Since the official seasonal drought outlook (SDO) for December-January-February (DJF) was released on November 21, short-range to monthly precipitation outlooks have shifted toward a wetter pattern across portions of the southern U.S. from the Southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast. Despite the wetter than average precipitation outlooks over various periods during December, drought persistence is still favored by the end of February, as La Nina is predicted to develop by the end of December 2024 and into January 2025. In locations that have experienced some drought removal in recent weeks in the Florida Panhandle, and those in other locations across the south-central U.S. that may experience some short-term improvement during December, drought may possibly redevelop. In inland portions of southern California, antecedent soil moisture and high chances for a warmer and drier than average December favor some drought development. In the central Appalachians, recent improvements to soil moisture have resulted in some modest improvements in the drought depiction. A favorable synoptic pattern is set up to provide periods of lake effect snow through early December, which may improve conditions further, and a somewhat favorable precipitation outlook and a weak La Nina suggest these improvements could remain through the end of February.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - Since the official seasonal drought outlook (SDO) for December-January-February (DJF) was released on November 21, short-range to monthly precipitation outlooks have shifted toward a wetter pattern across portions of the southern U.S. from the Southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast. Despite the wetter than average precipitation outlooks over various periods during December, drought persistence is still favored by the end of February, as La Nina is predicted to develop by the end of December 2024 and into January 2025. In locations that have experienced some drought removal in recent weeks in the Florida Panhandle, and those in other locations across the south-central U.S. that may experience some short-term improvement during December, drought may possibly redevelop. In inland portions of southern California, antecedent soil moisture and high chances for a warmer and drier than average December favor some drought development. In the central Appalachians, recent improvements to soil moisture have resulted in some modest improvements in the drought depiction. A favorable synoptic pattern is set up to provide periods of lake effect snow through early December, which may improve conditions further, and a somewhat favorable precipitation outlook and a weak La Nina suggest these improvements could remain through the end of February.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Since the November-December-January Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) released in mid-October, marked improvements to drought conditions have occurred across central portions of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and parts of the Pacific Northwest, particularly since the start of November. This has been welcomed relief for many, given October was one of the driest on record for much of the CONUS. Unfortunately, drought conditions continued to expand in coverage or worsen across large areas of the Southwest, Northern Plains, Texas, and the eastern CONUS.



Looking forward to the December-January-February (DJF) SDO, La Niña conditions (cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean) are forecast to develop through the first one to two months of the period. This typically favors a northward shifted mean storm track across North America leading to cooler and wetter conditions on average across the northern tier of the CONUS and warmer and drier conditions across the southern tier. However, the event is likely to be weak, thereby allowing other shorter-term climate modes to potentially cause increased variability throughout the season that may offset the average pattern that is typical with La Niña.



Drought is forecast to improve across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, associated with wet conditions leading up to the DJF season and the favored development of La Niña. Although the southwestern CONUS is entering into its winter rainy season, La Niña conditions are likely to offset this signal, leading to broad drought persistence and even some development in southern Arizona, where Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks favor higher odds of above average temperatures and below normal precipitation. Drought persistence is favored for much of the Great Plains, with some development also favored across parts of Texas, given the antecedent conditions and DJF being a drier time of year. The DJF precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation odds across much of Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the Ohio Valley. Conversely, drought persistence is favored across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South, where heavy precipitation leading up to the start of December is likely to offset the longer-term warm and dry signals through at least the end of 2024. Drought persistence is also favored in the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast, where antecedent conditions are very dry and precipitation signals are lacking, but the cooler time of year offers some potential for soil moisture recharge when these regions do get precipitation.



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: December 19, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion