|
GTH Outlook Map and Data
|
Last Updated -
02/04/25
|
|
|
 
|
GTH Outlook Discussion
|
Last Updated -
02/04/25
|
Valid -
02/12/25 - 02/25/25
|
The RMM index depicts an active MJO across the Eastern Hemisphere, with the enhanced phase propagating from the Indian Ocean to the far Western Pacific (phase 6), aided in part by constructive interference with the low frequency La Nina base state. The GEFS and ECENS favor continued propagation of the MJO into the Western Hemisphere by mid-February, although there is more uncertainty regarding its amplitude as it destructively interferes with suppressed convection near the Date Line. However, the global upper-level velocity potential field derived from both models indicates enhanced divergence aloft reaching the Americas during week-2. The ongoing La Nina supports continued enhanced convection across the Maritime Continent and far Western Pacific, along with suppressed convection over parts of Africa and the Indian Ocean. The ECENS depicts a more robust eastward propagation of the suppressed phase of the MJO by week-3, with increased destructive interference with the low frequency enhanced convective signal across the Maritime Continent compared to the GEFS.
Several Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have developed across the climatologically active areas over the southern Indian Ocean and southwestern Pacific. TC Faida (1/28) formed across the south-central Indian Ocean (11 deg S, 76 deg E) and is weakening as it approaches the east coast of Madagascar. TC Elvis (1/29) was a short-lived system that brought flooding to southwestern portions of Madagascar. TCs Vince (2/1) and Taliah (2/2) formed across the eastern Indian Ocean and are forecast to track west to west-southwestward over the next week. Across the southwestern Pacific, TC Fifteen developed just to the north of New Caledonia (20 deg S, 166 deg E) and is expected to dissipate in the next few days as it tracks eastward. Another system in the same area (Invest 92P) is being closely monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for potential TC development.
During weeks 2 and 3, the highest chances for additional TC development (40-60 percent) are across the northern coast of Australia including the Kimberley Coast, Gulf of Carpentaria, and the Coral Sea consistent with the enhanced convection aloft due to La Nina and the active seasonal climatology. During week-3, 20-40 percent chances extend to the Date Line. Higher probabilities were considered, but the stronger suppressed phase of the MJO in the ECENS reduces confidence. While more suppressed convection aloft is forecast to build into the Indian Ocean, the GEFS and ECENS ensembles continue to depict elevated potential for additional TCs to develop. Therefore, a 20-40 percent chance of TC formation is highlighted across the Mozambique Channel and western Indian Ocean for week-2.
The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on the historical skill weighted blend of the GEFS, CFS, and ECMWF ensemble system guidance, MJO precipitation composites for phases 6, 7, and 8, and La Nina composites. High probabilities (greater than 80 percent) for above-normal rainfall are indicated over portions of Central and northern South America for week-2 given the predicted placement of the enhanced convective envelope, with elevated probabilities (greater than 65 percent) continuing into week-3. There is also moderate to high confidence regarding increased potential for above-normal rainfall across the Western Pacific and northern Australia and below-normal rainfall across the equatorial Central Pacific tied to La Nina. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii, the southeastern U.S., and eastern Brazil.
For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook.
|
Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays.
At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly
released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact
Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is
Archived and available on the website.
|
Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal
temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation
integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are
depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical
development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability
intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following
Wednesday.
Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across
the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other
issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.
|
Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational
climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),
strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves
(ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).
|
Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an
assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product.
Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems.
Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.
|
Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
- Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
- Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
- Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
|
Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)],
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center
for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.
|
Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National
Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross,
USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors),
international weather services and various media meteorologists.
Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater
Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from
October 2011 through March 2012.
|
Product Resources
|
Feedback and Questions
|
|