Latest Monthly Assessment - The Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) for June 2025 favors improvement/removal of drought conditions over the Atlantic coast states and over the south-central High Plains region. The precipitation received from frequent passages of low pressure systems and thunderstorm clusters has chipped away at both the shorter-term and longer-term deficits in these areas during the spring. Most recently in Maryland this past week, an extended period of light, soaking rain helped to alleviate the longer-term hydrological drought which has been in place for over a year in some parts of the state. Drought reductions are also anticipated for Cape Cod, the Carolinas, and Florida, with the Sunshine State now transitioning from its climatological dry to rainy season. Drought improvement/removal is also favored across portions of northeastern Colorado and adjacent parts of southwestern Nebraska, Kansas, and northwestern Oklahoma, consistent with CPC's updated 30-day precipitation outlook favoring above normal precipitation in June.



For remaining drought areas, which covers large portions of the western and central Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), persistence of drought and new drought development are favored. For the Central CONUS, these areas are expected to remain far enough displaced from the mean jet stream and storm tracks, with received precipitation amounts expected to be inadequate to warrant a one-category improvement in drought conditions. In addition, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored for much of this area in the latter half of June which favors elevated evapotranspiration rates and increased stress on regional vegetation. In the West, June is typically a dry time of the year, though there is an unusual exception in progress as of this writing (May 31st). A mid-level cutoff Low approaching Baja California, and moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin (centered just south of the southern tip of Baja) are working in tandem to initiate a Gulf of California moisture surge. This surge of enhanced moisture is forecast to push northward up the Gulf of California and continue into much of Arizona over the next 24-48 hours. Predicted surface dew points in the 60s indicates some of this moisture may actually make it down to the desert floor, despite the initially very dry subcloud layer. For example, today's (May 31st) Tucson, AZ WFO homepage (NWS Tucson Arizona) shows a chart that expects the most likely scenario for rainfall (25th-75th percentile) ranges from 0.10-inch to 0.50-inch in Tucson, and 0.20-inch to 0.60-inch in Nogales. Drier or wetter scenarios are possible, but the ranges listed show the most likely scenario. Even if precipitation amounts were to register as above-normal for the month of June (which is unusual in itself), it is doubtful that the amounts would be enough to justify a one-category improvement in regional drought conditions.



Outside the Lower 48 states, no drought is expected to develop in Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. Virgin Islands in June. For the northeastern Caribbean area, the rainy season is currently in progress, and June 1st marks the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season. In Hawaii, ENSO-neutral conditions and the current dry season favor a typical trade wind pattern, with rainfall along the windward slopes of the islands, and a notable lack of rainfall along the leeward slopes. Persistence of drought is generally favored.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion