The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook underwent only minor revisions, incorporating a slight expansion of anticipated drought improvement or development across portions of the Northern Rockies, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Midwest.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook underwent only minor revisions, incorporating a slight expansion of anticipated drought improvement or development across portions of the Northern Rockies, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Midwest.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - As of September 9, 2025, the US Drought Monitor (USDM) indicated that 36% of the contiguous United States (CONUS) was experiencing moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4), with an additional 24% classified as abnormally dry. Extensive long-term drought conditions were primarily concentrated in the western CONUS. Conversely, abnormally dry conditions and drought (D0 to D3) have rapidly emerged across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valleys, and the Northeast, attributed to significant rainfall deficits since early August. The preceding week maintained a similar arid pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, suggesting anticipated drought expansion and degradation in this region. The western CONUS presented a mixed scenario, observing both one-to-two class improvements and degradations within the past 30 days.



For the October-November-December (OND) season, drought improvement is projected for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northeast, supported by forecasts of near to above-normal precipitation and a favorable period for soil moisture replenishment. Persistence or improvement is also probable for existing drought in parts of the Southeast, given predicted near to above-normal precipitation for the OND season. Persistence is forecast for the remaining existing drought across much of the western half of the CONUS, portions of the Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. Furthermore, potential drought development is anticipated across much of the Southern Region and much of Alabama, parts of northwestern Georgia and central Tennessee as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monthly and seasonal outlooks favor near to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures in these areas.



Drought-free conditions are anticipated for Alaska, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while persistence and improvement are favored for parts of Hawaii.



Forecaster: Yun Fan



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 16, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion