In the updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO), a small improvement and removal area was added to parts of the Mid-Atlantic where heavy precipitation (near 2 inches, liquid equivalent) was observed during late January and the Feb-Mar-Apr outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. A larger area of the Mid-Atlantic was not included in this improvement due to consideration of long-term drought metrics such as large 6-month precipitation deficits.



Although the Monthly Drought Outlook favors improvement for parts of the eastern Carolinas, persistence was maintained in the updated SDO since the FMA outlook depicts elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities.



Based on an unusually wet early February forecast, the updated SDO calls for drought removal for St John and St Thomas of the U.S. Virgin Islands to be consistent with the Monthly Drought Outlook.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - In the updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO), a small improvement and removal area was added to parts of the Mid-Atlantic where heavy precipitation (near 2 inches, liquid equivalent) was observed during late January and the Feb-Mar-Apr outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. A larger area of the Mid-Atlantic was not included in this improvement due to consideration of long-term drought metrics such as large 6-month precipitation deficits.



Although the Monthly Drought Outlook favors improvement for parts of the eastern Carolinas, persistence was maintained in the updated SDO since the FMA outlook depicts elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities.



Based on an unusually wet early February forecast, the updated SDO calls for drought removal for St John and St Thomas of the U.S. Virgin Islands to be consistent with the Monthly Drought Outlook.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 4 weeks, widespread precipitation across the CONUS brought 1 to 2 class improvements over parts of the Southwest, Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the Tennessee Valley, and the isolated areas over the Great Lakes. However, overall drought expansion was observed due to widespread precipitation deficit across much of the CONUS. As of February 10, 2026, around 73% of area was covered with abnormal dryness (D0) to exceptional drought (D4) and nearly half (47%) of the CONUS were under drought conditions. Major droughts were mainly located in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West, South and Central Plains, Midwest and eastern tier of the CONUS.



Based on the March-April-May (MAM) outlook, drought removal and improvement are anticipated across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Midwest, Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys due to increased chances of above-normal precipitation during the period. However, snowpack remains below average for many of the above regions. This lack of adequate snow water would be a concern heading into the spring. Drought is predicted to persist and develop across portions of the Central Rockies, Southwest and Southern Great Plains with forecast below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across much of the regions. Drought persistence is favored across much of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast due to lack of wet signals in the outlooks, coupled with the favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge.



Two localized existing drought areas in Mainland Alaska are expected to persist due to lack of wet signals in forecast, together with a dry climatology for the MAM period. A favorable wet pattern is predicted across the Hawaiian Islands where continued drought removal and improvement are anticipated. Parts of Puerto Rico are experiencing abnormal dryness, but continued drought-free conditions are likely due to forecast equal chances of below normal, near-normal and above-normal precipitation with the area transitioning to wet rainy season later in the period. Continued drought-free conditions are forecast for St John, St Thomas and St Croix of the U.S. Virgin Islands with the same reasoning as Puerto Rico.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 19, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion