Latest Monthly Assessment - During the past 4 weeks, the western half of the CONUS was a mixed bag, with sporadic and widespread 1 to 3 class drought improvement or degradation observed across the regions. Conversely, much of the eastern half of the CONUS underwent a rapid 1 to 3 class degradation due to widespread severe precipitation deficits during the period, with the exception of parts of western Arkansas, central-eastern Tennessee and the southern Florida Peninsula where 1 to 3 class improvement was observed due to periodic heavy rainfall across the region.



Looking ahead into the next month, drought removal or improvement is anticipated across much of the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain regions and the southeastern Florida Peninsula, due to predicted above-normal precipitation. Conversely, drought persistence is likely for the remaining ongoing drought areas across much of the CONUS, with potential development over much of the Southern Plains, parts of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Midwest. This is attributed to absence of wet signals in CPC monthly precipitation outlook. Improvement is also likely across parts of Arizona due to heavy precipitation in the past week.



Currently, Alaska is drought-free, and these conditions are expected to persist, as the CPC extended-range forecasts, Weeks 3-4 and monthly outlooks favor above-normal or equal chance (EC) precipitation across much of the state. Drought persistence is expected for the existing drought across Hawaii Islands, due to the absence of wet signals in the CPC outlook. Drought-free conditions are likely for Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands, with predicted near-normal rainfall across the region coupled with a wet climatology.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion