Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

Outlooks
   Drought Discussion
   Archive
   U.S. Monthly Temp.
      & Prec.

   U.S. Seasonal Temp.
     & Prec.

   Verification

Monitoring and Data
   GIS Data
   U.S. Weekly Drought       Monitor
   Drought
   Soil Moisture

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

 
HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook
 
 
 
 
 
United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge
(Click on image to enlarge)
 
PDF Version of Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic Adobe PDF Reader
 

Due to a wet pattern during late December across the western CONUS, and the monthly drought outlook favoring improvement, the persistence in the seasonal drought outlook was modified to depict improvement (D2-D4 areas) and removal (D1 areas) across parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and California.





Updated Seasonal Assessment - Due to a wet pattern during late December across the western CONUS, and the monthly drought outlook favoring improvement, the persistence in the seasonal drought outlook was modified to depict improvement (D2-D4 areas) and removal (D1 areas) across parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and California.





Latest Seasonal Assessment - ´╗┐During the past month, increased storminess across the West brought some limited drought relief, though long term drought conditions continue to blanket nearly 94 percent of the Western Climate Region. A mid-December series of storms has started to erode the snowpack deficits across the Cascades and Sierra Nevadas, and further storminess through the end of December may help to erode some of the most severe drought conditions. In contrast, drought and abnormal dryness expanded considerably across the south-central U.S. and the Southeast, as persistent ridging promoted dry conditions and above-average temperatures. During the first three months of 2022 (JFM), the pattern across North America is likely to be strongly influenced by ongoing La Niña conditions, which typically favor an active pattern and below-normal temperatures across the Northwest and north-central CONUS, and abnormally dry, warm conditions across the southern tier of states. The CPC January and JFM temperature and precipitation outlooks broadly reflect this signal, with a potential for the dry signal typically observed across California being suppressed further south than it is during typical La Niña events. Therefore, drought improvement is favored for much of coastal central and northern California and the Sierra Nevadas, while persistence is maintained across the San Joaquin Valley which relies more on Spring snowmelt for moisture. Mid-December through the end of March is a wet time of year for California which also supports improvement. Drought improvement is also favored for the Northwest, northern Rockies, the upper Midwest, and New England, while seasonable dryness and cold favor persistence of existing drought areas across the High Plains. Across the southern tier, additional drought expansion is favored for the interior Southwest and much of Texas, while short term wetness may spark some improvements across the lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread drought development is likely across the Southeast, with drought conditions possibly sneaking northward into the mid-Atlantic despite seasonably low moisture requirements. No drought is currently present or forecast to develop across Alaska, while enhanced trade winds and periodic troughing associated with La Niña conditions favors drought reductions for Hawaii. Drought conditions have been slowly expanding across Puerto Rico, and this trend is favored to continue through the end of March.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Outlook issued: January 20, 2022 at 8:30 AM EST



Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion

 


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities