The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F11. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F12, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66%
chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55%
During May, El Niño was
reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The monthly ENSO indices were +0.8C in
Niño-4, +0.7C in Niño-3.4, +0.6C in Niño-3, and +0.2C in Niño-1+2 regions (Table T2).
Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180-100W) were nearly
average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of
the month in association with a downwelling Kelvin
wave. Thus, anomalies remained positive
at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies
evident in the eastern Pacific (Fig. T17).
Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak,
enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line (Fig. T25). Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over
the western tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig.
T20), and upper-level wind anomalies
were easterly over the western and east-central Pacific (Fig. T21). Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions
were consistent with El Niño.
The combined averages in the
IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter
2019-20, but individual models span ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally
+0.0C to +1.0C; Figs. F1-F12).
The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower
chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal
variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky
picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin
wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer
2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter
Weekly updates of oceanic and
atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).