NOAA's 45th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

Oral session program

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 1:00 – 4:10 PM
Session 1: ENSO Applications
01:00 – 01:20	Comparing Niño 3.4 evolution in NMME forecasts and observations Mike Tippett, Columbia University and Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/CPC
01:20 – 01:40	The Importance of Central Pacific Meridional Heat Advection to the Development of ENSO Caihong Wen, Arun Kumar, Michelle L'Heureux, Yan Xue, Emily Becker, NOAA/CPC, Innovim, Office of Science and Technology Integration, NWS/NOAA, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science/CIMAS, University of Miami
01:40 – 02:00	A dipole Index for ENSO John Nielsen-Gammon,Scott Meyer, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
02:00 – 02:20	Uncoupled El Nino Warming Zeng-Zhen HuMichael J. McPhaden, Arun Kumar, Jin-Yi Yu, Nathaniel C. Johnson, NOAA/CPC, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
02:20 – 02:40	Do Asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states? Sarah Larson, Kathy Pegion, Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University
Session 2: Applications of Modern Technology
02:50 – 03:10	S2S Prediction With A Global Deep-Learning Weather Prediction Model Jonathan Weyn (Invited) Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington
03:10 – 03:30	Utilizing Interpretable Neural Networks for Subseasonal Prediction –Not Available Kirsten Mayer (Invited)1 ,Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
03:30 – 03:50	Pangeo Use Case: Analyzing Initialized Climate Prediction System Datasets with climpred –Not available Anderson Banihirwe (Invited),Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, The National Center for Atmospheric Research
03:50 – 04:10	Does Machine Learning Based Multi-Model Ensemble Methods Add Value over Existing Methods? Nachiketa Acharya,International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades NY

Wednesday, October 21, 2020 1:00 – 4:10 PM
Session 3: Statistical Methods To Improve Climate Analysis and Predictions
1:00 – 1:20	On the Challenge of Defining Normal Precipitation with Medians Cory Baggett, Emerson LaJoie, NOAA/CPC, Innovim
1:20 – 1:40	New calibration methods for extreme precipitation probabilities in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models Chiara Lepore, Michael K. Tippett, Michelle L’Heureux, Melissa Ou, Laura Ciasto, LDEO, Columbia University, APAM, Columbia University, NOAA/CPC
1:40 – 2:00	Temporal disaggregation of seasonal temperature forecasts from Bayesian Joint Probability calibrarted NMME to predict daily extremes Johnna Infanti, Dan Collins, Sarah Strazzo, Andrew Schepen, QJ Wang, NOAA/CPC, Innovim, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, CSIRO, University of Melbourne
2:00 – 2:20	Would Lagged Ensembles Increase Extended-range Forecast Skill? Mingyue Chen,Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, NOAA/CPC
Session 4: Hydroclimate Predictions
2:30 – 2:50	Prediction of California’s most significant droughts Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources
2:50 – 3:10	Using Seasonal Outlooks to Forecast Probabilistic Drought Indices in the Intermountain West –Not Available Becky Bolinger, Colorado Climate Center
3:10 – 3:30	Application of the National Water Model (NWM) for US Drought Monitoring: An Overview of CPC Activities Hailan Wang, Li Xu, Muthuvel Chelliah, David DeWitt, NOAA/CPC, Innovim
3:30 – 3:50	Predicting Rapid Changes in Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Continental US –Not Available David Lornez, Jason Otkin, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison
3:50 – 4:10	Evaluation of the subseasonal forecast skill of atmospheric river floods in coastal Western U.S. watersheds Qian Cao, Shraddhanand Shukla, Michael J. DeFlorio, F. Martin Ralph, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, University of California, Santa Barbara, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California

Thursday, October 22, 2020 1:00 – 4:30 PM
Session 5: Extratropical Climate Variability
1:00 – 1:20	Links between the Pacific Decadal Precession and North American Climate Extremes Jason Furtado, Bruce T. Anderson, Matthew H. Rogers, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University
1:20 – 1:40	Empirical Predictions of Atmospheric Rivers on Subseasonal Timescales Laura Ciasto, Daniel S. Harnos, Cory F. Baggett, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Kyle M. Nardi, NOAA/CPC, Innovim, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
1:40 – 2:00	Marine Heat Waves in the Eastern North Pacific: Characteristics and Causes Katie Kohlman, Seth Madden, Tom Murphree, Pennsylvania State University, York School, Naval Postgraduate School
2:00 – 2:20	An Internal Atmospheric Process Determining Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Melting in the Next Three Decades: Lessons Learned from Five Large Ensembles and multiple CMIP5 climate simulations Dániel Topál, Qinghua Ding, Jonathan Mitchell, Ian Baxter, Mátyás Herein, Tímea Haszpra, Rui Luo, Qingquan Li, Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eotv € os Lor € ánd University, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Eotv € os Lor € ánd University, Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University
Session 6: Tropical Extremes
2:30 – 2:50	Summertime Stationary Waves Integrate Tropical and Extratropical Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity Zhuo Wang, Gan Zhang, Timothy J. Dunkerton, Fei-Fei Jin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Northwest Research Associates, Inc., Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa
2:50 – 3:10	The New Probabilistic Global Tropics Hazard Outlook at CPC: Weeks 2 and 3 Lindsey Long, Nicholas Novella, Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/CPC, Innovim
3:10 – 3:30	The Record-Breaking 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University
3:30 – 3:50	How does the MJO affect extreme rainfall around the Tropics? Carl Schreck, NCSU/NCICS/CISESS
3:50 – 4:10	Rainfall and sea level variability in the face of changing El Niño: Evidence from the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands Rashed Chowdhury, P-S Chu, and James T. Potemra, Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii at Manoa
4:10 – 4:30	The skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble in predicting Sahel rainfall Alessandra Giannini, A. Ali, C. P. Kelley, B. L. Lamptey, B. Minoungou, O. Ndiaye, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, Centre Régional AGRHYMET, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development, Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de laMétéorologie