Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought continued to plague almost the entire western half of the contiguous United States during August, and while conditions gradually worsened across the northern tier, upper Midwest, central Plains, and parts of the eastern Corn Belt, widespread monsoonal convection brought some improvements to long term drought conditions across the Four Corners states. Little drought remains across the East, though some stubborn areas persisted across the central Appalachians and far northern New England. During early September, the remnants of Hurricane Ida will swing through Appalachains and the mid-Atlantic region, quickly ending the lingering drought conditions there. Widespread heavy rainfall that began at the end of August will continue through the first week of September across the northeastern Plains and upper-Midwest, sparking some drought relief across Nebraska, the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa. Despite these improvements, large areas of long term drought will likely remain in place across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest through the end of September. Drought reduction is favored for the rest of the Midwest based on climatology, though confidence is lower than in the upper-Midwest. Cooler temperatures and a potential wet period in early to mid-September yields a low confidence forecast of improvement for northern New England. In contrast, a hot, dry start to September across the south-central Plains may result in rapid late season drought development across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, eastern Colorado, and northern Texas. Elsewhere, climatology and dynamical model forecasts favor drought persistence across Hawaii, while a wet summer climatology and the peak of hurricane season may bring an end to drought across southern Puerto Rico.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Outlook issued: September 30, 2021 at 3 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion