NOAA's 47th Oral Session Program

Oral Session Program

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Tuesday, October 25, 2022 9:10 – 5:10 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
7:30 – 9:10 am	Registration, Welcoming Remarks, and Keynote Speech
Session 1 – ENSO
9:10 – 9:30 am	How Skillful are Collective ENSO Predictions Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/CPC; Rohan Schroff, Cornell University; and Michael Tippett, Columbia University
9:30 – 9:50 am	The role of the Western North Pacific (WNP) precursor in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development under a warming climate Krishna Borhara, Utah State University; S. Y. Simon Wang, Utah State University; and Boniface Fosu, Mississippi State University
9:50 – 10:10 am	Multi-year variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s Jiale Lou, NOAA/CIRES; Matthew Newman and Andrew Hoell, NOAA/PSL
10:10 – 10:30 am	Break
Session 2 – Seasonal Predictions
10:30 – 10:50 am	Consolidation of Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Tools at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center Daniel Barandiaran, NOAA/CPC and Stephen Baxter, NWS Climate Services Branch
10:50 – 11:10 am	Analyzing a potential upgrade of the CPC consolidated seasonal forecast tool Michael Goss, NOAA/CPC, Daniel Barandiaran, Cory Baggett, and Mike Halpert, NOAA/CPC
11:10 – 11:30 am	Decadal Trend Aware Calibration of the NMME Dan Collins,, NOAA/CPC, Emerson LaJoie and Johnna Infanti, NOAA/CPC
11:30 – 11:50 am	An Updated NMME-based Hybrid Prediction Scheme for Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity Daniel Harnos, NOAA/CPC, Matthew Rosencrans and Hui Wang, NOAA/CPC
11:50 – 12:10 pm	Correlational Satellite Study of Ocean-Cryosphere Interactions with Climate Variability in Coupled Climate System to Develop Numerical Ocean-Cryosphere Climate Variability Prediction Model (NOC-CVPM) over the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector Virendra Goswami, IIT & Environment and Peace Foundation
12:10 – 1:30 pm	Lunch
Session 3 – Subseasonal Predictions
1:30 – 1:50 pm	The hybrid SST/Soil moisture tool for Weeks 3-4 extreme heat forecasting at the CPC Evan Oswald, NOAA/CPC and Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/CPC Virtual
1:50 – 2:10 pm	Transition of CPC's Global Tropics Hazard Outlook to Weeks 2 and 3 Lindsey Long, NOAA/CPC, Nicholas Novella and Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/CPC
2:10 – 2:30 pm	Subseasonal Prediction of U.S. Drought in NOAA GEFSv12 Reforecasts Hailan Wang, NOAA/CPC, Li Xu, Andrew Badger, and David DeWitt, NOAA/CPC, and Mike Barlage and Helin Wei, NOAA/EMC
2:30 – 2:50 pm	Prediction and Impacts of 14-day Extreme Precipitation Periods within the CONUS Melanie Schroers, University of Oklahoma and Elinor Martin, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Virtual
2:50 – 3:10 pm	Discussion
3:10 – 3:30 pm	Break
Session 4 – Attributions Detection and Diagnostics, Part I
3:30 – 3:50 pm	Rapid development of ENSO-related seasonal forecast errors Matt Newman, NOAA/PSL; Jon Beverley, CIRES/University of Colorado; and NOAA/PSL and Andrew Hoell, NOAA/PSL
3:50 – 4:10 pm	Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill Arun Kumar, NOAA/CPC; Lantao Sun and James W. Hurrell, Colorado State University; Martin P. Hoerling and Andrew Hoell, NOAA/PSL; Jadwiga H. Richter, NCAR; Arun Kumar, NOAA/CPC
4:10 – 4:30 pm	The Impact of Tropical SST Variability on the Northern Hemisphere Circumglobal Teleconnection Pattern Yen-Heng Lin, Northern Gulf Institute and Boniface Fosu, Mississippi State University & Northern Gulf Institute
4:30 – 4:50 pm	Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak Jason Furtado, University of Oklahoma and Oliver T. Millin, University of Oklahoma
4:50 – 5:10 pm	2021 Texas Cold Snap: Manifestation of Natural Variability and a Recent Warming Trend Pei-Chun Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Hao-Jhe Hong, Ying-Ting Chen, Yu-Luen Chen, and Wan-Ling Tseng, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
5:30 – 7:30 pm	Poster Session — Ice Breaker (Light refreshments served)
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022 8:30 am – 5:10 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
7:30 – 8:30 am	Registration
Session 4 – Attributions Detection and Diagnostics, Part II
8:30 – 8:50 am	Investigating the role of convectively coupled equatorial waves in subseasonal tropical predictions Juliana Dias, NOAA/PSL, Maria Gehne, CIRES & University of Colorado, and George Kiladis, NOAA/PSL
8:50 – 9:10 am	Global and regional discrepancies between early 20th century coastal air and sea-surface temperature detected by a coupled energy-balance analysis Duo Chan, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Geoffrey Gebbie, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Peter Huybers, Harvard University Virtual
9:10 – 9:30 am	Compensation between Poleward Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in CMIP6 Climate Simulations Prajvala Kurtakoti, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Wilbert Weijer and Milena Veneziani, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Tarun Verma, Princeton University, and Phil Rasch, University of Washington
9:30 – 9:50 am	Implications of AMOC base-state to the mode of variability of the US summer precipitation Christopher Sala, Pennsylvania State University, Yifei Fan and Dr. Laifang Li, Pennsylvania State University Virtual
9:50 – 10:10 am	Upper ocean diurnal cycle in CFS Jack Reeves Eyre, NOAA/CPC, Jieshun Zhu, Arun Kumar, and Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC
10:10 – 10:30 am	Break
Session 5 – Observations Model Analysis and Prediction, Part I
10:30 – 10:50 am	A New GFSv15 based Climate Model Dataset and Its Application to Understanding Climate Variability, and Predictability Tao Zhang, ESSIC & NOAA/CPC, and Bhaskar Jha, NOAA/CPC & ERT, Jieshun Zhu, Arun Kumar, and Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC, Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA/PSL, Joseph J. Barsugli and Xiao-Wei Quan, NOAA/PSL & CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
10:50 – 11:10 am	Idealized Simulation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Using the Single-column Unified Forecast System I-Kuan Hu, NOAA/CIRES, Stefan Tulich and Sara Michelson, CIRES & NOAA/PSL, George Kiladis, Juliana Dias, and Jian-Wen Bao, NOAA/PSL
11:10 – 11:30 am	Circulation Study: On the Relationship of Temperature and Precipitation with 500-hPa Heights at the Week 3–4 timescale Cory Baggett, NOAA/CPC, Emerson LaJoie, Johnna Infanti, and Michael Goss, NOAA/CPC
11:30 – 11:50 am	A New Processing System for the SHEF Daily Precipitation Reports Ping-Ping Xie, NOAA/CPC, Shaorong Wu, Thomas Collow, Ryan Bolt, Bert Katz and Wei Shi, NOAA/CPC
11:50 – 12:10 am	Land use analysis of Kumira-Hathazari region of Chittagong, Bangladesh from MODIS land cover from 2005 to 2020 Md. Sajidul Hossain, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Nusrat Nasrin Khan, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Virtual
12:10 – 1:30 pm	Lunch
Session 5 – Observations Model Analysis and Prediction, Part II
1:30 – 1:50 pm	Trends from Reanalyses: Progress over the last 10 years Wesley Ebisuzaki, NOAA/CPC, Leigh Zhang and Arun Kumar, NOAA/CPC, Jeffrey Whitaker, NOAA/PSD, and Jack Woollen, NOAA/EMC
1:50 – 2:10 pm	Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021 Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Steven G. Bowen, Aon, Christina M. Patricola, Iowa State University, and Michael M. Bell, Colorado State University
2:10 – 2:30 pm	Next Generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NG-GODAS): reanalysis and applications Jieshun Zhu, NOAA/CPC, Shastri Paturi and Guillaume Vernieres, NOAA/EMC, Travis Sluka, UCAR, Arun Kumar and Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC Virtual
2:30 – 2:50 pm	Development of a Multi-physics Forecast System for the Sub-seasonal Scale Prediction Manpreet Kaur, Goethe University Frankfurt Am Main, Susmitha Joseph, R. Phani, R Mandal, A Dey, and A. K. Sahai, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune Virtual
2:50 – 3:10 pm	The Development of UFS Coupled GEFS for Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/CPC, Bing Fu, Hong Guan, Bo Yang, Wei Li, Jiayi Peng, Xianwu Xue, Sanghoon Shin, a5nd Dingchen Hou, NOAA/EMC, Eric Sinsky, NOAA/CPC, Phillip Pegion, NOAA/PSL, Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland Virtual
3:10 – 3:30 pm	Improving NWS Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast with Unified Forecast System: Highlights of Modeling and Analysis Results Yan Xue, NOAA/OSTI, Avichal Mehra, Fanglin Yang, Michael Barlage, Yuejian Zhu, and Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/EMC, Cristiana Stan, Jim Kinter, George Mason University, Jeff Whitaker, NOAA/PSL, Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC, and Deepthi Achuthavarier, NWS/OSTI
3:30 – 3:50 pm	Break
Session 6 – Applications of Modern Technologies to S2S Forecasting, Part I
3:50 – 4:10 pm	The Development of a Machine Learning-based Probabilistic Seasonal Outlook for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Nachiketa Acharya, CIRES, University of Colorado & NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Kyle Joseph Chen Hall, NOAA/CIRES and Andrew Hoell, NOAA/PSL
4:10 – 4:30 pm	Development of neural networks to statistically post-process sub-seasonal precipitation accumulation forecasts over the contiguous United States, Rochelle Worsnop, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Laboratory Michael Scheuerer, Norwegian Computer Center, Thomas M.Hamill, IBM/Weather Company Virtual
4:30 – 4:50 pm	Post-Processing of Week 2 GEFSv12 Heat Forecasts via Neural Nets Greg Jennrich, NOAA/CPC & ERT, Li Xu, Evan Oswald, NOAA CPC & ERT, and Matt Rosencrans, NOAA/CPC
4:50 – 5:10 pm	Predictability of Summer Extreme Maximum Temperatures over Taiwan by using NOAA NCEP GEFSv12 Reforecast Products Murali Malasala Nageswararao, NOAA/EMC, Yuejian Zhu, and Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/EMC,and Meng-Shih Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan Virtual
5:10 – 6:00 pm	Networking — Dinner Follows
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Thursday, October 27, 2022 8:30 am – 5:30 pm EDT (UTC-4:00)
7:30 – 8:30 am	Registration
Session 6 – Applications of Modern Technologies to S2S Forecasting, Part II
8:30 – 8:50 am	Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Predictability using Artificial Neural Networks Marybeth Arcodia, Colorado State University and Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University
8:50 – 9:10 am	Improving Sub-seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks with Deep Learning Yun Fan, NOAA/CPC, Li Xu and Jon Gottschalck, NOAA/CPC
9:10 – 9:30 am	Evaluation and Bias Correction of S2S Reforecast Ensemble for Forecasting US Extreme Precipitation Events Devin McAfee, University of Oklahoma, Elinor R. Martin and Jason C. Furtado, University of Oklahoma
9:30 – 9:50 am	Advancing Machine Learning-Based Bias Correction Technique for Rainfall Estimation Over the Complex Terrain Region Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, NOAA/CPC, Raihan Sayeed Khan, Intel, and Wassila Thiaw, NOAA/CPC
