The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER
statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652)
are shown in Fig. F11. Niño 3.4
predictions are summarized in Fig. F12, provided by the Forecasting and
Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
A weak El Niño is likely to
continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and possibly
fall (50-55% chance).
Niño continued during March 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The monthly values
of the Niño3.4 and Niño4 indices were near +1.0°C, while the Niño3 value was +0.7°C (Table T2). The anomalous upper-ocean heat
content (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased during March but remained well
above average, as the above-average temperatures at depth peaked in early March
in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic
Kelvin wave (Fig. T17). Enhanced equatorial convection was
observed near the Date Line and in the western Pacific, while suppressed
convection prevailed over western Indonesia (Fig. T25). Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the
western Pacific Ocean during March. Meanwhile, upper-level winds were mostly
near average (Figs. T20, T21).
The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were negative
(Fig. T2 and Table T1). Overall,
these features are consistent with a weak El Niño.
majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the remainder of 2019 (Figs. F1-F12). Most forecasters expect SST anomalies in the
Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C for at least the next several seasons, indicating a weak El Niño. However, because forecasts made
during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will
persist through fall is currently 50-55%.
In summary, a weak El Niño is likely
to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (65% chance) and
possibly fall (50-55% chance).
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).