Latest Monthly Assessment - Drought conditions remain far more prevalent across the western CONUS than the East, though pockets of drought and more widespread abnormal dryness have expanded rapidly across the south-central CONUS, Mississippi Valley, central Corn Belt, and Southeast with unrelenting heat and generally below-average rainfall. Cooler temperatures and abundant precipitation eased drought conditions across the northern tier, while an early monsoon surge brought abundant convection and some flooding to parts of the Four Corners region in recent weeks. During July, above-average temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS, which will maintain high evapotranspiration rates during the climatologically hottest month of the year. Below-average precipitation is favored for much of the central US, including the Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Corn Belt. This drier pattern, coupled with periods of heat, may promote further rapid drought development across parts of Texas, the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, southern Missouri, and the central Corn Belt. Drought expansion is also possible across the Plains in regions where soil moisture remains fairly low. More generous rainfall in the short term may preclude widespread drought development across the upper-Midwest, though the region is primed for potential drought development, which may occur in any areas that miss out on the convective precipitation. Across the rapidly drying Southeast, climatological summer convection may help to stave off further drought expansion, but is unlikely to be sufficient enough to improve the situation away from the immediate Atlantic Coast. Areas of short term drought continue to expand across coastal New England, with climatological precipitation during July unlikely to be sufficient to yield substantial improvements. A slightly wetter outlook across southern New England makes drought removal more likely for Connecticut and Rhode Island.



Outside of the CONUS, drought conditions continued to expand across Alaska, and despite a more favorable precipitation outlook for July, warm temperatures and near constant sunlight will likely make the drought impacts intractable during July. Climatological dryness favors drought persistence and possible expansion across Hawaii, while the absence of a clear wet signal across Puerto Rico makes drought persistence the most likely outcome.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2022 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion