Latest Monthly Assessment - According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on October 25, 84.46 percent of the contiguous United States (CONUS) is designated with D0 (abnormal dryness) or D1+ (drought), which is the largest coverage since 2000. However, due to a major pattern change over the West during late October, this drought coverage may have peaked with the onset of beneficial precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central U.S. The updated monthly outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal precipitation throughout the northwest quarter of the CONUS, supporting drought removal or improvement for the Pacific Northwest, parts of northern California, and the northern Rockies through the end of November. For the remainder of the West, long-term drought is most likely to persist on a monthly time scale. Heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) during late October coupled with another round of heavy precipitation during the first week of November supports improving drought conditions across the middle Mississippi Valley, Ozarks, and parts of the central to southern Great Plains. Drought improvement or removal also extends northeast to include parts of northern Illinois and the upper Mississippi Valley, due in part to recent heavy precipitation. Drought persistence or development are forecast for most of the Southeast, while the small lingering areas of drought across the Northeast are forecast to persist through the end of November. Continued drought improvement is expected throughout Hawaii with Alaska and Puerto Rico likely remaining drought-free.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook Issued: November 30, 2022

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion