Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought coverage remained historically low across the contiguous United States through June 25. For July 2019, however, persistence and some drought expansion should be much more common than improvement. Above normal temperatures and generally subnormal rainfall is expected in the Northwest. Drought should persist there, expanding to cover north-central Oregon and most of Washington by month's end. Elsewhere, extant drought should persist and expand into some adjacent areas in the northern Great Plains, south Texas, and portions of the Southeast. A protracted and intense drought in the Four Corners Region has progressively improved this year, and a swath of moderate drought in western New Mexico is all that remains. The monsoon season gets underway in July, and expected wetter-than-normal conditions for the first half of the month, combined with the seasonal increase in rainfall, is forecast to remove this drought by the end of July. The small area of drought in northeastern Florida is the only other area expected to ease during this period.



Outside the contiguous states, the swath of drought across Puerto Rico should continue, reaching into adjacent areas by the end of July. Drought should also remain in place across the south half of the Alaskan Panhandle, where some degree of dryness has existed for more than a year. Most leeward areas in Hawaii, where July is a relatively dry time of year, are also forecast to remain in drought. Localized parts of central Maui and south-central Oahu are exceptions, with recent heavy rains improving moisture deficits there.



Forecaster: Rich Tinker



Next Monthly Outlook issued: July 31, 2019 at 3 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion