Subseasonal to seasonal long-range forecasting for the WMO RA IV

The WMO RCC-Washington provides forecast data and products from North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)*:

monthly and seasonal forecasts of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), precipitation and 2m air temperature
forecasts and hindcast data
verifications of monthly and seasonal forecasts (HSS and RPSS)

* The NMME consists of 7 models:

NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2),
Coupled Climate Models from Canada: CanCM4i (CCCma, Victoria, Canada) and GEM-NEMO (RPN, Dorval, Canada),
NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) and GFDL Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution model using parameter set B (FLORB-01),
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5),
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4).

Monthly forecasts Seasonal forecasts Forecast and hindcast data

NMME MONTHLY FORECASTS

Sea Surface Temperature
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean

Precipitation
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
RA IV

2m air temperature
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
RA IV

NMME SEASONAL FORECASTS

Sea Surface Temperature
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean

Precipitation
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
RA IV

2m air temperature
	Anomalies	Standard Anomalies	Skill Masked Standard Anomalies	Skill Maps	3-Category Probabilities
RA IV

FORECAST AND HINDCAST DATA

Monthly and seasonal forecast and hindcast data are provided in the GrADS readable format (binary format) and in the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) format (ASCII text) which can be used as input in the IRI/CPT software for further tailoring of the climate products.

Forecast data

Monthly forecasts [binary format] [CPT format]
Seasonal forecasts [binary format] [CPT format]

Hindcast data

Monthly hindcasts [CPT format]
Seasonal hindcasts [CPT format]

Available data for downloading
Products	Variables	Temporal scale	Lead time	Spatial scale	Period	Models	Format
Forecasts	SST, T2m, RR (+ anomalies and standard anomalies)	monthly	1- to 8-month	global	the last two years	CFSv2, CMC1, CMC2, GFDL, GFDL-FLOR, NASA, NCAR-CCSM4, NMME	binary
	SST, T2m, RR (+ anomalies and standard anomalies)	seasonal	1- to 6-month
	SST, T2m, RR skills	monthly, seasonal	1-month
	SST, T2m, RR	monthly, seasonal	1- to 6-month				CPT
Hindcasts	SST, T2m, RR	monthly, seasonal	1- to 6-month		1982-2010		CPT

VERIFICATIONS FOR MONTHLY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS

This table provides the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) maps for monthly precipitation and 2m air temperature anomaly forecasts, according to the month of initial conditions.

HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.

Precipitation
	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
HSS
RPSS

Temperature
	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
HSS
RPSS

VERIFICATIONS FOR SEASONAL DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS

HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.

Precipitation
	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
HSS
RPSS

Temperature
	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
HSS
RPSS


NOAA/ National Weather Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Page last modified: February 12, 2012	Disclaimer Information Quality Credits Glossary	Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) About Us Career Opportunities