Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought coverage increased across the Great Plains during June. Additional development is likely across the Central to Southern Great Plains during early July, due to little or no rainfall and above normal temperatures. The most likely area for development across the Corn Belt exists from Indiana east to Ohio along with small areas of Illinois, Iowa, and southern Nebraska. These development areas coincide with where the larger 30-day precipitation deficits exist and above normal temperatures are likely through at least the first two weeks of July. Despite rainfall at the end of June, persistence is most likely on a broad scale across New England with a slight expansion of drought forecast from New York south to Pennsylvania. A predicted delayed onset of the Southwest Monsoon favors development across parts of New Mexico and Arizona. Throughout the remainder of the West, a relatively dry climatology during July strongly favors persistence. Drought removal (D1 to D0 according to the U.S. Drought Monitor) is most likely across western North Dakota due to heavy rainfall at the end of June and increased chances of above normal precipitation during July. Removal is also favored across Minnesota.



Although minor improvements are expected to drought across Puerto Rico as tropical waves with locally heavy rain cross the Caribbean, persistence is most likely on a broad scale. Persistence is forecast across ongoing drought throughout Hawaii, while Alaska is likely to remain drought-free through the end of July.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Outlook issued: July 31, 2020 at 3 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion