The updated ourlook for September 2024 favors above-normal precipitation over much of Texas and the Southeast due to a recent change in the guidance (surplus rain wss not favored there in the initial September monthly forecast issued mid-August). This prompted a forecast change to drought improvement or removal in areas of drought south of the Texas Panhandle and Red River (south) eastward across most of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. In addition, drought development is no longer expected in any adjacent or nearby areas. Farther east, conditions have been deteriorating across much of the middle and lower Ohio Valley, and with near- or below-normal precipitation anticipated in September, drought development has been forecast from most of Ohio and Indiana southwestward to the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers' confluence. Additional changes were made on Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii. The remnants of Hurricane Hone dropped excessive rains on these locations, with over 2 feet of rain reported in northern Big Island. The full effects of this inundation have not likely come to fruition yet, so the outlook is revised to drought improvement or removal on Maui and the Big Island, and development is no longer expected in any part of the state.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated ourlook for September 2024 favors above-normal precipitation over much of Texas and the Southeast due to a recent change in the guidance (surplus rain wss not favored there in the initial September monthly forecast issued mid-August). This prompted a forecast change to drought improvement or removal in areas of drought south of the Texas Panhandle and Red River (south) eastward across most of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. In addition, drought development is no longer expected in any adjacent or nearby areas. Farther east, conditions have been deteriorating across much of the middle and lower Ohio Valley, and with near- or below-normal precipitation anticipated in September, drought development has been forecast from most of Ohio and Indiana southwestward to the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers' confluence. Additional changes were made on Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii. The remnants of Hurricane Hone dropped excessive rains on these locations, with over 2 feet of rain reported in northern Big Island. The full effects of this inundation have not likely come to fruition yet, so the outlook is revised to drought improvement or removal on Maui and the Big Island, and development is no longer expected in any part of the state.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought coverage expanded and intensified across much of the Great Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Ohio Valley this past summer. Drought persistence is forecast for much of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians where large precipitation deficits exist dating back 6 to 12 months. Drought improvement or removal is more likely to the north across northern Ohio and northeastern Indiana which have smaller long-term precipitation deficits and the October-November-December (OND) outlook favors above-normal precipitation. Improvement and removal is also forecast to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, including western parts of Maryland and Virginia.

Persistence is the most likely outcome for inland areas of the Southeast along with the Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley. However, based on the October outlook tilting wet farther to the south and east, drought improvement or removal is forecast for parts of Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and the Florida Panhandle. Forecast confidence for the Southeast is low due to large uncertainty on future tracks of any tropical cyclones that emerge from the Gulf of Mexico during late September and October.

A drier climatology supports persistence across the Northern to Central Great Plains, while persistence and development are forecast from Kansas south to Oklahoma and parts of Texas. Development is most likely where antecedent dryness coincides with where the OND outlook favors below-normal precipitation. Persistence is also favored for ongoing drought areas of the Southwest. If La Niña becomes established this fall, then a larger area of the southern tier of the country would be vulnerable to drought development later during the 2024-2025 winter.

The fall and early winter are a wetter time of year from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Rockies. Based on this increasingly wet climatology and also the OND outlook tilting wet, drought improvement or removal is forecast for those areas. Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to be nearly or completely drought-free by the end of December.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 17, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion