Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for May and May-June-July (MJJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for MJJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on April 15, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



WEST REGION: Roughly half of the Region is covered by drought (as depicted by the Drought Monitor), and about one-third of that area is entrenched extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought. The worst conditions are found primarily along the southern tier of the region. May-July (MJJ) is an extremely dry time of the year along the West Coast, with less than 10 percent of the annual precipitation falling across California and west of the Cascades. This proportion increases progressively to the east, and this is one of the wetter times of the year over much of New Mexico and Montana. More than half of the annual total falls during this 3-month period in northeastern Montana, and amounts exceed 45 percent of the annual normal in northeastern New Mexico. Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon establishes a unique climatological regime across New Mexico and Arizona. There, May and June are extremely dry, and rainfall increases quickly during July. In southeast Arizona, 3 percent or less of the annual precipitation falls in June, then over 15 percent of the yearly total is typically recorded for July. Existing drought is expected to persist or intensify throughout the Region, with small areas of development forecast in northeastern Montana, northeasternmost Arizona, and far northeastern New Mexico. This is abetted by the MJJ outlook favoring subnormal precipitation across all but the southern tier of the Region. There, the seasonal precipitation forecast is not adjusted from climatology except in parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. An early, above-normal start to the monsoon is anticipated during July, but given the entrenched nature of the drought in this region, and that most of the monsoon occurs after July, drought persistence is also forecast here.



Forecast confidence is high for the West Coast States, and moderate to high in most other areas. In southern parts of the monsoon-affected areas, confidence is low to moderate due to uncertainty in how a robust start to the monsoon might impact entrenched D3-D4 conditions.



HIGH PLAINS REGION: Drought covers close to 60 percent of this Region, but extreme to exceptional drought is restricted to less than 5 percent. MJJ is the wettest 3-months of the year in most locations, with 45 to 60 percent of the annual precipitation typically falling from northwest Kansas and adjacent Colorado northward through most of the Dakotas. This time of year is not particularly wet in western sections, across the higher elevations of Wyoming and Colorado. The MJJ outlook favors below-normal precipitation throughout the Region, and since this is a wet time of year, moisture deficits could build quickly. All areas of existing drought are expected to persist or intensify, with drought expanding to cover most other parts of the Region. The are only two exceptions: One is over western sections, where varying terrain and lower precipitation normals preclude identifying specific areas of development; and the other is in southeastern Kansas, where heavy precipitation (2 to locally over 4 inches) next week is followed by a week-2 forecast significantly favoring above-normal precipitation. It is unclear how 3 abnormally dry months following 2 excessively wet weeks will eventually play out.



Forecast confidence is high in most of the Region, but moderate at best in southeastern areas where short-term forecasts conflict with longer-term outlooks.



SOUTH REGION: A large area of extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4) covers western and parts of central Texas while drought of lesser intensity covers most other areas south and west of the Brazos River, as well as most of the western half of Oklahoma. The rest of the Region is drought-free. The existing drought should persist or intensify. The MJJ outlook favors subnormal precipitation in most of these areas outside the Big Bend, where the protracted and intense nature of the drought should preclude significant relief through the end of the period even if amounts end up close to normal. Drought is expected to expand through most of the Texas Panhandle by the end of July, but eastward expansion could be precluded by heavy to excessive rains over the last half of April. The Lower Mississippi Valley, Mississippi, and Tennessee should remain drought-free given normal to wet antecedent conditions and an indeterminate MJJ precipitation outlook.



Forecast confidence is high over most of the Region, but moderate along and near the eastern fringe of the drought region due to uncertainties inherent to contrasting short-range and long-range precipitation outlooks.



MIDWEST REGION: Drought coverage is generally restricted to the western tier of the Region, with patches also covering northeastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri, east-central Michigan, and areas adjacent to these. Drought is expected to persist and expand in western sections, covering the entire western tier by the end of July. The MJJ outlook favors drier than normal conditions there. To the east, persistence is also forecast in northern Minnesota and the other areas of drought outside east-central Michigan, but with lower confidence due to increased odds that MJJ precipitation will be closer to normal. Only the small area of drought in east-central Michigan is forecast to ease.



Forecast confidence is high in western sections, and low to moderate farther east.



SOUTHEAST REGION: Generally moderate to severe drought is established across portions of the Florida Peninsula, the Carolinas and some of adjacent Georgia, and northern Virginia. There is a relatively small patch of extreme (D3) drought over interior southern Florida. The MJJ outlook leans toward surplus precipitation throughout these areas, prompting a forecast for improvement or removal of drought.



Forecast confidence is high across Peninsular Florida where the wet forecast coincides with a climatological increase in rainfall June-July that is usually robust, but moderate elsewhere equaling the confidence in the MJJ forecast there.



NORTHEAST REGION: Moderate to severe drought covers central and north Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania and adjacent locales, northern New Jersey and nearby areas, and parts of southern New England. The MJJ forecast marginally favors above-normal rainfall in all these areas, and the Drought Outlook follows suit.



Forecast confidence is moderate except in the D2 areas of Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania, where moisture shortages are longer-term and may not be as impacted by a wetter-than-normal MJJ.



ALASKA: The state is currently drought-free and is expected to remain so.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high.



HAWAII: Drought conditions in most of the larger cities and the windward areas are expected to improve or dissipate by the end of July, but leeward drought areas are not expected to change much, and an uncertain MJJ outlook on the Big Island during a drier time of year also led to a persistence forecast there. No expansion is expected.



Forecast confidence is moderate in windward areas, and low to moderate elsewhere.



PUERTO RICO: The commonwealth is currently drought-free and is expected to remain so, but tropical rainfall is notoriously difficult to forecast longer-term, especially given the season and uncertainty in ENSO evolution.



Forecast confidence is moderate to low.



U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: These territories are currently drought-free and are expected to remain so. Inherent uncertainties in forecasting spring-summer tropical rainfall, and the current assessment of abnormal dryness (D0) in the northern islands, means confidence is low and the abnormally dry areas will need to be closely monitored for intensification.



Forecast confidence is low.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: May 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT