Latest Monthly Assessment -
The Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) for November 2020 is based on dynamical model guidance, official temperature and precipitation outlooks, climatology, recent precipitation observations, and considers the effects of La Niña. Drought is predicted to persist across much of the West, with some drought development possible in southern interior California. This potential development of drought in southern California is not only uncertain, but a corresponding delay in the rainy season can have significant impacts on (for example) the fisheries industry and the management of rangelands. In contrast, odds favor drought improvement/removal over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Drought is likely to persist across most of the Great Plains, consistent with precipitation forecasts at time-scales out to a month in advance, and with November climatology. Some drought development is possible in central Texas. Very limited, small-scale improvements in current drought conditions are expected across the Midwest and Ohio Valley due to passing frontal systems. In the Northeast, recent precipitation is helping to ease abnormal dryness and drought, especially in eastern and southern portions of New England. There is currently no drought in the Southeast thanks to a very active Atlantic hurricane season and occasional stalled fronts, though some development is possible by the end of November in Georgia and South Carolina.
Drought removal is anticipated in northwestern Alaska, based on the updated 30-day precipitation outlook. In Hawaii, drought improvement and/or removal is expected, coincident with the onset of the traditional rainy season and the current La Niña. However, this is far from certain, as the most significant precipitation typically falls during the winter months, not in November. Puerto Rico is drought-free and is expected to remain free of drought through November.
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Next Monthly Outlook issued: November 30, 2020 at 3 PM EST
Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion