No consistency adjustments to the Seasonal Drought Outlook were necessary.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No consistency adjustments to the Seasonal Drought Outlook were necessary.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 30 days, drought has slowly improved across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Southwest, Great Plains, southeastern and northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), due to the persistent Pacific flow into the western coastal regions and active storm tracks across the central and eastern CONUS. Conversely, drought expansion and intensification was observed across parts of the Northern and Central Rockies, northern Arizona, and Tennessee and Ohio Valleys where precipitation deficits continued to mount.



For the 2024 February-March-April (FMA) season, El Niño favors a continuation of improving drought conditions across parts of the southern CONUS. However, the forecast below normal precipitation across parts of the Midwest along with uncertainty in the precipitation outlook across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Northern Plains favors widespread drought persistence over these regions. Drought improvement is likely for parts of the Central Plains, where above normal precipitation is predicted. Drought removal is expected over southwestern Oregon, while persistence is forecast for the remainder of the Pacific Northwest. This is consistent with the FMA precipitation outlook. However, short-term improvements may occur throughout the Pacific Northwest due to a wet latter half of January. Drought persistence/development is forecast across parts of the Northern Rockies due to expected below normal precipitation, together with below normal snowpack over the region. Drought persistence is also favored across parts of the Southwest through the end of April due to lack of wet signals in the forecasts and also the relatively dry climatology. Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of April, with wet antecedent conditions and favorable precipitation outlooks. Conversely, antecedent dryness, El Niño, and unfavorable seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks favor drought persistence and development in Hawaii Islands. Drought persistence/development is anticipated across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 15, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion