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HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook
 
 
 
 
 
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge
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As discussed in the initial release of the seasonal drought outlook, flash drought expanded rapidly across the Southeast; however, long term guidance and climatology continue to favor removal of the Southeast drought at the seasonal time scale. Soil moisture has decreased considerably aross the Mississippi Valley and central Corn Belt, increasing vulnerability to short term rapid drought development during July. Given the forecasts favoring above-average temperatures at all time scales in the region, drought developing in this region would be favored to persist through the end of September. Along the western Gulf Coast, a tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rainfall, potentially ameliorating drought across southeastern Texas. Given climatology and the peak of hurricane season occuring in September, reintroduction of drought is not favored through the end of September; therefore, the updated seasonal outlook reflects the improvement introduced in the July monthly drought outlook.



Drought coverage expanded across Alaska, and confidence in any improvements throughout the summer months with persistent sunshine is reduced; therefore, drought persistence is favored.





Updated Seasonal Assessment - As discussed in the initial release of the seasonal drought outlook, flash drought expanded rapidly across the Southeast; however, long term guidance and climatology continue to favor removal of the Southeast drought at the seasonal time scale. Soil moisture has decreased considerably aross the Mississippi Valley and central Corn Belt, increasing vulnerability to short term rapid drought development during July. Given the forecasts favoring above-average temperatures at all time scales in the region, drought developing in this region would be favored to persist through the end of September. Along the western Gulf Coast, a tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rainfall, potentially ameliorating drought across southeastern Texas. Given climatology and the peak of hurricane season occuring in September, reintroduction of drought is not favored through the end of September; therefore, the updated seasonal outlook reflects the improvement introduced in the July monthly drought outlook.



Drought coverage expanded across Alaska, and confidence in any improvements throughout the summer months with persistent sunshine is reduced; therefore, drought persistence is favored.





Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past month, areas of heavy rainfall associated with cold fronts and organized convective activity boosted soil moisture and brought drought relief to portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, portions of the Southeast and the eastern Corn Belt. In contrast, drier conditions and periods of extreme heat overspread eastern Texas, the Mississippi Valley, and the central Corn Belt, rapidly reducing the available soil moisture. Across the drought-stricken West, widespread heavy precipitation across the Northwest and Northern Rockies brought some drought relief along with widespread flooding, while climatologically dry conditions coupled with periods of extreme heat exacerbated drought conditions further south. Across the east, areas of drought persist across parts of the southern Atlantic states, though copious moisture from a tropical disturbance that eventually developed into Tropical Storm Alex eliminated remaining drought from Florida. Increasing evapotranspiration rates have increased impacts of moisture deficits across coastal New England, resulting in recent drought development.



The June - September 2022 U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook is based on recent conditions, forecasts at various time scales throughout the outlook period, and an anticipated continuation of La Niña conditions through the end of September. A dry climatology precludes any prospects for drought improvements across much of the West, except across the lower Four Corners region, where an anticipated robust Monsoon season may yield some drought improvements for Arizona, western New Mexico, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado. Further east, hot and dry conditions through the end of June may result in flash drought development across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the central Corn Belt. Above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation favored in the CPC outlook may cause these flash drought impacts to persist through the end of the outlook period away from the immediate Gulf Coast, where a wetter climatology yields a better potential for improvements across southern Louisiana. Areas of flash drought development are also likely across the Southeast through the end of June and into early July, but with both the monthly and seasonal outlooks favoring above-average rainfall, these drought conditions are less likely to persist on a seasonal time scale. A wet outlook for New England supports drought reductions.



Drought conditions have recently expanded across southwestern Alaska, and these conditions are likely to persist to some extent through the end of September due to anticipated above-normal temperatures. A wetter forecast favors drought improvements for central Alaska. Across Hawaii, a strong dry signal throughout the period supports drought expansion, while a wet summer climatology and potential tropical cyclone activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season favors drought improvements across Puerto Rico.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 21, 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT



Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion

 


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