9:50 – 10:10 am	Break
Session 7 – Improving Climate Services, Part I
10:10 – 10:30 am	An Improved Analysis of Daily Maximum and Minimum Surface Air Temperature over the Global Land Wanqiu Wang, NOAA/CPC,Pingping Xie, Yanjuan Guo, Shaorong Wu, and Wei Shi, NOAA/CPC
10:30 – 10:50 am	The Recent Development of Global Drought Monitor and Outlook Li Xu, NOAA/CPC, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Yun Fan, and Wassila Thiaw, NOAA/CPC
10:50 – 11:10 am	Verification of a Drought Prediction System over the Horn of Africa Miliaritiana Robjhon, NOAA/CPC, Li Xu, Wassila Thiaw, and Yun Fan, NOAA/CPC
11:10 – 11:30 am	Understanding the Connection between Soil Moisture and Safe Water Access Using Earth Observations Farah Nusrat, University of Rhode Island, Joseph Goodwill, Jason Parent, Kristin Johnson and Ali Shafqat Akanda, University of Rhode Island, Ashraful Islam Khan, Md. Taufiqul Islam, and Firdausi Qadri, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
11:30 – 11:50 am	Applying Climatology for Strategic Planning: The 14 WS Capabilities in Eastern Europe Christina Maurin, USAF 14th Weather Squadron Justyn Jackson, Kevin Havener, Patrick Johnston, Bret Kerstetter, Stephanie Smith, Robert Falvey, and William Henning, USAF 14th Weather Squadron
11:50 – 12:10 pm	Machine learning based Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover and Land Surface Temperature using Landsat imagery for Rajshahi, Bangladesh using Google Earth Engine Md Shihab Uddin, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, and Indronil Sarkar, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Virtual
12:10 – 1:30 pm	Lunch
Session 7 – Improving Climate Services, Part II
1:30 – 1:50 pm	Ohio River Forecast Center Support for the Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasts Abram DaSilva, NWS/OHRFC
1:50 – 2:10 pm	A Prototype Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation (FIRO) for Lake Conroe, TX — Application of NOAA/WPC's QPF and CPC's Outlooks in Reservoir Operational Modeling John Zhu, Texas Water Development Board and Nelun Fernando, Texas Water Development Board
2:10 – 2:30 pm	A Real Time Fire Weather 8–14 Day Outlook Tool Based on NCEP GEFS Mingyun Chen, NOAA/CPC, Wanqiu Wang and David DeWitt, NOAA/CPC
2:30 – 2:50 pm	Evaluation of a supply-chain climate model for its long-range temperature forecasting ability Wayne Bancroft, Retired
2:50 – 3:10 pm	NWS Climate Services Capabilities for Building a Climate Ready Nation Marina Timofeyeva, NWS Climate Services Branch, Stephen Baxter, Margaret Hurwitz, Jenna Meyers,Viviane Silva, and James Zdrojewski, NWS Climate Services Branch Virtual
3:10 – 3:30 pm	Break
Session 8 – Hydroclimate in the Western United States
3:30 – 3:50 pm	CPC's Experimental Water Year Outlook Tool Emerson LaJoie, NOAA/CPC
3:50 – 4:10 pm	Improving NWS Drought Messaging and Regional Collaboration Margaret Hurwitz, NWS Climate Services Branch, Stephen Baxter and Marina Timofeyeva, NWS Climate Services Branch
4:10 – 4:30 pm	Utilizing causal inference on single-model initial condition large ensembles for future Great Salt Lake predictability Siiri Bigalke, Utah State University, Simon Wang, Wei Zhang, and Yoshi Chikamoto, Utah State University
4:30 – 4:50 pm	Can dynamically downscaling the CFSv2 model improve operational sub-seasonal climate services? Jon Meyer, Utah Climate Center
4:50 – 5:10 pm	North Pacific High anomalies and the extreme pan-Western drought Matthew LaPlante, Utah State University and Shih-Yu Simon Wang, Utah State University
5:10 – 5:30 pm	Human Influence Increased the Risk of the 2021 Extreme Western U.S. Drought Grace Affram, Utah State University; Wei Zhang, Lawrence Hipps, and Cody Ratterman, Utah State University
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