Time |
Speaker or Event |
|
Title or Location |
Day 1: Monday, October 22, 2012 |
07:00-08:00 |
Registration & Continental Breakfast Location: Salons 3, 4, 6 |
08:00-08:20 |
Welcoming Remarks |
|
Mike Halpert & Chris
Kummerow |
Session 1: Annual Review of Weather & Climate
and Climate Operations |
Chair: Mike
Halpert (CPC) |
08:20-08:50 |
Randall Dole |
Keynote |
Identifying Causes of Weather and Climate Events To Improve
Predictions |
8:50-9:20 |
Michelle L'Heureux and Tony
Barnston |
Invited |
ENSO Overview |
9:20-9:40 |
Wassila M. Thiaw |
Invited |
Global Climate Overview of 2012 |
9:40-10:00 |
Melissa Ou |
Invited |
The hot and dry US Climate of 2012 |
10:00-10:20 |
Scott Handel |
Invited |
Recent Verification of CPC Extended Range Outlooks |
10:20-10:40 |
Morning Break |
|
Location: Atrium |
Chair:
Chris Kummerow (Colorado State) |
10:40-11:00 |
Jae Schemm |
Invited |
Hurricane season overview of 2012 |
11:00-11:20 |
Gregory Deemer |
Invited |
The Current State of Arctic Sea Ice: Trends, Variability,
and Implications for the Climate System |
11:20-11:40 |
Marina Timofeyeva |
|
Toward Improving NWS Local and Regional Climate Services |
11:40-1:00 |
Lunch (On Your Own) |
|
|
Session 2: The DYNAMO field campaign and the MJO |
Chair: Michelle L'Heureux (CPC) |
1:00-1:30 |
Eric Maloney |
Keynote |
Recent advances in understanding MJO Dynamics |
1:30-1:50 |
Meng-Pai Hung |
|
Intraseasonal air-sea fluxes in reanalyses and observations
during the DYNAMO period |
1:50-2:10 |
Joshua Xiouhua Fu |
|
Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
during DYNAMO/CINDY Period |
2:10-2:30 |
George Kiladis |
|
An OLR Based Index of the Madden Julian Oscillation |
2:30-2:50 |
Carl Schreck |
|
An MJO index for the Western Hemisphere |
2:50-3:10 |
Afternoon Break |
|
Location: Atrium (with refreshments) |
Session 3: Tropical variability and prediction |
Chair: S-Y Simon Wang |
3:10-3:30 |
Xingwen Jiang |
|
Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Monsoon by the NCEP CFSv2 |
3:30-3:50 |
Mingyue Chen |
|
SST Impacts on the Seasonal Precipitation over the Tropical
Indian Ocean |
3:50-4:10 |
Zeng-Zhen Hu |
|
Weakened interannual variability in the tropical Pacific
Ocean since 2000 |
4:10-4:30 |
Daniel Barandiaran |
|
The Missing CFSv2 Skill For Rainfall in the Sahel Region |
4:30-4:50 |
Hui Wang |
|
Time Scale of Oceanic Response to ENSO Estimated from
Simulations with the NCEP CFS |
4:50-5:10 |
Martin Schroeder |
|
Trend and Variability of Pineapple Express Events Depicted
by Seven Global Reanalysis Datasets |
6:00-8:00 |
Evening Icebreaker |
|
Location: Atrium (Cash bar and
Complimentary Appetizers) |
|
|
|
|
Day 2: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 |
Session 4:
Setting up an operational framework |
Chair: Marina Timofeyeva |
07:00-08:00 |
Continental Breakfast |
|
Location: Salons 3, 4, 6 |
08:00-08:20 |
Mike Charles |
|
Adopting a Collaborative Software Development Process in the
Scientific Community |
08:20-08:40 |
Jebb Q Stewart |
|
Introduction to the NOAA Earth Information System (NEIS) |
08:40-09:00 |
Marina Timofeyeva |
|
Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool to Better Serve
NOAA Staff and Users |
09:00-09:20 |
Cathy Smith |
|
Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) to allow
easy analysis and comparison of datasets |
09:20-9:40 |
Barbara Mayes Boustead |
|
ENSO, NAO, and Laura Ingalls Wilder: The Story of the
Hard Winter of 1880-81 |
9:40-10:00 |
Morning Break |
|
Location: Atrium |
Session 5: Prediction and attribution of high
impact weather and climate events |
Chair:
Indrani Pal |
10:00-10:20 |
Emily Becker |
|
Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and
predictability |
10:20-10:40 |
Imke Durre |
|
Monitoring Climatic Extremes over Global Land Areas with
GHCNDEX |
10:40-11:00 |
Bradfield Lyon |
|
Recurrent, Anomalous Circulation Patterns Associated with
Mongolian Summertime Rainfall Variability and “Dzud” Events |
11:00-11:20 |
Russ S. Schumacher |
|
Wet weeks in the warm season: Processes supporting
widespread multi-day heavy rainfall episodes |
11:20-11:40 |
Klaus Wolter |
|
Was the increased areal extent in U.S. drought conditions
predictable for 2012? |
11:40-1:00 |
Lunch (On Your Own) |
|
|
Session 6: Prediction and attribution of high
impact weather and climate events (cont'd) |
Chair: Jae Schemm |
1:00-1:20 |
Anthony Barnston |
|
Diagnostics and Flavors of U.S. summer heat waves; the
Summers of 2011 and 2012 in Historical Perspective |
1:20-1:40 |
Philip Pegion |
|
Factors in Seasonal to Interannual Variability of U.S.
Tornadic Activity |
1:40-2:00 |
Michael K. Tippett |
|
CFSv2 forecasts of a U.S. monthly tornado index |
2:00-2:20 |
Monika Barcikowska |
|
Changes in Tropical Cyclone activity for the Western North
Pacific during the last decades |
2:20-2:40 |
Philip Klotzbach |
|
ENSO, the MJO and Atlantic Basin Rapid Intensification |
2:40-3:00 |
Christopher Landsea |
|
Reanalysis of the Atlantic Hurricane Database - Results from
1851 to 1954 |
3:00-3:20 |
Afternoon Break |
|
Location: Atrium (with refreshments) |
Session 7: Forecast evaluation |
Chair:
Marina Timofeyeva |
3:20-3:40 |
Dan Gianotti |
|
Establishing Potential Predictability of U.S. Precipitation
Using Rain Gauge Data |
3:40-4:00 |
Peitao Peng |
|
A skill comparison among two versions of CFS and CPC’s
operational short-lead seasonal outlooks |
4:00-4:20 |
Debbie Hudson |
|
Impacts of pseudo-coupled data assimilation and ensemble
generation on intraseasonal forecast skill |
4:20-4:40 |
Thomas M Hamill |
|
MJO, ENSO, atmospheric blocking, and their relationships in
the 2nd-generation GEFS reforecasts |
4:40-5:00 |
David Meyer |
|
Impact of CFSv1 vs CFSv2 Forcing on Intraseasonal to
Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts |
6:00-8:00 |
Poster Event |
|
Location: Salon 2 (Cash Bar
& Complimentary Hors d'oeuvres) |
Chair: |
|
|
|
|
Day 3: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 |
Session 8: Improving forecast skill |
Chair: David Unger |
07:00-08:00 |
Continental Breakfast |
|
Location: Salons 3, 4, 6 |
08:00-08:20 |
Kathy Pegion |
|
A Conditional Skill Mask for Improved Seasonal Predictions |
08:20-08:40 |
Andrew Robertson |
|
Combining Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts
over Indonesia |
08:40-09:00 |
Dan Collins |
|
Advancing intraseasonal climate forecasts through use of
reforecasts |
09:00-09:20 |
Kate Thayer-Calder |
|
Evaluating Downdraft Parameterizations with High Resolution
CRM Data |
09:20-09:40 |
Nat Johnson |
|
Incorporating MJO and ENSO information into probabilistic
temperature forecasts over North America |
09:40-10:00 |
Jiming Jin |
|
An Improved Climate Dynamical Downscaling at Regional Scales |
10:00-10:20 |
Morning Break |
|
Location: Atrium |
Session 9: Improving and evaluating multi-model
ensemble forecasts |
Chair:
Debbie Hudson |
10:20-10:40 |
Huug van den Dool |
|
Homogeneous and heterogeneous predictability and forecast
skill in MME |
10:40-11:00 |
Emily Becker |
|
Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and
Monthly Prediction |
11:00-11:20 |
David Unger |
|
A Consolidated Seasonal Temperature Forecast based on the
National Multi-Model Ensemble |
11:20-11:40 |
Malaquias Pena |
|
International Multi-Model Ensemble: Products and Forecast
Skill Assessments |
11:40-1:00 |
Lunch (On Your Own) |
|
|
Session 10: Teleconnections and extratropical
variability |
Chair: Nat
Johnson |
1:00-1:20 |
David Thompson |
Invited |
On the leading patterns of variability in the extratropical
circulation |
1:20-1:40 |
Emily Riddle |
|
Exploiting the MJO in extended range forecasts for
mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies over North American |
1:40-2:00 |
Rebecca Smith |
|
Identifying Connections between Large-Scale Climate
Variability and the Local Hydroclimate of the Upper Colorado River Basin |
2:00-2:20 |
Nelun Fernando |
|
Factors driving the persistence of ENSO-led winter rainfall
deficits into late-spring and early-summer over Texas |
2:20-2:40 |
Amy Butler |
|
The equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El
Nino and La Nina |
2:40-3:00 |
Jason Furtado |
|
Eurasian Snow Cover, Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling, and
NH Wintertime Climate Variability in CMIP5 |
3:00-3:20 |
Afternoon Break |
|
Location: Atrium (with refreshments) |
Session 11: Global climate change impacts on
seasonal variability and prediction |
Chair:
Emily Riddle |
3:20-3:40 |
David Randall |
Invited |
The seasonal cycle of Arctic Sea ice in a warming climate |
3:40-4:00 |
Michelle L'Heureux |
|
Tropical Pacific Sea Level Pressure Trends Indicating a
Strengthening Walker Circulation |
4:00-4:20 |
S-Y Simon Wang |
|
Is Global Warming enhancing ENSO precursors in the Western
North Pacific? |
4:20-4:40 |
Indrani Pal |
|
Magnitude and significance of observed trends in
precipitation frequency over the U.S. |
4:40-5:00 |
Paula Gonzalez |
|
Impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on precipitation in
South Eastern South America in 20th Century |
6:30-9:00 |
Dinner Banquet |
|
Salons 1, 2, 5 |
|
Kevin Trenberth |
KEYNOTE |
|
|
|
|
|
Day 4: Thursday, October 25, 2012 |
07:00-08:00 |
Continental Breakfast |
|
Location: Salons 3, 4, 6 |
Session 12: Drought Monitoring and Data
Assimilation |
Chair: Annarita Mariotti |
08:00-08:20 |
Siegfried Schubert |
Invited |
An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force |
8:20-8:40 |
Jesse Meng |
|
A Retrospective GLDAS for Improved Global Land Surface
Climatology |
8:40-9:00 |
Christa Peters –Lidard |
|
The Impact of Soil Moisture and Snow Assimilation on NLDAS
Drought Metrics |
09:00-09:20 |
Martha C. Anderson |
|
Use of remotely sensed evapotranspiration maps for
monitoring drought impacts at field to continental scales |
09:20-09:40 |
Amir AghaKouchak |
|
A Multi-Index Standardized Drought Monitoring and Prediction
Framework |
09:40-10:00 |
Morning Break |
|
Location: Atrium |
Session 13: Drought and hydroclimate prediction |
Chair:
Christa Peters –Lidard |
10:00-10:20 |
Xin Zhong Liang |
Invited |
CWRF Optimized Physics Ensemble Modeling to Advance U.S.
Drought Forecasts |
10:20-10:40 |
Eric Wood |
|
Assessment of the NMME system for the prediction of Drought
over the NIDIS test beds |
10:40-11:00 |
Kingtse Mo |
|
Do Climate Forecast System (CFSV2) forecasts improve
seasonal soil moisture prediction? |
11:00-11:20 |
Randy Koster |
|
Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and
Precipitation Downscaling |
11:20-11:40 |
R.W. Arritt |
|
Precipitation intensity in downscaled seasonal forecasts |
11:40-12:00 |
Jin-Ho Yoon |
|
Comparison of regional downscaling methods: dynamic
downscaling using MRED vs. statistical downscaling methods |
12:00-1:20 |
Lunch (On Your Own) |
|
|
Session 14: Physical mechanisms
and case studies for extreme hydroclimate events |
Chair:
Siegfried Schubert |
1:20-1:40 |
Martin Hoerling |
|
Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions
Imminent in the Great Plains? |
1:40-2:00 |
Charles Jones |
|
A case study of predictability of extreme precipitation over
the CONUS and the MJO |
2:00-2:20 |
Wenhong Li |
|
Summer precipitation variability over the Southeastern
United States analyzed from atmospheric moisture budget |
2:20-2:40 |
Rong Fu |
|
Assessing Future Changes of Drought over South-Central
United States in Supporting Regional Water Resource Planning |
2:40-3:00 |
Ben Kirtman |
|
Predictability of 2006-07 Drought in Southeast US |
3:00-3:20 |
Afternoon Break |
|
Location: Atrium (with refreshments) |
Session 15: Drought Information and Services |
Chair: Kingtse Mo |
3:20-3:40 |
Anthony Artusa |
Invited |
Current and future application of tools for Seasonal Drought
Prediction |
3:40-4:00 |
Michael Hayes |
Invited |
The Role of Monitoring and Prediction within Drought Risk
Management |
4:00-4:20 |
Kelly Redmond |
Invited |
The WestWide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at
Fine Spatial Scales |
4:20-4:40 |
Nolan Doesken |
Invited |
Enhanced drought monitoring and early warning activities in
the Upper Colorado River Basin |
4:40-5:00 |
Gregg Garfin |
Invited |
Drought Communication in the Southwest |
5:00-5:20 |
Mark Svoboda |
Invited |
Drought as a focal point for climate services: Tools of the
trade at the National Drought Mitigation Center |
6:00-8:00 |
Posters and social event |
|
Location: Salon 2 (cash wine bar
and complimentary refreshments) |
|
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