Latest Monthly Assessment - During August, periods of storminess continued to improve drought conditions (1 to 3 class improvement) across the Tennessee Valley, and much of the East, though dryness returned to Maine. In contrast, below-average precipitation and periods of much above normal temperatures sparked (1 to 3 class) drought worsening and expansion across the upper Midwest, portions of the northern High Plains, Central and Southern Plains. Across the West, although drought improvements or degradations were noted across parts of the region, major drought covered areas were nearly unchanged. Strong El Niño conditions continue to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific, which will increasingly impact the long term patterns across the US. Across the East, favorable wet signals during the period are anticipated to continue drought reduction across much of the region. Across the upper Midwest and much of the Great Plains, persistence is expected due to lack of wet signals, with drought expansion likely in parts of those anomalously drier areas. Across the West, seasonably dry conditions will provide little opportunity for drought reduction across much of Nevada, Idaho, Montana, and eastern portions of Oregon and Washington. The exception is the coastal region of the Pacific Northwest where 1 class improvement is likely. Further inland, an anticipated continuation of enhanced monsoonal rainfall favors drought reductions/improvements across parts of the Great Basin, Four Corners states and Central Rockies.



Recent moderate drought conditions in east-central Alaska are projected to improve, whereas a small drought area in southeastern Alaska is expected to continue. Drought is neither present nor forecast for the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, drought conditions are expected to actively expand across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to a persistently suppressed convective regime driven in part by strong El Niño conditions.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: September 30, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion