Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

Outlooks
   Drought Discussion
   Archive
   U.S. Monthly Temp.
      & Prec.

   U.S. Seasonal Temp.
     & Prec.

   Verification

Monitoring and Data
   GIS Data
   U.S. Weekly Drought       Monitor
   Drought
   Soil Moisture

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

 
HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook
 
 
 
 
 
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge
(Click on image to enlarge)
 
PDF Version of Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic Adobe PDF Reader
 

Increasing dryness extending from upstate South Carolina through the Virginia Tidewater region coupled with meager precipitation anticipated in early September may result in short term drought development during September. This is fairly low confidence, as tropical systems or frontal intrusions during the month can provide ample rainfall with a fairly short forecast lead time. Current dynamical model forecasts do not favor tropical cyclone activity affecting this region, however, so drought is favored to develop. At the seasonal time scale, this drought is not favored to last through the end of November, so no changes were made to the initial seasonal outlook. Drought development is now favored for the Delmarva peninsula after nearly no rain fell in the past 30 days. Given the stronger dry signal, this drought has a better chance of persisting through the end of November; therefore, the development is included on the seasonal update. The updated monthly guidance reflects a greater potential for late season warmth for the Northern Plains. This increases the chances for drought development, which is indicated on the September outlook. Any drought that develops across the Plains is likely to persist through the end of November. For Hawaii, drought impacts have steadily worsened, and with an ongoing strong La Niña response, the dry signal is quite pronounced. Therefore, drought development is now favored to occur during September, and these conditions are favored to persist through the end of November.





Updated Seasonal Assessment - Increasing dryness extending from upstate South Carolina through the Virginia Tidewater region coupled with meager precipitation anticipated in early September may result in short term drought development during September. This is fairly low confidence, as tropical systems or frontal intrusions during the month can provide ample rainfall with a fairly short forecast lead time. Current dynamical model forecasts do not favor tropical cyclone activity affecting this region, however, so drought is favored to develop. At the seasonal time scale, this drought is not favored to last through the end of November, so no changes were made to the initial seasonal outlook. Drought development is now favored for the Delmarva peninsula after nearly no rain fell in the past 30 days. Given the stronger dry signal, this drought has a better chance of persisting through the end of November; therefore, the development is included on the seasonal update. The updated monthly guidance reflects a greater potential for late season warmth for the Northern Plains. This increases the chances for drought development, which is indicated on the September outlook. Any drought that develops across the Plains is likely to persist through the end of November. For Hawaii, drought impacts have steadily worsened, and with an ongoing strong La Niña response, the dry signal is quite pronounced. Therefore, drought development is now favored to occur during September, and these conditions are favored to persist through the end of November.





Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past month, widespread drought relief occurred across the Four Corners region, southwestern Arizona and adjacent California, much of the Southern Plains and middle Mississippi Valley due to persistently robust monsoonal rainfall and heavy precipitation, with frequent localized flash flooding events observed in many of these areas. Periods of heavy rainfall also reversed the trend of rapid drought development across the Northeast. In contrast, episodes of extreme heat and dryness across the Northern Rockies, Northern High Plains and Central Plains caused drought expansion over these regions.



The late autumn and early winter months are a highly transitional time of year, as the wet season begins to ramp up along the West Coast. Long-term drought is likely to persist throughout much of the interior western U.S. However, an increasingly wet climatology through the late fall and early winter favors improvement across parts of Oregon, Washington, and coastal northern California. Drought conditions are also favored to continue improving across the Northeast due to a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Drought persistence is favored for the north-central Midwest due to lack of a wet signal for the coming season, while drought persistence and development is favored for the southwestern Midwest with forecast below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. All range outlooks favor drought persistence across the Great Plains, with drought development across portions of the Central and Southern Plains.



Alaska currently is drought free and is likely to continue as the region enters the cold season of the year. Removal is anticipated for any lingering drought across Puerto Rico. Drought improvement and removal is forecast for the Hawaiian Islands due to forecast near normal precipitation and the region is transitioning to its wet season.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook Issued: October 20, 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT.





Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion

 


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities