The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F11. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F12, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60% chance), continuing
through summer 2020 (~50% chance).
During January 2020, near- to above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident
across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The monthly Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were
near average (+0.2°C to 0.0°C), while the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were
warmer at +1.0°C and +0.5°C, respectively (Table
After decreasing in early to mid January, positive equatorial subsurface
temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) slightly increased during
the latter part of the month.
Temperatures remained above average across most of the subsurface ocean,
reaching ~150m depth in the central Pacific (Fig. T17). During the month, low-level westerly wind
anomalies persisted over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T20),
while upper-level winds were mostly westerly over the east-central and eastern
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T21).
Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced
around the Date Line (Fig. T25).
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near
zero. Overall, the combined oceanic and
atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.
majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume continue to mostly favor ENSO-neutral
(Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere
summer (Figs. F1-F12).
The forecaster consensus predicts the Niño-3.4 index will be at or
slightly above +0.5°C for the January – March 2020 season, but then slightly
favors ENSO-neutral for the February – April 2020 season. While it is expected that oceanic
temperatures will remain elevated in the near term, particularly in the western
and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, most models predict a gradual decrease in
Niño-3.4 SST anomalies into the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~60%
chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~50% chance).
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).