor classifications improved by 2 or more categories over parts of central Georgia and from South Carolina northward through southern Pennsylvania, with improvements of 3 or 4 classifications introduced over much of eastern South Carolina. The only area of deterioration along the Eastern Seaboard extended from eastern Maryland and Delaware into southern New Jersey, where considerably less precipitation fell.



Another tropical system (Hone) brought heavy rains and significant drought relief to Hawaii. The heaviest rains (over 2 feet) fell on upslope areas on the Big Island near the center of the storm. Farther north, several inches of rain fell on many locations, resulting in improvement to the drought that has affected much of the state this summer.



Drought improvement was more limited farther west. Several areas from the southern Appalachians and adjacent areas northward through eastern Kentucky, southwestern Indiana, and northeastern Ohio improved over the past four weeks. In addition, scattered heavy precipitation was responsible for scattered patches of drought improvement from central Oklahoma through Kansas and in central and southern sections of the Rockies and High Plains.



Abnormal dryness or drought (D0-D4 on the Drought Monitor) persisted or deteriorated over many other parts of the country, especially in the central Appalachians and adjacent Ohio Valley, the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Southeast, northern Texas and part of adjacent Oklahoma, and parts of the northwestern Plains. Across the Plains and Rockies, precipitation was highly variable and localized, resulting in areas of deterioration and improvement being in close proximity to each other. To the north, moderate drought persisted in extreme southeastern Alaska.



By the end of September, abundant rainfall - especially early in the month - is expected to bring improving conditions to the areas of drought across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and the central Appalachians south of central West Virginia. The western fringes of the drought areas affecting the Northwest are also expected to see improvement or removal where normal September totals are at least 3 inches. Elsewhere, moderate drought in southeastern Alaska is expected to dissipate by the end of September, and improvement or removal is forecast across Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii.



In contrast, persistence or deterioration is anticipated for the remaining areas of drought in the contiguous 48 states; specifically in the northern Intermountain West, the Rockies, the Plains north of the Red River (south), the northern Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians, and the Virginias' Piedmont. Some drought development is expected in a few areas adjacent to existing drought in central Idaho, southwestern New Mexico, areas along and near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, and a large part of the central and western Ohio Valley. The extant drought in the central and western parts of Hawaii are also expected to continue or worsen through the end of the month.



Wet weather has prevailed for several months across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. As a result, the region is drought-free, and is expected to remain so through at least the end of September.



Forecaster: Rich Tinker



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: September 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion