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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10

NCEP Coupled Model Forecasts of Eq. Pac. SST and Anomalies

AUGUST 2024

FIGURE F3.  Predicted 3-month average sea surface temperature (left) and anomalies (right) from the NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2). The forecasts consist of 40 forecast members. Contour interval is 1C, with additional contours for 0.5C and -0.5C. Negative anomalies are indicated by dashed contours.