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HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion
 
Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook
 

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February and February-March-April (FMA), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for FMA, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 14, 2025 was used for initial drought conditions.



During the past month, drought conditions have improved in the northwestern region, mostly due to active atmospheric river events bringing widespread above normal heavy precipitation and mountain snowfall in the wet season. However, precipitation deficits were observed across much of southwestern portions of the region since the beginning of the wet season and resulted in drought degradation and expansion over the region. Looking forward into the FMA season with La Niñ\;a conditions favored, the CPC monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks predict an enhanced wet season across the entire northwestern portion of the Western Region, with above-average precipitation centered over the northern Rockies, along with a slight tilt towards below-normal temperatures. Therefore, continued drought improvement is favored throughout the FMA period for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana. Drier climatology and frozen soils and streams may make widespread drought reduction less likely across the High Plains through the end of March. Across the southern tier, below-average precipitation is favored for the desert Southwest. Drought persistence is favored with some expansion likely across portions of the Four Corners region.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the northern half of the Western Region, and low to moderate across the southern half.



During the past month, nearly 60 percent of the High Plains region was currently experiencing drought conditions and more than 35 percent of the region was under severe drought conditions. The winter months are a dry time of year for the High Plains, and soils and streams frequently remain frozen through the end of March, particularly across the northern Plains. Looking ahead for the FMA season, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts favor slightly above normal precipitation in parts of the region. However, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks both favor equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal precipitation across much of the region, with slightly below-normal precipitation forecast over parts of southern High Plains. Drought persistence is the most likely outcome for the region through the end of April, except northwestern portions of Wyoming where some improvements are likely due to forecast wet signals and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains region.



During the past 4 weeks, periodic heavy precipitation across eastern portions of the region brought widespread drought amelioration for parts of eastern Texas and adjacent Oklahoma and Arkansas, while some degradation was also observed over parts of central and southern Texas and southern Mississippi. For the next week, mostly dry conditions are favored for the western portions of the Southern region, while a wet signal is favored over the eastern portions of the region. Slightly above-average precipitation is favored across much of the region for Week-2. With La Niñ\;a conditions favored to continue during the FMA period, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor a canonical La Niñ\;a response pattern, with drier conditions across much of the southern and western areas of the Southern region, a winter storm track favoring wetter conditions across the the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee-Ohio Valleys. Therefore, persistence is favored for the existing drought over Texas, with expansion likely across some abnormally dry areas. In contrast, improvements are favored for the remaining drought across Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southern region.



Moderate to severe drought is currently affecting parts of the Midwest region. During the past month, periodic heavy precipitation brought some widespread relief across the Midwest. Snowpack conditions remain below normal across much of the region. During the next week, the WPC forecasts a wet system crossing much of the Midwest region, along with a blast of arctic air. This system will bring a swath of snow with it, but accumulations do not significantly impact drought conditions in the short term. Looking ahead into the FMA season with the La Niña favored, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor a winter storm track across the Great Lakes and Tennessee-Ohio Valleys. While frozen streams and soils may slow the recharge process, extended periods of above-normal precipitation should improve the drought conditions overall across the Great Lakes and Corn Belt region, and western Missouri. Persistence is expected for western portion of Minnesota and Iowa, where the wet signal is weaker coupled with a dry climatological season.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest region.



During the past month, more than half of the Southeast region was experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. A swath of rainfall brought widespread removal or improvement across much of the region. However, drought development was observed over parts of southern Georgia due to precipitation deficit in the period. Looking ahead into the FMA season, 1 to 5 inches of precipitation is forecast across large portions of the southern region, including Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina in the next 7 days. The CPC extended-range forecasts favor slightly above normal precipitation across parts of the southern region. Given a favored La Niñ\;a for the season, the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks predict drier and warmer than normal conditions across much of the region. Therefore, persistence is expected for the existing drought over the region and drought development is favored for some abnormal dry areas in southeastern portions of the region, although drought reductions are more likely in northeastern Virginia, where equal chances maintained for the precipitation outlook and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge over the region may alleviate drought impacts that developed during the autumn months.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast region.



At the beginning of the last month, more than 65 percent of the Northeast region experienced moderate to extreme drought during a time of year when recharge is typically highly effective. Several storm systems moved across the region and brought widespread precipitation. These systems improved drought conditions across the Appalachians, coastal regions and interior New England. Currently, about 34 percent of the region is under moderate to extreme drought conditions and streamflows remain quite low along the coastal region of the Delmarva northeastward to southern New England. Snowpack conditions remain below normal across much of the region. Looking forward into the FMA season, the WPC forecasts slightly wet signals across the region in next 7 days, while the CPC extended-range outlooks favor slightly near to below normal precipitation over the areas. Both the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor above normal precipitation in the interior Northeast region and equal chances for precipitation along the coastal region, coupled with a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge for the Northeast region. Improvement is the most likely outcome for the existing drought conditions across the region.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast region.



Alaska is currently drought free, and drought development is not likely during the cold, dark winter and early spring months. Snowpack conditions across western Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula will need to be monitored, and could cause drought concerns in later of the season.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Abnormally dry conditions during late November and the first half of December resulted in some drought expansion across Hawaii. The core of the wet season occurs during the January - March period, and CPC's monthly and seasonal guidance favors above-normal precipitation due to an anticipated La Niñ\;a response pattern. Enhanced trade winds and potential Kona Low features both can boost precipitation across the islands. Therefore, drought reduction is the most likely outcome.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Puerto Rico. The dynamical forecasts across the Caribbean region favor above-normal precipitation, which is consistent with climate anomalies associated with La Niñ\;a events. The region also trends to its rainy season in the later period. Therefore, no drought is favored to develop during the FMA period.



Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.



No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across the US Virgin Islands, and the same climate signals factoring into the forecast for Puerto Rico also apply to the Virgin Islands. No drought is anticipated to develop through the end of April.



Forecast confidence is high for the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST

 


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