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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10

Canonical Correlation Forecast for Nino 3.4 Region: Historical

MARCH 2024

FIGURE F1.   Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly prediction for the central Pacific (5N to 5S, 120W to 170W (Barnston and Ropelewski, 1992,i J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345)). The three plots on the left are, from top to bottom, the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month lead seasonal forecasts from the past 12 months plus the current month. The triangles in each plot are the observed SST anomaly through the latest available season. The lines at the mid-points of the forecast error bars represent the real-time CCA predictions based on the anomalies of quasi-global sea level pressure, the anomalies of tropical Pacific SST, and heat content of the upper 300 meters of the near-equator tropical Pacific (10S to 10N). The vertical lines represent the two standard deviation error bars for the predictions based on past performance. The three plots on the right are skill values for the corresponding seasons, from the correlations of the predicted and observed SST in the prior 10 years of simulated real-time forecasts. Skill values show a clear annual cycle and are inversely proportional to the length of the error bars depicted in the forecast time series.