The updated seasonal drought outlook (sdo) shows drought development over portions of the Pacific Northwest and central California, based on the monthly drought outlook released today, May 31st. Based on recent precipitation and the June 2025 precipitation outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, drought removal is now forecast for the south-central High Plains.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - The updated seasonal drought outlook (sdo) shows drought development over portions of the Pacific Northwest and central California, based on the monthly drought outlook released today, May 31st. Based on recent precipitation and the June 2025 precipitation outlook favoring above-normal precipitation, drought removal is now forecast for the south-central High Plains.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Latest Seasonal Assessment - The Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) for June-July-August (JJA) 2025 favors widespread improvement/removal of drought conditions over the eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) due to a combination of factors. Frontal systems have chipped away at the drought in the Northeast and Southeast this spring, culminating in the very recent passage of a slow-moving mid-level cutoff low and near-surface occluded front which delivered soaking rains to these areas. The approach of the Florida rainy season should bring an end to the drought over that state. Only the largest longer-term precipitation deficits may remain in relatively small areas across the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the summer.



For the High Plains and Midwest, drought persistence is favored in addition to new drought development, with CPC's monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks generally favoring elevated odds of warmer-than-normal summer temperatures, and either drier-than-normal conditions or Equal Chances (EC). In the absence of a strong wet signal at monthly and seasonal time-scales, drought persistence is considered the most likely scenario. In the Western and Southern regions, odds strongly favor drought persistence. One possible exception is the monsoon region of the Southwest, which normally starts to ramp up near the start of July. Even though CPC's seasonal precipitation outlook shows a weak tilt in the odds towards wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, dynamical and statistical models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. is unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.



Outside the Lower 48 states, no drought is expected to develop in Alaska, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. Virgin Islands. In Hawaii, ENSO-neutral conditions and the current dry season favor a typical trade wind pattern, with rainfall along the windward slopes of the islands, and a notable lack of rainfall along the leeward slopes. Persistence of drought is favored.



Forecaster: Anthony Artusa



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 19, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion