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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
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About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

ENSO-CLIPER Model
All Nino Regions & SOI  F9

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F10


Forecast Forum

AUGUST 2022

EL NINO /SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.   Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Outlook:

 

La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023.

 

Discussion:

 

During August, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The largest SST anomalies were evident in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions, with the monthly values reaching -1.0C and -0.9C, respectively (Table T2).  Negative subsurface temperature anomalies were mostly unchanged during the month, reflecting the dominance of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. T17).  Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across most of the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 & T21).  Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. T25). Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 (Figs. F1-F12).  There is an interesting split in the dynamical versus statistical model forecasts, with the latter set suggesting La Niña will persist longer, through January-March 2023.  At this time, the forecaster consensus sides with the statistical models, although there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last and when it will transition to ENSO-neutral (56% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during February-April 2023).  In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

 


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