Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April and April-May-June (AMJ), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for AMJ, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on March 19, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.



Much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California remain mostly drought-free. Snow water equivalent is near or above-normal for the southern Cascades, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the Great Basin. The longwave pattern would favor additional snowfall during late March and into the beginning of April. Based on favorable snowfall along with the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions through at least the beginning of April, removal is forecast for eastern Utah. Elsewhere, across the Pacific Northwest, broad-scale drought persistence is the most likely outcome as the climatology becomes increasingly drier later in the spring. Although small-scale improvements are expected for parts of Arizona and New Mexico due to recent precipitation and favored wetness during the next two weeks, broad-scale persistence is also most likely. Also, the AMJ precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation across New Mexico. Since snow water equivalent is below-normal and there is not a robust wet signal at the seasonal time scale, persistence is forecast for northern Idaho and western Montana. Persistence is also favored across northeastern Montana due to the lack of a wet signal at any time scale. Conversely, drought removal is more likely for southeastern Montana due to the AMJ precipitation outlook and an increasingly wet climatology.



Forecast confidence is high for the West Region.



An increasingly wet climatology and the AMJ precipitation outlook favoring above-normal precipitation support improvement and removal from the central Great Plains westward to Colorado and Wyoming. In addition, beneficial precipitation is expected across the eastern third of Kansas and Nebraska during late March. It is noteworthy that much of the central Great Plains typically receive 40 to 50 percent of their annual precipitation during April, May, and June. Since the wet signal among the seasonal precipitation tools diminishes farther to the north, and given the lack of winter snowfall, persistence or development is more likely across northern North Dakota. If there is a period of excessive heat later in May or June, there is a high concern for rapid onset drought especially across the Dakotas.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.



Similar to the Southeast, the South region experienced major drought removal and improvement this past winter due to El Niño. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, almost three-quarters of this region was designated with at least moderate drought by late October 2023. In addition, extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) coverage was at 30 percent. By mid-March 2024, drought coverage had decreased to less than 20 percent and D3-D4 coverage was less than 5 percent. Since the remainder of March is favored to be relatively wet and the April-May-June outlook depicts increased above-normal precipitation probabilities, drought removal or improvement is forecast across the Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastern Oklahoma. Farther to the west across the southern Great Plains, drought concerns are higher due to recent warmth and enhanced winds. As temperatures warm later this spring, development is likely for parts of western Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and Oklahoma Panhandle. Persistence is favored for ongoing drought in western Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and southwestern Oklahoma. This development/persistence forecast is consistent with a lack of precipitation during the next two weeks, a continued risk of enhanced winds, and the April-May-June outlook depicting increased below-normal precipitation probabilities.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the South Region.



Following a brief improvement across the Midwest earlier this winter, drought coverage increased to above 40 percent by mid-March. As of March 19, much of the upper Mississippi Valley has received less than 0.5 inch of precipitation (liquid equivalent) during the past 30 days. Also, the lack of snowfall for the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes is a major drought concern heading into the spring. This lack of winter snowfall, long-term drought, and equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation make persistence the most likely outcome across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Wisconsin, and much of Minnesota and Iowa. However, forecast confidence is lower for Iowa along with southern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as those areas are likely to receive heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, liquid equivalent) during late March. Improvement is forecast for southwestern Minnesota where the heaviest precipitation is expected during the next week and the long-term drought signal is not quite as strong. Improvement or removal is forecast for southwestern Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois due to: the increased chance of heavy precipitation during late March, an increasingly wet climatology during AMJ, and the AMJ precipitation outlook leans wet. Although development is not forecast on the seasonal time scale across the Corn Belt, this region will have to be closely monitored as temperatures warm later this spring and into the early summer. It is noteworthy that the April-May-June temperature outlook depicts above-normal temperature probabilities exceeding 50 percent across much of the Corn Belt. A multi-week period of excessive heat and lack of rainfall would raise concerns for the rapid onset of drought by the summer.



Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.



Drought coverage across the Southeast peaked in November when 62.42 percent of the region was designated by drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The beneficial El Niño winter precipitation resulted in a major and rapid decline in this drought coverage from December 2023 to January 2024. By mid-February, less than 1 percent of this region was designated with any drought coverage. The small lingering drought area is expected to end across eastern North Carolina, based on favored wetness at forecast times scales ranging from late March to April-May-June.



Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.



The Northeast is nearly drought-free. Since precipitation has averaged above-normal during the past 90 and 180 days and there is a lack of a dry signal at any time scale this spring, the Northeast is likely to remain mostly drought-free. Only two small drought areas are designated in the U.S. Drought Monitor and those include in parts of western New York and Nantucket. Given a very wet next two weeks (recent GEFS: 2 to 4 inches of precipitation), removal is forecast for Nantucket. Persistence is slightly favored for western New York, following a lack of snowfall this winter and drought has lasted more than 6 months.



Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.



Alaska is currently drought-free and 2023-2024 winter precipitation generally averaged near or above-normal across southern Mainland Alaska and southeastern Alaska. Given the antecedent conditions and with the AMJ outlook either forecasting increased above-normal precipitation probabilities or equal chances for below, near, or above-normal precipitation, Alaska is expected to remain drought-free.



Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.



Persistence is forecast for ongoing drought areas of Hawaii due to a lingering dry signal associated with El Niño, while development is anticipated for areas designated with abnormal dryness (DO) in the U.S. Drought Monitor. The persistence/development is consistent with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast of increased below-normal precipitation probabilities.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.



Drought coverage continues to decrease throughout Puerto Rico since mid-February with 28-day streamflows mostly near normal. Based on increasingly wet climatology and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favoring above-normal precipitation, drought removal is forecast by the end of June.



Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.



The U.S. Virgin Islands are drought-free and given the NMME depicting increased above-normal precipitation probabilities during AMJ, no development is forecast.



Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: April 18, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT