Updated forecast information utilized in the May monthly drought outlook necessitated some changes to the seasonal drought outlook for May - July 2025. Due to short term forecasts favoring extremely heavy rainfall across the central and southern Plains, the seasonal outlook was updated to reflect a potential for improvements, consistent with the monthly outlook. Elsewhere, while the monthly outlook depicts a potential for drought persistence and expansion across the Southeast, these degradations are likely to be short term in nature. Therefore, the improvements through July indicated on the seasonal outlook have been preserved in this update.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Updated forecast information utilized in the May monthly drought outlook necessitated some changes to the seasonal drought outlook for May - July 2025. Due to short term forecasts favoring extremely heavy rainfall across the central and southern Plains, the seasonal outlook was updated to reflect a potential for improvements, consistent with the monthly outlook. Elsewhere, while the monthly outlook depicts a potential for drought persistence and expansion across the Southeast, these degradations are likely to be short term in nature. Therefore, the improvements through July indicated on the seasonal outlook have been preserved in this update.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Our drought tendency forecast through the end of July 2025 is divided into two sections across the contiguous United States, on either side of a line extending from Lake Michigan to central Illinois to the Gulf Coast. To the east, existing areas of drought are expected to improve or be removed completely by the end of the period. Most of these areas are in or near the Atlantic Seaboard, where the 3-Month May-July 2025 outlook favors above-normal precipitation.



To the west of this line, existing drought areas are expected to persist or intensify across the Northwest, the Southwest, portions of the Rockies, much of the Plains, and parts of the adjacent Midwest. There are enhanced odds for subnormal May-July precipitation through almost all of these areas, prompting a forecast for expanding drought in adjacent areas of the Plains where drought is not yet depicted. The exception is across the southern and east-central Great Plains, where heavy precipitation during the last half of April may preclude eventual development even if May-July rainfall is below normal.



The May-July outlook slightly favors above-normal precipitation in parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. These areas are typically very dry during May and June, with a sharp increase in rainfall during July when the Southwest Monsoon normally kicks in. Therefore, the May-July outlook is almost entirely dependent on the early evolution of the Southwest Monsoon in July. Currently, entrenched drought is established in this region, and even if the monsoon starts off robustly, it likely won't bring sufficient amounts of rain to alter the drought depiction. During the ensuing months, there may be a better chance for improvement if the monsoon turns out to be unusually wet overall.



In Hawaii, drought areas on the Big Island are expected to persist, as is the case in most of the leeward sections of the remainder of the state. Precipitation is expected to be more robust in windward areas and over some of the larger cities, prompting forecasts for improvement or removal there. No drought development is forecast elsewhere across the state. Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands are expected to remain drought-free, although the abnormal dryness existing across the northern Virgin Islands will need to be monitored closely.



Forecaster: Richard Tinker



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: May 15, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion