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HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook
 
 
 
 
 
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge
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During the late June, much of the eastern CONUS did miss out on meaningful precipitation coupled with anomalous heat recently, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and northern Florida where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed rapidly.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - During the late June, much of the eastern CONUS did miss out on meaningful precipitation coupled with anomalous heat recently, especially across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and northern Florida where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed rapidly.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - For the past 4 weeks, widespread beneficial rainfall across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) brought 1-3 class drought improvement or removal over portions of the western Midwest, Great Plains, West and Southeast. However, several locations did miss out on meaningful precipitation, especially across portions of HighPlains, where anomalous dryness and moderate to severe drought developed. Rapidly moderate to extreme (1-3 class) drought development was also observed over parts of the central-southern Florida Peninsula and then its southern portion was wiped out by extreme heavy rainfall recently. Pockets of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions have also newly developed and/or expanded across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Carolinas.



Looking forward to the July-August-September (JAS) SDO, drought persistence is favored with drought development likely across northern portions of the West, due to predicted below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across much of the areas, being the climatologically dry time of year and favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge. Drought persistence and development are forecast across the Southwest Central and Southern Plains, due to forecast below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures across much of the region. Parts of the Southwest also enter their climatologically wet (monsoon) season and favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. However, uncertainty remains greatest across portions of this region, due to the sporadic nature of thunderstorm activity during the monsoon season. Areas not seeing precipitation will likely experience degrading or expanding drought conditions. Drought persistence and redevelopment are likely across parts of the Ohio Valley due to lack of wet signals in the precipitation outlooks coupled with above normal temperatures over the region. Drought removal is expected for the Florida Peninsula, with forecast above normal precipitation outlooks and favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Drought removal is also likely for the existing moderate drought along the coastal Atlantic regions due to favorable precipitation outlooks across the areas in the JAS season.



Alaska is likely to remain drought-free, due to favorable precipitation outlooks for July and JAS. In Hawaii, drought persistence is forecast with drought development likely along leeward sides of the Islands, given predicted below normal precipitation, the antecedent dryness, JAS being a very dry time of year, and the potential for ENSO to transition toward La Niña conditions (i.e. colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific) toward the end of September. Conversely, antecedent wet conditions, very wet precipitation outlooks for July and JAS, and the potential for tropical activity are likely to keep Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) drought-free through the end of September.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 20, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: July 18, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion

 


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